ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
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Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.8%
-
BTTS No
56%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Almirante Brown Win 58.8%
Draw 9.1%
Deportivo Madryn Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almirante Brown0.89
Deportivo Madryn1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almirante Brown Almirante Brown
WWDLW
22 GF / 16 GA
Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn
WLDWL
38 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.62
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
7
BTTS Yes
14
5
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 26 matches
Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn 27 matches
Almirante Brown Statistic Deportivo Madryn
11 Wins 11
8 Draws 10
7 Losses 6
22 Goals For 38
16 Goals Against 26
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.62 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
7 BTTS Yes 14
11 Over 1.5 19
5 Over 2.5 14
2 Over 3.5 7
15 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Madryn. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Madryn having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Almirante Brown Analysis

Almirante Brown arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 38 points after 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 20:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Madryn Analysis

Deportivo Madryn sit 6 with 37 points after 24 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, while the 32:24 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Almirante Brown won 0 times, Deportivo Madryn won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:10 from Almirante Brown's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
H2H summary: Almirante Brown wins 0, draws 0, Deportivo Madryn wins 4
Last matches: Almirante Brown
22.08.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Defensores De Belgrano
2
0
W
16.08.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Tristan Suarez
1
3
L
08.08.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Ciudad de Bolívar
2
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Racing Cordoba
2
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
0
0
D
17.07.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
CA Estudiantes
0
0
D
11.07.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
All Boys
1
1
D
04.07.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Los Andes
1
0
W
21.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
3
1
W
14.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Godoy Cruz
1
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Moron
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Colon Santa Fe
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
San Miguel
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
San Telmo
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Acassuso
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Chaco For Ever
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Madryn
1
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Defensores De Belgrano
0
2
L
Last matches: Deportivo Madryn
25.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Godoy Cruz
2
0
W
21.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Atletico Mitre
4
0
W
16.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
San Martin Tucuman
2
2
D
08.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
CA Estudiantes
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
All Boys
2
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Los Andes
0
0
D
11.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Moron
2
2
D
05.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Colon Santa Fe
1
2
L
21.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Los Andes
2
1
W
14.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
San Miguel
2
2
D
07.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
San Telmo
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Acassuso
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Chaco For Ever
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Ferro Carril Oeste
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Central Norte
3
2
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Racing Cordoba
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Defensores De Belgrano
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Ciudad de Bolívar
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Almirante Brown
2
1
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Atletico Mitre
3
1
W
H2H: Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Madryn
12.04.26
H2H
Deportivo Madryn
Almirante Brown
2
1
L
20.10.24
H2H
Deportivo Madryn
Almirante Brown
5
1
L
02.06.24
H2H
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Madryn
0
1
L
26.06.22
H2H
Deportivo Madryn
Almirante Brown
2
0
L
Last matches: Almirante Brown
08.08.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Ciudad de Bolívar
2
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Racing Cordoba
2
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
CA Estudiantes
0
0
D
04.07.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Los Andes
1
0
W
21.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
3
1
W
14.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Godoy Cruz
1
0
W
30.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Colon Santa Fe
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
San Telmo
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Chaco For Ever
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Defensores De Belgrano
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Tristan Suarez
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
All Boys
2
1
W
27.12.20
Pri
Almirante Brown
Acassuso
2
1
W
19.12.20
Pri
Almirante Brown
Comunicaciones
2
0
W
05.12.20
Pri
Almirante Brown
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
08.03.20
Pri
Almirante Brown
Flandria
1
1
D
25.02.20
Pri
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Armenio
2
0
W
08.02.20
Pri
Almirante Brown
Sacachispas
1
1
D
01.12.19
Pri
Almirante Brown
Talleres Remedios
0
0
D
H2H at home: Almirante Brown
02.06.24
H2H
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Madryn
0
1
L
Last matches: Deportivo Madryn
16.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
San Martin Tucuman
2
2
D
08.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
CA Estudiantes
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Los Andes
0
0
D
11.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Moron
2
2
D
07.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
San Telmo
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Chaco For Ever
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Central Norte
3
2
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Racing Cordoba
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Ciudad de Bolívar
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Atletico Mitre
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
All Boys
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Godoy Cruz
0
0
D
25.02.26
Cop
Deportivo Madryn
San Martin S.J.
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
Colon Santa Fe
1
2
L
05.02.21
Pri
Deportivo Madryn
San Telmo
0
0
D
H2H away: Deportivo Madryn
02.06.24
H2H
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Madryn
0
1
W

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 16 4 6 32:23 9 52
W W W L L
2 25 13 6 6 41:24 17 45
D W W L W
3 26 12 9 5 34:20 14 45
W W W D L
4 26 11 8 7 22:16 6 41
W L W W D
5 25 10 10 5 36:24 12 40
W D W W D
6 25 11 7 7 29:22 7 40
W L W W W
7 26 9 8 9 23:22 1 35
L W L D L
8 26 8 11 7 22:23 -1 35
D L L L W
9 25 8 9 8 20:15 5 33
L L L L D
10 26 8 8 10 24:29 -5 32
D D W L W
11 25 6 11 8 20:25 -5 29
L W L L D
12 26 6 11 9 25:33 -8 29
L D W W D
13 25 6 9 10 17:25 -8 27
W D D W L
14 26 5 12 9 15:24 -9 27
L W D L D
15 25 5 11 9 16:23 -7 26
L D L D D
16 25 6 7 12 22:29 -7 25
W L L W W
17 25 5 9 11 20:29 -9 24
D L L W L
18 25 5 7 13 18:30 -12 22
L D L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation