ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
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Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds 2.37
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 3.29
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.2%
2.37
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
3.29
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.57
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Almirante Brown Win 59.2%
Draw 11.2%
Atletico Mitre Win 29.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almirante Brown0.83
Atletico Mitre0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almirante Brown Almirante Brown
WWDLW
10 GF / 11 GA
Atletico Mitre Atletico Mitre
WLDWL
17 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.59
Average Goals Scored
1
0.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
4
BTTS Yes
9
3
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 17 matches
Atletico Mitre Atletico Mitre 17 matches
Almirante Brown Statistic Atletico Mitre
6 Wins 3
5 Draws 8
6 Losses 6
10 Goals For 17
11 Goals Against 20
0.59 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
4 BTTS Yes 9
5 Over 1.5 12
3 Over 2.5 7
0 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Atletico Mitre having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Mitre. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Almirante Brown Analysis

Almirante Brown sit 8 with 20 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 9:11 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Vera (2 goals), T. Almada (2 goals), E. Martinez (1 goals), with creative support from L. Iglesias (2 assists), S. Vera (1 assists), T. Almada (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Mitre Analysis

Atletico Mitre are currently 13 in the standings with 17 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 17:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Machado (5 goals), G. Fernandez (2 goals), I. Antunes (2 goals), with creative support from A. Ramirez (2 assists), M. Machado (1 assists), I. Antunes (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Almirante Brown won 3 times, Atletico Mitre won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:6 from Almirante Brown's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
H2H summary: Almirante Brown wins 3, draws 1, Atletico Mitre wins 3
Last matches: Almirante Brown
14.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Godoy Cruz
1
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Moron
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Colon Santa Fe
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
San Miguel
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
San Telmo
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Acassuso
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Chaco For Ever
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Madryn
1
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Defensores De Belgrano
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Tristan Suarez
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Ciudad de Bolívar
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Racing Cordoba
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
CA Estudiantes
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
All Boys
2
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Los Andes
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Mitre
14.06.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Los Andes
0
3
L
07.06.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Godoy Cruz
1
2
L
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Deportivo Moron
1
3
L
24.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Colon Santa Fe
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
San Miguel
4
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
San Telmo
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Acassuso
2
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Chaco For Ever
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Ferro Carril Oeste
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Central Norte
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Deportivo Madryn
1
3
L
29.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Club Atlético Güemes
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Defensores De Belgrano
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Ciudad de Bolívar
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Racing Cordoba
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
CA Estudiantes
1
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
All Boys
1
2
L
H2H: Almirante Brown vs Atletico Mitre
20.07.25
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
W
16.03.25
H2H
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Brown
1
0
L
27.07.24
H2H
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Brown
2
1
L
10.03.24
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
W
21.08.22
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
W
01.08.21
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
0
0
D
22.03.21
H2H
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Brown
3
2
L
Last matches: Almirante Brown
14.06.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Godoy Cruz
1
0
W
30.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Colon Santa Fe
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
San Telmo
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Chaco For Ever
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Defensores De Belgrano
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
Tristan Suarez
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Almirante Brown
All Boys
2
1
W
H2H at home: Almirante Brown
20.07.25
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
W
10.03.24
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
W
21.08.22
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
W
01.08.21
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Mitre
07.06.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Godoy Cruz
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Colon Santa Fe
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
San Telmo
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Chaco For Ever
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Central Norte
1
1
D
29.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Club Atlético Güemes
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Defensores De Belgrano
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
Racing Cordoba
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Mitre
All Boys
1
2
L
H2H away: Atletico Mitre
20.07.25
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
L
10.03.24
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
L
21.08.22
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
2
0
L
01.08.21
H2H
Almirante Brown
Atletico Mitre
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.63
Home 2.37
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.74
Draw 1.80
Home 3.22
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.16
Over 1.25 1.48
Over 1.5 1.71
Over 1.75 1.96
Over 2.0 2.45
Over 2.25 2.88
Over 2.5 3.29
Under 0.5 4.93
Under 1.25 2.60
Under 1.5 2.12
Under 1.75 1.84
Under 2.0 1.54
Under 2.25 1.40
Under 2.5 1.32
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.80
Home 2.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 1.80
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.00
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.17
Over 1.5 1.67
Over 2.5 3.40
Over 3.5 7.00
Over 4.5 19.00
Over 5.5 41.00
Under 0.5 5.00
Under 1.5 2.10
Under 2.5 1.33
Under 3.5 1.10
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.68
Draw 2.52
Home 2.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.05
Draw 1.66
Home 3.28
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.26
Draw 1.97
Home 2.76
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.13
Over 0.75 1.16
Over 1.0 1.22
Over 1.25 1.47
Over 1.5 1.68
Over 1.75 1.89
Over 2.0 2.26
Over 2.25 2.66
Over 2.5 3.04
Over 2.75 3.78
Over 3.0 5.35
Over 3.25 5.79
Over 3.5 6.15
Over 3.75 9.10
Over 4.0 10.00
Over 4.5 13.50
Over 5.5 22.00
Under 0.5 4.60
Under 0.75 4.05
Under 1.0 3.50
Under 1.25 2.49
Under 1.5 2.06
Under 1.75 1.81
Under 2.0 1.51
Under 2.25 1.37
Under 2.5 1.29
Under 2.75 1.19
Under 3.0 1.09
Under 3.25 1.07
Under 3.5 1.06
Under 3.75 1.02
Under 4.0 1.01
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.00

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 4 3 26:14 12 34
W W W W L
2 17 9 4 4 19:13 6 31
W W D W W
3 17 7 8 2 15:4 11 29
W D D W W
4 17 7 8 2 21:13 8 29
W D D D D
5 17 6 9 2 14:10 4 27
L D D W W
6 17 6 7 4 22:17 5 25
D D D W L
7 17 6 7 4 18:13 5 25
L W L W L
8 17 6 5 6 10:11 -1 23
W L D L D
9 17 6 5 6 12:14 -2 23
W D W L D
10 17 4 9 4 14:19 -5 21
D D D W L
11 17 5 5 7 16:19 -3 20
W D D L L
12 17 4 8 5 12:15 -3 20
L D W L D
13 17 5 3 9 12:17 -5 18
L W D W L
14 17 3 8 6 17:20 -3 17
L L L D W
15 17 3 8 6 12:16 -4 17
D D L L D
16 17 3 7 7 10:18 -8 16
L D D L W
17 17 3 6 8 10:16 -6 15
D L D L W
18 17 1 6 10 12:24 -12 9
L L D L D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation