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11.10.2026 14:15
UD Almería Stadium
Referee: Gonzalo Romero Freixas
Almeria
Match Timeline
Leganes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Leganes
🔄
45'
Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo ↔ Miguel De La Fuente
Almeria
⚽
52'
Miguel De La Fuente · Assist: Stefan Džodić
Almeria
⚽
57'
Miguel De La Fuente · Assist: Brian Cipenga
Almeria
⚽
61'
Daijiro Chirino · Assist: Quim junyent
Almeria
🔄
63'
Marvelous Antolín Garzón ↔ Francisco Montero
Leganes
🔄
63'
Miguel Atienza ↔ Yassine Kechta
Leganes
🔄
64'
Álvaro Tejero ↔ Enric Franquesa
Leganes
🔄
64'
Ismael Gharbi ↔ Patrick Soko
Leganes
VAR
66'
Dani Rodriguez
Leganes
🟨
66'
Yassine Kechta
Leganes
🟨
67'
Enric Franquesa
Leganes
🔄
71'
Álvaro Morata ↔ Álex Millán
Leganes
🔄
71'
Daijiro Chirino ↔ Marcos Luna
Almeria
🔄
71'
Quim junyent ↔ Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo
Almeria
🟨
74'
Javier Muñoz Jiménez
Almeria
🟨
77'
Francisco Montero
Leganes
🔄
81'
Brian Cipenga ↔ Jon Morcillo
Almeria
🟨
82'
Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo
Almeria
🔄
86'
Javier Muñoz Jiménez ↔ Léo Baptistão
Almeria
🟨
90'
Álex Millán
Leganes

Almeria vs Leganes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.62
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.84
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.7%
1.62 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.84 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.3%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 75.7%
Draw 4.4%
Leganes Win 19.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.37
Leganes0.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
20 GF / 8 GA
Leganes Leganes
WLDWL
15 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
0.88
0.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
2
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
6
4.25
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 13 matches
Leganes Leganes 17 matches
Almeria Statistic Leganes
9 Wins 6
0 Draws 5
4 Losses 6
20 Goals For 15
8 Goals Against 19
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
0.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
2 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 8
4.25 Shots On Goal 3.75
13.38 Total Shots 11.13
4 Corners 3
54.9% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Almeria's more proactive style and Leganes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Leganes. Almeria come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Almeria arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 18 points compared to Leganes in 13 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Almeria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leganes in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leganes having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Almeria Analysis

Almeria approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 18 points after 8 outings. With 6 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:5, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Miguel de la Fuente (3 goals), B. Cipenga (2 goals), Javi Muñoz (2 goals), with creative support from B. Cipenga (3 assists), Javi Muñoz (2 assists), Miguel de la Fuente (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Leganes Analysis

With 11 points from 8 games and a place of 13, Leganes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Naim García (2 goals), Ismaël Gharbi (2 goals), P. Soko (1 goals), with creative support from Naim García (1 assists), Ismaël Gharbi (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 3 times, Leganes won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from Almeria's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Leganes 3-5-2
H2H summary: Almeria wins 3, draws 2, Leganes wins 2

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:7 11 21
W W W W W
2 8 6 2 0 15:3 12 20
D W W W W
3 8 6 0 2 13:5 8 18
W W W W W
4 9 4 4 1 10:7 3 16
W D D W L
5 8 4 2 2 14:8 6 14
D W W L W
6 8 4 2 2 8:3 5 14
D L W W D
7 8 4 2 2 12:9 3 14
L W W W D
8 8 4 1 3 8:8 0 13
W L W L L
9 8 3 2 3 13:13 0 11
W L L D L
10 8 3 2 3 8:8 0 11
L W L W D
11 9 3 2 4 14:15 -1 11
W L D L L
12 8 3 2 3 12:13 -1 11
D L L W D
13 9 3 2 4 10:11 -1 11
W W L L W
14 8 3 2 3 10:12 -2 11
L D L W D
15 8 3 2 3 6:11 -5 11
L L W L D
16 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
D W D L W
17 9 3 0 6 14:20 -6 9
L W L W L
18 9 2 2 5 12:17 -5 8
L L L L W
19 8 1 4 3 11:10 1 7
W D L L L
20 8 2 1 5 12:15 -3 7
D W L L L
21 9 1 2 6 8:20 -12 5
L D W D L
22 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L D L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation