NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
13.05.2026 18:00
Yanmar Stadion
Referee: A. Lindhout
Almere City FC
Match Timeline
Willem II
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
32'
S. Bamba · Assist: F. Stam
Willem II
🔄
61'
F. Druijf ↔ J. Rijkhoff
Almere City FC
🔄
61'
J. Jacobs ↔ O. de Nijs
Almere City FC
🔄
66'
S. Bamba ↔ S. Baartmans
Willem II
🔄
76'
M. de Haan ↔ E. Cornelisse
Almere City FC
🔄
76'
B. Reith ↔ A. Sam
Almere City FC
🔄
81'
M. El Allouchi ↔ P. van Loon
Willem II
🔄
84'
M. Dors ↔ R. Providence
Almere City FC
🟨
85'
U. van Aalst
Willem II

Almere City FC vs Willem II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
57.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Almere City FC Win 45.2%
Draw 6%
Willem II Win 48.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almere City FC1.73
Willem II1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almere City FC Almere City FC
WWDLW
98 GF / 71 GA
Willem II Willem II
WLDWL
62 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
2.18
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
31
BTTS Yes
22
35
Over 2.5
21
6.2
Shots on Goal
5.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almere City FC Almere City FC 45 matches
Willem II Willem II 41 matches
Almere City FC Statistic Willem II
24 Wins 22
5 Draws 9
16 Losses 10
98 Goals For 62
71 Goals Against 43
2.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
31 BTTS Yes 22
41 Over 1.5 31
35 Over 2.5 21
26 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 14
4 Failed To Score 5
6.2 Shots On Goal 5.38
16.73 Total Shots 14.28
6.83 Corners 5.59
48.1% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Willem II have the edge after taking the first leg 2-1, leaving Almere City FC needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Almere City FC had more of the ball in the first leg (56% possession compared to 44%). both sides produced the same number of shots on target. Almere City FC also attempted more passes (512 to 399) and completed 427. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Willem II. Willem II look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Willem II having the stronger overall control.

Almere City FC Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Almere City FC arrive from a league campaign that has them 5 with 58 points after 38 matches. The return of 18 wins, 4 draws, and 16 defeats, together with a 78:63 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by J. Rijkhoff (18 goals), F. Druijf (15 goals), E. Poku (11 goals), with creative support from J. Kadile (7 assists), M. de Haan (7 assists), E. Poku (6 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Willem II Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Willem II arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 68 points after 38 matches. Their record of 20 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats with goals at 59:42 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on D. Haen (18 goals), Thomas Verheydt (10 goals), N. Doodeman (6 goals), with creative support from N. Doodeman (17 assists), D. Haen (4 assists), Thomas Verheydt (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Almere City FC won 2 times, Willem II won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Almere City FC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Almere City FC 4-3-3 / Willem II 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Almere City FC wins 2, draws 1, Willem II wins 6

Standings

Eerste Divisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 29 2 7 90:37 53 89
W W L W W
2 38 23 9 6 75:48 27 78
W L D D L
3 38 20 8 10 59:42 17 68
W L W W D
4 38 18 9 11 74:58 16 63
D L L W D
5 38 18 4 16 78:63 15 58
L L D W W
6 38 16 10 12 71:59 12 58
D L W D W
7 38 17 5 16 66:64 2 56
L L W W L
8 38 14 13 11 59:54 5 55
L D L D W
9 38 14 9 15 65:69 -4 51
L L L D L
10 38 12 11 15 48:56 -8 47
L L W D L
11 38 14 5 19 51:69 -18 47
W L L L D
12 38 12 10 16 58:62 -4 46
W D W L L
13 38 13 6 19 50:58 -8 45
W L D L W
14 38 12 9 17 58:72 -14 45
W D L W D
15 38 15 11 12 64:55 9 44
L D W W D
16 38 11 11 16 54:64 -10 44
W W W W L
17 38 12 4 22 61:76 -15 40
W L L L W
18 38 10 9 19 42:62 -20 39
L W D D L
19 38 9 11 18 41:73 -32 38
L D D L L
20 38 9 8 21 50:73 -23 35
L W L L L
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