ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Tres de Febrero
Almagro
Match Timeline
Atletico DE Rafaela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
L. Busto
Almagro
🟨
53'
J. Bustos
Almagro
🟨
54'
N. Cainelli
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
60'
J. Bustos ↔ C. Salto
Almagro
🔄
60'
E. Martinez ↔ T. Dornell
Almagro
🔄
67'
G. Esparza ↔ L. Moscoloni
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
75'
L. Albertengo ↔ M. Quiroga
Atletico DE Rafaela
83'
T. Dornell · Assist: C. Salto
Almagro
🟨
85'
C. Salto
Almagro
🔄
86'
J. Orlando ↔ J. Fernandes
Almagro
🔄
86'
T. Macies ↔ P. Palacio
Almagro
🔄
86'
N. Cainelli ↔ J. Bonifacio
Atletico DE Rafaela
🟨
90+1'
L. Moscoloni
Atletico DE Rafaela
🔄
90'
F. Bustamante ↔ N. Tolosa
Almagro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 71.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.2%
-
BTTS No
71.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Almagro Win 65.2%
Draw 6%
Atletico DE Rafaela Win 28.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almagro0.81
Atletico DE Rafaela0.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almagro Almagro
WWDLW
15 GF / 19 GA
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela
WLDWL
14 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
0.74
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
0.79
6
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almagro Almagro 18 matches
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela 19 matches
Almagro Statistic Atletico DE Rafaela
6 Wins 7
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 6
15 Goals For 14
19 Goals Against 15
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 0.74
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 0.79
6 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 1
6 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico DE Rafaela's more proactive style and Almagro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico DE Rafaela. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Atletico DE Rafaela having the stronger overall control. Atletico DE Rafaela carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 27 points while Almagro sit 12 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Almagro Analysis

Almagro are currently 12 in the standings with 22 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 15:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico DE Rafaela Analysis

Placed 4 with 27 points from 18 outings, Atletico DE Rafaela continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 14:12 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Almagro won 6 times, Atletico DE Rafaela won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:13 from Almagro's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
H2H summary: Almagro wins 6, draws 3, Atletico DE Rafaela wins 3

Lineups

Almagro
Formation
Atletico DE Rafaela
E. Gonzalez
E. Gonzalez
G. Asis
G. Asis
J. Vitale
J. Vitale
E. Silcan
E. Silcan
J. Marchioni
J. Marchioni
F. Bustamante
F. Bustamante
L. Busto
L. Busto
J. Orlando
J. Orlando
J. Bustos
J. Bustos
E. Martinez
E. Martinez
T. Macies
T. Macies
M. Bergia
M. Bergia
N. Ramos
N. Ramos
A. Solveyra
A. Solveyra
L. Flores
L. Flores
L. Albertengo
L. Albertengo
G. Fernandez
G. Fernandez
E. Wuattier
E. Wuattier
N. Cainelli
N. Cainelli
J. Capurro
J. Capurro
G. Esparza
G. Esparza
M. Moreno
M. Moreno
Almagro 3-2-1 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
E. Gonzalez
G
4
G. Asis
D
2
J. Vitale
D
3
E. Silcan
D
5
J. Marchioni
M
10
F. Bustamante
↓ 90'
M
6
L. Busto
🟨 32'
7
J. Orlando
↓ 86'
F
8
J. Bustos
↓ 60' 🟨 53'
9
E. Martinez
↓ 60'
11
T. Macies
↓ 86'
Substitutes
12
J. P. Zozaya
G
13
S. Chamorro
14
N. Tolosa
↑ 90'
D
15
M. Laba
M
16
J. Fernandes
↑ 86'
17
P. Palacio
↑ 86'
F
18
C. Salto
🎯 83' ↑ 60' 🟨 85'
19
T. Lopez
20
T. Dornell
⚽ 83' ↑ 60'
Atletico DE Rafaela 1-1-1 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
M. Bergia
G
6
N. Ramos
D
4
A. Solveyra
8
L. Flores
M
9
L. Albertengo
↓ 75'
F
2
G. Fernandez
3
E. Wuattier
7
N. Cainelli
↓ 86' 🟨 54'
5
J. Capurro
11
G. Esparza
↓ 67'
10
M. Moreno
Substitutes
12
R. Martinez
13
V. Mondino
14
L. Moscoloni
↑ 67' 🟨 90+1'
15
E. Pepino
16
M. Fernandez
17
A. Obando
18
M. Pardo
F
19
J. Bonifacio
↑ 86'
20
M. Quiroga
↑ 75'
F
Last matches: Almagro
22.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
0
D
15.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
0
2
L
09.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Quilmes
1
1
D
05.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
27.07.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
3
1
W
12.07.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin Tucuman
0
3
L
20.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
2
0
W
13.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Agropecuario
2
1
W
06.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Club Atlético Güemes
2
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Chacarita Juniors
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin S.J.
1
2
L
11.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Nueva Chicago
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Temperley
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Maipu
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
6
L
11.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Patronato
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
0
W
Last matches: Atletico DE Rafaela
24.08.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Club Atlético Güemes
0
0
D
14.08.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Defensores De Belgrano
0
0
D
08.08.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Chacarita Juniors
1
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
San Martin S.J.
1
1
D
25.07.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Nueva Chicago
1
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Temperley
0
2
L
11.07.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Deportivo Maipu
1
3
L
23.06.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Nueva Chicago
0
0
D
14.06.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Patronato
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Colegiales
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
0
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Midland
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Atlanta
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
San Martin Tucuman
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Gimnasia Jujuy
0
0
D
20.04.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Agropecuario
4
1
W
13.04.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Club Atlético Güemes
1
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Defensores De Belgrano
1
1
D
H2H: Almagro vs Atletico DE Rafaela
04.07.26
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
14.02.26
H2H
Atletico DE Rafaela
Almagro
0
0
D
18.08.24
H2H
Atletico DE Rafaela
Almagro
2
3
W
30.03.24
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
17.04.22
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
3
1
W
28.08.21
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
18.04.21
H2H
Atletico DE Rafaela
Almagro
4
1
L
18.04.20
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
0
D
02.11.19
H2H
Atletico DE Rafaela
Almagro
3
1
L
07.03.19
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
1
D
25.11.18
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
11.11.17
H2H
Atletico DE Rafaela
Almagro
1
1
D
07.06.17
H2H
Atletico De Rafaela
Almagro
1
0
L
Last matches: Almagro
22.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Colegiales
0
0
D
05.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Almagro
Midland
1
1
D
20.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
2
0
W
13.06.26
Pri
Almagro
Agropecuario
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Club Atlético Güemes
2
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin S.J.
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Almagro
Temperley
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Almagro
Patronato
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Almagro
Quilmes
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Almagro
San Martin Tucuman
0
1
L
28.11.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
4
0
W
13.11.15
Pri
Almagro
Atlanta
0
0
D
31.10.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Español
3
2
W
04.10.15
Pri
Almagro
Fénix
0
1
L
22.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
1
0
W
15.09.15
Pri
Almagro
Villa San Carlos
2
0
W
29.08.15
Pri
Almagro
Barracas Central
0
1
L
17.08.15
Pri
Almagro
Deportivo Riestra
2
0
W
H2H at home: Almagro
04.07.26
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
30.03.24
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
17.04.22
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
3
1
W
28.08.21
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
18.04.20
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
0
D
07.03.19
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
1
D
25.11.18
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
W
Last matches: Atletico DE Rafaela
24.08.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Club Atlético Güemes
0
0
D
01.08.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
San Martin S.J.
1
1
D
17.07.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Temperley
0
2
L
23.06.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Nueva Chicago
0
0
D
14.06.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Patronato
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Atlanta
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
San Martin Tucuman
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Tristan Suarez
0
0
D
30.03.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Defensores De Belgrano
1
1
D
28.03.26
Cop
Atletico DE Rafaela
Belgrano Cordoba
0
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Chacarita Juniors
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Atletico DE Rafaela
Deportivo Maipu
1
2
L
H2H away: Atletico DE Rafaela
04.07.26
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
L
30.03.24
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
L
17.04.22
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
3
1
L
28.08.21
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
L
18.04.20
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
0
D
07.03.19
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
1
D
25.11.18
H2H
Almagro
Atletico DE Rafaela
1
0
L

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 13 9 3 28:13 15 48
W W W W W
2 26 13 6 7 39:32 7 45
D W L L L
3 26 11 10 5 29:22 7 43
W W L L W
4 25 13 3 9 31:25 6 42
W L W L L
5 25 10 8 7 27:19 8 38
L D W D W
6 26 11 5 10 34:27 7 38
W W L W L
7 26 10 8 8 27:25 2 38
L D W W W
8 26 9 9 8 18:19 -1 36
D D W D W
9 26 8 11 7 26:23 3 35
W D D L L
10 26 8 8 10 27:22 5 32
L W D W D
11 24 8 8 8 26:24 2 32
W D D D L
12 25 8 7 10 23:25 -2 31
D L D W W
13 26 8 7 11 21:29 -8 31
D L D L D
14 25 7 8 10 20:24 -4 29
L L L W L
15 26 7 8 11 22:30 -8 29
L W W L W
16 26 7 6 13 19:28 -9 27
L D L L W
17 25 4 13 8 21:29 -8 25
D L D D L
18 26 5 7 14 21:43 -22 22
D D D L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation