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13.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: Micke Palomino, Peru
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
16'
A. Valera · Assist: G. Lapadula
Universitario
🟨
45+1'
Matías Di Benedetto
Universitario
🔄
51'
A. Burlamaqui ↔ A. Cantero
Alianza Lima
🔄
58'
M. Antoni ↔ G. Chavez
Alianza Lima
🟨
64'
Federico Girotti
Alianza Lima
🔄
70'
G. Lapadula ↔ L. Alzugaray
Universitario
🔄
72'
J. Murrugarra ↔ H. Calcaterra
Universitario
🔄
77'
P. A. Quispe Cordova ↔ H. Fertoli
Universitario
⚽
77'
F. Girotti · Assist: J. Velez
Alianza Lima
🟨
84'
Horacio Calcaterra
Universitario
🟨
89'
Renzo Garcés
Alianza Lima
🟨
90+8'
Lisandro Alzugaray
Universitario
🔄
90+5'
E. Castillo ↔ L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
⚽
90'
L. Alzugaray
Universitario

Alianza Lima vs Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 42.7%
Draw 13.8%
Universitario Win 43.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.33
Universitario1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
45 GF / 20 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
54 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.54
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
1
14
BTTS Yes
18
10
Over 2.5
18
5.3
Shots on Goal
4.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 29 matches
Universitario Universitario 35 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Universitario
16 Wins 17
9 Draws 10
4 Losses 8
45 Goals For 54
20 Goals Against 35
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1
14 BTTS Yes 18
19 Over 1.5 25
10 Over 2.5 18
4 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 10
5.3 Shots On Goal 4.26
15.41 Total Shots 13.61
4.41 Corners 5.71
56.1% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Universitario in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universitario. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Placed 1 with 52 points from 24 outings, Alianza Lima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 40:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Eryc Castillo (12 goals), Jairo Vélez (3 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 45 points after 24 matches. With 13 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 39:24, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Valera (7 goals), G. Lapadula (4 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (4 assists), A. Valera (2 assists), Edison Flores (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 3 times, Universitario won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2 / Universitario 3-5-2
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 3, draws 4, Universitario wins 7

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 8 3 46:19 27 59
W W L D L
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 28 14 3 11 41:40 1 45
L W L W W
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 43:36 7 43
W W L W W
8 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
9 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
10 28 10 8 10 30:29 1 38
L D W L W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2