Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
88.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
64.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
75.9%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
70.3%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Alianza Lima
15 matches
UCV Moquegua
13 matches
| Alianza Lima | Statistic | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Draws | 1 |
| 2 | Losses | 7 |
| 26 | Goals For | 14 |
| 7 | Goals Against | 20 |
| 1.73 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 0.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.54 |
| 5 | BTTS Yes | 6 |
| 8 | Over 1.5 | 10 |
| 5 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 2 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 4.57 | Shots On Goal | 3.58 |
| 14.07 | Total Shots | 10 |
| 4.43 | Corners | 3.33 |
| 51.8% | Ball Possession | 39.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Lima's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 29 points compared to UCV Moquegua in 9 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward UCV Moquegua. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and UCV Moquegua in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Lima come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.
Alianza Lima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 29 points after 12 matches. With 9 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:5, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Castillo (7 goals), Paolo Guerrero (4 goals), R. Garces (4 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (4 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), J. Velez (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
UCV Moquegua sit 9 with 16 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 14:18 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Edgar Lastre (4 goals), J. Collazos (3 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (2 assists), Ricardo Chipao (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 1 times, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alianza Lima
Home
|
26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 42:18 | 24 | 53 |
L
D
L
D
W
|
| 2 | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 43:27 | 16 | 49 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 44:28 | 16 | 45 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 35:24 | 11 | 45 |
L
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 42 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 35:44 | -9 | 41 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 7 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44:37 | 7 | 40 |
W
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38:34 | 4 | 37 |
L
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 28:25 | 3 | 37 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45:39 | 6 | 35 |
W
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 25:28 | -3 | 32 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34:42 | -8 | 32 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38:52 | -14 | 31 |
W
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 34:36 | -2 | 30 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 40:50 | -10 | 27 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 |
UCV Moquegua
Away
|
26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 25 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
| 17 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 27:39 | -12 | 22 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 18 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30:47 | -17 | 15 |
L
L
L
L
L
|