PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: R. B. Perez
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
UCV Moquegua
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
E. Castillo · Assist: L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
🟨
40'
Y. Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🟨
59'
L. Advincula
Alianza Lima
🟨
60'
E. Lastre
UCV Moquegua
🔄
61'
N. Chavez ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
61'
Y. Zapata ↔ A. Davila
UCV Moquegua
🔄
70'
G. Gentile ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
70'
L. Ramos ↔ F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
76'
F. Girotti · Assist: J. Velez
Alianza Lima
🔄
78'
J. Collazos ↔ M. Negron
UCV Moquegua
80'
E. Lastre
UCV Moquegua
🟨
86'
R. Garces
Alianza Lima
🔄
88'
A. Perleche ↔ E. Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🔄
88'
C. Mejia ↔ D. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
90+2'
F. Gaibor ↔ A. Burlamaqui
Alianza Lima

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 88.1%
Draw 0%
UCV Moquegua Win 11.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.65
UCV Moquegua0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
26 GF / 7 GA
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WLDWL
14 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
5
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
9
4.57
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 15 matches
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 13 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic UCV Moquegua
10 Wins 5
3 Draws 1
2 Losses 7
26 Goals For 14
7 Goals Against 20
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
5 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 5
4.57 Shots On Goal 3.58
14.07 Total Shots 10
4.43 Corners 3.33
51.8% Ball Possession 39.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Lima's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 29 points compared to UCV Moquegua in 9 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward UCV Moquegua. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and UCV Moquegua in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Lima come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 29 points after 12 matches. With 9 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:5, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Castillo (7 goals), Paolo Guerrero (4 goals), R. Garces (4 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (4 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), J. Velez (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 9 with 16 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 14:18 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Edgar Lastre (4 goals), J. Collazos (3 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (2 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 1 times, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-4-2 / UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 1, draws 0, UCV Moquegua wins 0
Stats
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
1 Corner Kicks 0
12 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 1
13 Shots insidebox 3
3 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
526 Total passes 255
442 Passes accurate 176
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Alianza Lima
Formation
UCV Moquegua
A. Duarte
A. Duarte
L. Advincula
L. Advincula
R. Garces
R. Garces
M. Antoni
M. Antoni
M. Huaman
M. Huaman
E. Pavez
E. Pavez
J. Velez
🎯
J. Velez
F. Gaibor
F. Gaibor
G. Gentile
G. Gentile
E. Castillo
E. Castillo
L. Ramos
🎯
L. Ramos
C. Grados
C. Grados
A. Perleche
A. Perleche
J. Granda
J. Granda
C. Enciso
C. Enciso
N. Amasifuen
N. Amasifuen
N. Chavez
N. Chavez
R. Chipao
R. Chipao
E. Lastre
E. Lastre
C. Mejia
C. Mejia
Y. Zapata
Y. Zapata
J. Collazos
J. Collazos
Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
A. Duarte
G
17
L. Advincula
🟨 59'
D
6
R. Garces
🟨 86'
D
3
M. Antoni
D
13
M. Huaman
D
5
E. Pavez
M
20
J. Velez
🎯 76'
M
7
F. Gaibor
↓ 90+2'
M
25
G. Gentile
↓ 70'
M
8
E. Castillo
⚽ 37'
F
9
L. Ramos
🎯 37' ↓ 70'
F
Substitutes
23
G. Viscarra
G
27
K. Quevedo
F
31
C. Carbajal
D
18
A. Burlamaqui
↑ 90+2'
M
29
J. Archimbaud
M
4
G. Chavez
D
15
J. Castillo
↑ 70'
M
99
F. Girotti
⚽ 76' ↑ 70'
F
30
G. Motta
F
UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
C. Grados
G
4
A. Perleche
↓ 88'
D
30
J. Granda
D
3
C. Enciso
15
N. Amasifuen
D
10
N. Chavez
↓ 61'
25
R. Chipao
M
7
E. Lastre
⚽ 80' 🟨 60'
M
8
C. Mejia
↓ 88'
M
17
Y. Zapata
↓ 61' 🟨 40'
M
90
J. Collazos
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
29
R. Figueroa
G
88
R. Torres
M
13
J. Lojas
22
E. Montenegro
↑ 88'
D
9
M. Negron
↑ 78'
F
20
D. Ramirez
↑ 88'
M
24
K. Moreno
D
14
C. Ramirez
↑ 61'
16
A. Davila
↑ 61'
F
Last matches: Alianza Lima
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Cienciano
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Cusco
8
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
ADT
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Universitario
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
10.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
12.02.26
CON
Alianza Lima
2 de Mayo
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
05.02.26
CON
Alianza Lima
2 de Mayo
0
1
L
30.01.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Alianza Lima
Inter Miami
3
0
W
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
H2H: Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua
03.05.26
H2H
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
Last matches: Alianza Lima
24.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Cusco
8
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Sport Boys
1
0
W
12.02.26
CON
Alianza Lima
2 de Mayo
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Lima
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Alianza Lima
Inter Miami
3
0
W
H2H at home: Alianza Lima
03.05.26
H2H
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
H2H away: UCV Moquegua
03.05.26
H2H
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
2
1
L

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)