03.05.2026 01:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: R. B. Perez
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
UCV Moquegua
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
E. Castillo · Assist: L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
🟨
40'
Y. Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🟨
59'
L. Advincula
Alianza Lima
🟨
60'
E. Lastre
UCV Moquegua
🔄
61'
N. Chavez ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
61'
Y. Zapata ↔ A. Davila
UCV Moquegua
🔄
70'
G. Gentile ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
70'
L. Ramos ↔ F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
76'
F. Girotti · Assist: J. Velez
Alianza Lima
🔄
78'
J. Collazos ↔ M. Negron
UCV Moquegua
80'
E. Lastre
UCV Moquegua
🟨
86'
R. Garces
Alianza Lima
🔄
88'
A. Perleche ↔ E. Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🔄
88'
C. Mejia ↔ D. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
90+2'
F. Gaibor ↔ A. Burlamaqui
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 88.1%
Draw 0%
UCV Moquegua Win 11.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.65
UCV Moquegua0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
26 GF / 7 GA
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WLDWL
14 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
5
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
9
4.57
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 15 matches
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 13 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic UCV Moquegua
10 Wins 5
3 Draws 1
2 Losses 7
26 Goals For 14
7 Goals Against 20
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
5 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 5
4.57 Shots On Goal 3.58
14.07 Total Shots 10
4.43 Corners 3.33
51.8% Ball Possession 39.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Lima's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 29 points compared to UCV Moquegua in 9 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward UCV Moquegua. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and UCV Moquegua in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Lima come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 29 points after 12 matches. With 9 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:5, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Castillo (7 goals), Paolo Guerrero (4 goals), R. Garces (4 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (4 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), J. Velez (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 9 with 16 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 14:18 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Edgar Lastre (4 goals), J. Collazos (3 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (2 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 1 times, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-4-2 / UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 1, draws 0, UCV Moquegua wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2