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14.11.2026 21:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 74.4%
Draw 16%
FC Cajamarca Win 9.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.72
FC Cajamarca1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
W L W W W
9 GF / 5 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
W L L L L
5 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
19
BTTS Yes
23
15
Over 2.5
22
5.12
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 37 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 34 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic FC Cajamarca
21 Wins 9
9 Draws 7
7 Losses 18
58 Goals For 48
29 Goals Against 66
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
19 BTTS Yes 23
25 Over 1.5 28
15 Over 2.5 22
6 Over 3.5 15
14 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 10
5.12 Shots On Goal 3.91
16 Total Shots 11.64
4.88 Corners 3
56.2% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Alianza Lima's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 68 points compared to FC Cajamarca in 17 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC Cajamarca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FC Cajamarca. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Lima come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 68 points after 32 matches. The return of 20 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 53:23, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Castillo (17 goals), J. Vélez (5 goals), F. Girotti (3 goals), with creative support from J. Vélez (7 assists), E. Castillo (4 assists), M. Huamán (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 28 points from 32 games and a place of 17, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 44:65 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Arrasco (7 goals), B. Palacios (7 goals), H. Barcos (7 goals), with creative support from M. Arrasco (4 assists), S. Enciso (4 assists), B. Palacios (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 0 times, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.4%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-4-2 / FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 0, draws 1, FC Cajamarca wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 20 8 4 53:23 30 68
W L W W W
2 32 17 9 6 57:37 20 60
D W W W D
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 32 16 6 10 50:35 15 54
W L W L L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 32 13 8 11 39:51 -12 47
D L L W D
11 32 12 9 11 37:35 2 45
D W W L L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
14 32 8 12 12 44:47 -3 36
D D W L D
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 32 7 8 17 25:46 -21 29
D L L W L
18 32 5 8 19 38:58 -20 18
L W L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2