30.08.2026 00:30
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: S. Lozano
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Deportivo Garcilaso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
B. Da Silva
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
41'
F. Castelli
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
45+1'
J. Velez
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
A. Cantero ↔ C. Neira
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
Paolo Guerrero ↔ F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
🔄
63'
F. Castelli ↔ C. Olivares
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
72'
A. Salazar
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
75'
M. Antoni ↔ C. Carbajal
Alianza Lima
🔄
75'
L. Advincula ↔ A. Burlamaqui
Alianza Lima
🔄
75'
J. Velez ↔ L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
🟨
81'
R. Garces
Alianza Lima
🔄
82'
F. Arancibia ↔ A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
88'
B. Da Silva ↔ S. Ramirez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
90+3'
A. Gomez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
90+3'
N. Diaz
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.32
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.92
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
1.32
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.92
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.5%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 64.7%
Draw 4%
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.34
Deportivo Garcilaso1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
44 GF / 18 GA
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WLDWL
30 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.3
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
13
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
8
5.28
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 27 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 23 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Deportivo Garcilaso
16 Wins 11
8 Draws 6
3 Losses 6
44 Goals For 30
18 Goals Against 21
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
13 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 6
5.28 Shots On Goal 4.09
14.92 Total Shots 11.61
4.16 Corners 3.39
54% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Garcilaso. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 51 points compared to Deportivo Garcilaso in 6 on 36, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Deportivo Garcilaso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Garcilaso having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 51 points after 22 outings. With 15 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 39:13, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Eryc Castillo (12 goals), Jairo Vélez (3 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso are currently 6 in the standings with 36 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 26:20 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Christopher Olivares (6 goals), Beto Da Silva (5 goals), Francisco Arancibia (3 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (4 assists), Christopher Olivares (2 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 5 times, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:10 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2 / Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 5, draws 1, Deportivo Garcilaso wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
12 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
13 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
14 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2