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18.10.2026 01:30
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Referee: M. Espinoza
Alianza Lima
Match Timeline
Atletico Grau
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
K. Quevedo · Assist: F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
🟨
33'
Esteban Pavez
Alianza Lima
⚽
44'
A. Vasquez · Assist: G. E. Alfaro Martinez
Atletico Grau
🟨
45+2'
Kevin Quevedo
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
E. Pavez ↔ J. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
K. Quevedo ↔ G. Gentile
Alianza Lima
⚽
50'
E. Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
54'
M. Antoni ↔ G. Chavez
Alianza Lima
🔄
61'
A. Vasquez ↔ P. Lavandeira Hernandez
Atletico Grau
🔄
61'
D. Barreto ↔ N. Delgadillo
Atletico Grau
🟨
65'
Adrián Fernández
Atletico Grau
🔄
77'
A. Fernandez ↔ L. E. Benites Vargas
Atletico Grau
🔄
78'
R. Tapia ↔ Y. Ruidiaz
Atletico Grau
🟨
81'
Jairo Vélez
Alianza Lima
⚽
83'
J. Velez
Alianza Lima
🔄
85'
E. Castillo ↔ P. Cari
Alianza Lima
🟨
87'
Jesús Castillo
Alianza Lima
🔄
89'
G. E. Alfaro Martinez ↔ E. Rodas
Atletico Grau
🔄
90+3'
F. Girotti ↔ L. Ramos
Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 59.6%
Draw 19.4%
Atletico Grau Win 20.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.37
Atletico Grau0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
W L W L D
7 GF / 6 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
D L W L W
7 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
0.93
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
17
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
10
5
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 33 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 28 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic Atletico Grau
18 Wins 9
9 Draws 6
6 Losses 13
51 Goals For 26
25 Goals Against 31
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
17 BTTS Yes 10
23 Over 1.5 13
13 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 8
12 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 13
5 Shots On Goal 4.21
15.87 Total Shots 12.11
4.63 Corners 4.04
56.6% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Lima's more proactive style and Atletico Grau's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Grau. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 56 points compared to Atletico Grau in 13 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Atletico Grau in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Grau having the stronger overall control.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 56 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 16 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 44:18 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Castillo (14 goals), J. Vélez (3 goals), F. Girotti (3 goals), with creative support from J. Vélez (6 assists), E. Castillo (3 assists), M. Huamán (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 13 with 33 points after 28 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, while the 26:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Fernández (4 goals), R. Ruidíaz (2 goals), A. Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from R. Guarderas (3 assists), P. de la Cruz (2 assists), D. Barreto (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 7 times, Atletico Grau won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:6 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.6%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-4-2 / Atletico Grau 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 7, draws 2, Atletico Grau wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 20 8 4 53:23 30 68
W L W W W
2 32 17 9 6 57:37 20 60
D W W W D
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 32 16 6 10 50:35 15 54
W L W L L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 32 13 8 11 39:51 -12 47
D L L W D
11 32 12 9 11 37:35 2 45
D W W L L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
14 32 8 12 12 44:47 -3 36
D D W L D
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 32 7 8 17 25:46 -21 29
D L L W L
18 32 5 8 19 38:58 -20 18
L W L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2