19.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Alianza Lima vs ADT Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
59.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Lima Win 88%
Draw 6%
ADT Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Lima1.55
ADT0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WWDLW
46 GF / 22 GA
ADT ADT
WLDWL
28 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
15
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
13
5.07
Shots on Goal
4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 30 matches
ADT ADT 26 matches
Alianza Lima Statistic ADT
16 Wins 5
9 Draws 7
5 Losses 14
46 Goals For 28
22 Goals Against 41
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
15 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 7
5.07 Shots On Goal 4.6
15.39 Total Shots 12.88
4.5 Corners 4.48
55% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Lima's more proactive style and ADT's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Alianza Lima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 53 points compared to ADT in 17 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward ADT. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Lima expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and ADT in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward ADT having the stronger overall control. ADT arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Placed 1 with 53 points from 25 outings, Alianza Lima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses, while the 41:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Castillo (13 goals), J. Vélez (3 goals), F. Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from J. Vélez (4 assists), E. Castillo (3 assists), M. Huamán (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

ADT Analysis

ADT approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 22 points from 25 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 27:39, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through J. Bauman (4 goals), Jordan Guivin (3 goals), J. Rojas (2 goals), with creative support from C. Cabello (4 assists), J. Rojas (2 assists), John Narváez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Lima won 3 times, ADT won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:9 from Alianza Lima's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.89 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2 / ADT 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Lima wins 3, draws 3, ADT wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
12 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
13 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
14 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17
ADT Away
25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2