04.09.2026 20:15
Estadio Campeones del 36
Referee: Junior Rivera, Peru
Alianza Atletico
Match Timeline
UTC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
Hernan Lupu · Assist: Cristian Penilla
Alianza Atletico
7'
Cristian Penilla · Assist: Guillermo Larios
Alianza Atletico
🟨
21'
Arquímedes Figuera
UTC Cajamarca
VAR
24'
Hernan Lupu
Alianza Atletico
🔄
29'
Carlos Junior Huerto ↔ Joshua Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
29'
Manuel Ganoza · Assist: Luis Arce
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
37'
Jose Lujan
Alianza Atletico
🟨
37'
Manuel Ganoza
UTC Cajamarca
59'
Luis Arce · Assist: David Camacho
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
63'
Guillermo Larios
Alianza Atletico
🔄
65'
José María Ingratti ↔ Ariel Muñoz
Alianza Atletico
🔄
65'
Jairo Molina ↔ Jorge del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🔄
68'
David Camacho ↔ Marlon de Jesús
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
82'
Abdiel Arroyo ↔ Adolfo Muñoz
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
83'
Luis Arce ↔ David Dioses
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
84'
Marcos Lliuya ↔ Jhosep Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
84'
Guillermo Larios ↔ Valentin Robaldo
Alianza Atletico
🔄
89'
Cristian Penilla ↔ Franchesco Flores
Alianza Atletico
🟨
90+2'
Francesco Cavagna
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
90+5'
Anthony Gordillo
Alianza Atletico
90+6'
Ariel Muñoz
Alianza Atletico

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.64
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.89
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.5%
1.29
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Alianza Atletico Win 88%
Draw 5.6%
UTC Cajamarca Win 6.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Atletico1.48
UTC Cajamarca1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WWDLW
34 GF / 32 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WLDWL
29 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
15
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
13
4.83
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 25 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 26 matches
Alianza Atletico Statistic UTC Cajamarca
9 Wins 5
7 Draws 9
9 Losses 12
34 Goals For 29
32 Goals Against 43
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
15 BTTS Yes 16
18 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 7
4.83 Shots On Goal 4.25
13.58 Total Shots 12.38
3.38 Corners 4.58
45.1% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and UTC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. UTC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Atletico expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and UTC Cajamarca in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UTC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors UTC Cajamarca. Alianza Atletico arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 31 points compared to UTC Cajamarca in 18 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

So far, Alianza Atletico have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 31 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 30:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Guillermo Larios (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Hernan Lupú (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

With 15 points from 23 games and a place of 18, UTC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 25:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Marcos Lliuya (3 goals), Michel Rasmussen (3 goals), David Camacho (2 goals), with creative support from Marcos Lliuya (2 assists), Michel Rasmussen (2 assists), Adolfo Muñoz (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Atletico won 6 times, UTC Cajamarca won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:13 from Alianza Atletico's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1 / UTC Cajamarca 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Alianza Atletico wins 6, draws 6, UTC Cajamarca wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
12 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
13 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
14 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2