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18.10.2026 20:30
Estadio Campeones del 36
Referee: S. Lozano
Alianza Atletico
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
1'
Horacio Calcaterra
Universitario
🟨
8'
Stefano Fernández
Alianza Atletico
⚽
15'
R. Suarez
Universitario
⚽
23'
A. Polo · Assist: E. Flores
Universitario
🟨
42'
Ariel Muñoz
Alianza Atletico
⚽
45'
A. Valera · Assist: G. Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
46'
S. Fernandez ↔ W. Guzman
Alianza Atletico
🔄
46'
J. del Castillo ↔ J. Perez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
46'
J. Ingratti ↔ V. Robaldo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
52'
Anderson Santamaría
Universitario
⚽
56'
A. Munoz · Assist: C. Penilla
Alianza Atletico
🔄
57'
E. Flores ↔ L. Alzugaray
Universitario
🔄
66'
A. Gordillo ↔ E. Perleche
Alianza Atletico
🔄
67'
J. Concha ↔ J. Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
67'
G. Lapadula ↔ J. Rivera
Universitario
🔄
75'
A. Munoz ↔ J. Molina
Alianza Atletico
🔄
80'
A. Valera ↔ P. A. Quispe Cordova
Universitario
🔄
81'
H. Calcaterra ↔ H. Fertoli
Universitario
⚽
82'
J. Lujan
Universitario
🟨
90+2'
Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
Alianza Atletico

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alianza Atletico Win 55.2%
Draw 3.4%
Universitario Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Atletico1.33
Universitario1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
W W L W W
13 GF / 8 GA
Universitario Universitario
D L W D W
10 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
19
BTTS Yes
20
17
Over 2.5
21
5.07
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 29 matches
Universitario Universitario 38 matches
Alianza Atletico Statistic Universitario
12 Wins 18
7 Draws 11
10 Losses 9
43 Goals For 58
39 Goals Against 42
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
19 BTTS Yes 20
22 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 21
12 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 11
5.07 Shots On Goal 4.24
14.61 Total Shots 13.41
3.64 Corners 5.68
46.8% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universitario. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Alianza Atletico come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Atletico expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universitario in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

From their first 27 matches, Alianza Atletico have collected 40 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 40:35 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Penilla (8 goals), J. Molina (4 goals), A. Muñoz (3 goals), with creative support from C. Penilla (3 assists), G. Larios (3 assists), H. Lupú (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 49 points after 27 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with a 43:31 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Valera (10 goals), G. Lapadula (4 goals), É. Flores (3 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (4 assists), P. Reyna (4 assists), É. Flores (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Atletico won 3 times, Universitario won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:29 from Alianza Atletico's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1 / Universitario 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Alianza Atletico wins 3, draws 3, Universitario wins 9

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 20 8 4 53:23 30 68
W L W W W
2 32 17 9 6 57:37 20 60
D W W W D
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 32 16 6 10 50:35 15 54
W L W L L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 32 13 8 11 39:51 -12 47
D L L W D
11 32 12 9 11 37:35 2 45
D W W L L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
14 32 8 12 12 44:47 -3 36
D D W L D
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 32 7 8 17 25:46 -21 29
D L L W L
18 32 5 8 19 38:58 -20 18
L W L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2