06.08.2026 20:00
Estadio Campeones del 36
Referee: Joel Alarcon, Peru
Alianza Atletico
Match Timeline
Cienciano
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
20'
Cristian Penilla
Alianza Atletico
🟨
40'
Hernan Lupú
Alianza Atletico
🟨
45'
Jorge del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
45+3'
Henry Caparó
Cienciano
🟨
45'
Carlos Garcés
Cienciano
🔄
46'
A. Yovera ↔ A. Hohberg
Cienciano
🔄
46'
H. Caparo ↔ C. Souza Espana
Cienciano
🟨
53'
Santiago Arias
Cienciano
61'
J. Molina · Assist: H. Lupu
Alianza Atletico
🔄
64'
S. D. Arias Fierro ↔ G. Barreto
Cienciano
🔄
77'
J. del Castillo ↔ G. A. Larios Saavedra
Alianza Atletico
🔄
77'
H. Lupu ↔ S. Fernandez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
77'
R. Aguilar ↔ M. Martinich
Cienciano
🔄
78'
A. Robles ↔ D. La Torre
Cienciano
🔄
86'
J. Molina ↔ F. Flores
Alianza Atletico
🟨
87'
Stefano Fernández
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90+3'
C. Penilla ↔ J. Mendieta
Alianza Atletico

Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.8%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Atletico Win 50.6%
Draw 5.3%
Cienciano Win 44.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Atletico1.25
Cienciano1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
Cienciano Cienciano
WLDWL
38 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
13
4.8
Shots on Goal
5.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 21 matches
Cienciano Cienciano 21 matches
Alianza Atletico Statistic Cienciano
6 Wins 11
6 Draws 4
9 Losses 6
25 Goals For 38
29 Goals Against 28
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
12 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 4
4.8 Shots On Goal 5.75
13.15 Total Shots 15.65
3.1 Corners 5.3
45.6% Ball Possession 51.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cienciano carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 33 points while Alianza Atletico sit 8 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cienciano arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Atletico expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Cienciano in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cienciano having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cienciano.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Alianza Atletico have collected 21 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, while the 20:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Jorge del Castillo (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), Hernan Lupú (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cienciano Analysis

With 33 points from 17 games and a place of 3, Cienciano still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 34:22, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Alejandro Hohberg (5 goals), Carlos Garcés (2 goals), Matías Succar (2 goals), with creative support from Alejandro Hohberg (2 assists), Carlos Garcés (2 assists), Matías Succar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Atletico won 4 times, Cienciano won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:29 from Alianza Atletico's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Atletico 4-3-3 / Cienciano 4-4-2
H2H summary: Alianza Atletico wins 4, draws 2, Cienciano wins 9

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2