URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Luis Franzini

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.8%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Albion FC Win 52.4%
Draw 24.4%
Progreso Win 23.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Albion FC1.45
Progreso0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Albion FC Albion FC
WWDLW
35 GF / 30 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
18 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
0.72
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
15
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Albion FC Albion FC 25 matches
Progreso Progreso 25 matches
Albion FC Statistic Progreso
9 Wins 4
7 Draws 4
9 Losses 17
35 Goals For 18
30 Goals Against 38
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 0.72
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
15 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Albion FC's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Progreso. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Albion FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 34 points compared to Progreso in 16 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Albion FC Analysis

Albion FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 34 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 35:30 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 16 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 18:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Albion FC won 2 times, Progreso won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Albion FC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Albion FC - / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Albion FC wins 2, draws 1, Progreso wins 2
Last matches: Albion FC
21.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Boston River
2
3
L
15.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro
1
2
L
08.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
01.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
2
2
D
17.07.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
0
1
L
10.07.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
07.06.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Central Espanol
6
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
31.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
25.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Penarol
0
1
L
Last matches: Progreso
23.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
16.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
08.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
H2H: Albion FC vs Progreso
07.06.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
W
07.03.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
29.11.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
3
2
L
22.07.23
H2H
Albion FC
Progreso
3
0
W
22.04.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
0
L
Last matches: Albion FC
21.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Boston River
2
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
2
2
D
17.07.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
0
1
L
31.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
3
2
W
17.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Central Espanol
6
1
W
05.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
25.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Penarol
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Racing Montevideo
1
3
L
16.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro
3
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
26.10.25
Seg
Albion FC
Central Espanol
0
0
D
12.10.25
Seg
Albion FC
Rentistas
4
1
W
27.09.25
Seg
Albion FC
Cerrito
0
0
D
14.09.25
Seg
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
29.08.25
Seg
Albion FC
Uruguay Montevideo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Seg
Albion FC
Artigas
3
2
W
16.08.25
Seg
Albion FC
Rampla Juniors
2
1
W
H2H at home: Albion FC
22.07.23
H2H
Albion FC
Progreso
3
0
W
Last matches: Progreso
23.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
08.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
10.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Progreso
CA River Plate
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
1
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
3
L
H2H away: Progreso
22.07.23
H2H
Albion FC
Progreso
3
0
L

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 61 38 11 12 103:54 49 125
D W W W D
2 62 36 12 14 112:66 46 117
W L L W L
3 25 13 7 5 40:24 16 46
D W D D L
4 62 28 19 15 85:60 25 103
W W W D W
5 62 26 21 15 70:57 13 99
D W D W L
6 61 25 15 21 93:79 14 90
W W L W W
7 62 24 17 21 62:64 -2 89
D L L W L
8 62 25 13 24 72:74 -2 88
W L D D W
9 26 10 6 10 29:32 -3 36
L L L W D
10 25 9 7 9 35:30 5 34
L L L D L
11 62 22 18 22 74:72 2 84
W D W L L
12 62 20 20 22 67:68 -1 80
D D D L W
13 63 18 19 26 59:78 -19 73
W L D W W
14 62 19 15 28 50:81 -31 71
L W W L W
15 62 14 25 23 63:72 -9 67
D D L D L
16 62 14 13 35 56:98 -42 55
L L L L W
Relegation - Segunda Division