07.09.2026 18:00
Estadio Luis Franzini
Referee: J. Burgos
Albion FC
Match Timeline
Progreso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
2'
A. Ocampo
Progreso
VAR
4'
A. Lopez
Albion FC
21'
N. Lopez
Progreso
🟨
36'
E. Alvarez
Progreso
🟨
45+2'
F. Ginella
Albion FC
🔄
46'
R. Gutierrez ↔ F. Puente
Albion FC
🔄
46'
M. de los Santos ↔ B. Llana
Albion FC
🔄
59'
S. Costa ↔ A. Vera
Albion FC
🔄
59'
J. Alvarez ↔ B. Acosta
Albion FC
🔄
70'
F. Ginella ↔ N. Neira
Albion FC
🔄
75'
A. Ocampo ↔ N. Acosta
Progreso
🔄
84'
E. Alvarez ↔ G. Trasante
Progreso
🔄
84'
N. Lopez ↔ L. Couture
Progreso
🔄
84'
R. Cristobal ↔ A. Codagnone
Progreso
🔄
84'
L. Viana ↔ M. Juambeltz
Progreso
🟨
90'
B. Llana
Albion FC
🟨
90+4'
P. Lacoste
Albion FC
90+8'
A. Lopez · Assist: A. Lopez
Albion FC
🟨
90+10'
G. Trasante
Progreso

Albion FC vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.8%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Albion FC Win 52.4%
Draw 24.4%
Progreso Win 23.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Albion FC1.39
Progreso0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Albion FC Albion FC
WWDLW
35 GF / 31 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
19 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
0.73
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
15
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Albion FC Albion FC 26 matches
Progreso Progreso 26 matches
Albion FC Statistic Progreso
9 Wins 5
7 Draws 4
10 Losses 17
35 Goals For 19
31 Goals Against 38
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
15 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Albion FC's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Progreso. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Albion FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 34 points compared to Progreso in 16 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Albion FC Analysis

Albion FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 34 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 35:30 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 16 points from 25 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 18:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Albion FC won 2 times, Progreso won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Albion FC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Albion FC - / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Albion FC wins 2, draws 1, Progreso wins 2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 5 6 46:23 23 55
W W W L D
2 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
3 27 15 5 7 47:31 16 50
W W W W W
4 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 28 11 9 8 37:27 10 42
L W D W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
10 28 8 9 11 28:30 -2 33
D L D D D
11 28 8 8 12 32:38 -6 32
D D W W L
12 28 7 11 10 23:30 -7 32
W D L D L
13 29 9 5 15 23:43 -20 32
L W W D L
14 29 8 6 15 28:40 -12 30
L L L D W
15 28 4 13 11 23:37 -14 25
D L L D D
16 29 7 4 18 23:42 -19 25
W L W W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)