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SPAIN › LA LIGA
23.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Mendizorrotza

Alaves vs Malaga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alaves Win 88%
Draw 6%
Malaga Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alaves1.7
Malaga1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alaves Alaves
WWDLW
19 GF / 12 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
18 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
2.07
7
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
8
4.78
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alaves Alaves 13 matches
Malaga Malaga 14 matches
Alaves Statistic Malaga
5 Wins 1
4 Draws 7
4 Losses 6
19 Goals For 18
12 Goals Against 29
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 2.07
7 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 4
4.78 Shots On Goal 3
12.78 Total Shots 11.33
3.78 Corners 5.56
42.1% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alaves's more proactive style and Malaga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alaves expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Malaga in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Malaga having the stronger overall control. Alaves have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Alaves arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 11 points compared to Malaga in 20 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Malaga. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Alaves Analysis

With 11 points from 8 games and a place of 7, Alaves still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 12:8, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Boyé (5 goals), M. Díaz (3 goals), N. Tenaglia (1 goals), with creative support from M. Díaz (3 assists), Angel Pérez (3 assists), Sivera (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Malaga Analysis

Malaga approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 4 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 4:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Adrián Niño Heredia (2 goals), Chupe (1 goals), Carlos Dotor (1 goals), with creative support from Rafita (1 assists), Pablo Martínez (1 assists), Juan Cruz (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Alaves won 4 times, Malaga won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:4 from Alaves's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Alaves 3-5-2 / Malaga 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Alaves wins 4, draws 1, Malaga wins 1

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 9 7 1 1 19:8 11 22
W W W W W
3 9 7 0 2 23:9 14 21
W W L W W
4 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
5 9 5 1 3 17:17 0 16
W W W L W
6 9 4 2 3 14:16 -2 14
L D L W W
7 9 3 2 4 13:10 3 11
L L D L L
8 9 2 5 2 10:7 3 11
W D W D D
9 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
10 9 3 2 4 10:18 -8 11
W L D L L
11 7 2 3 2 7:6 1 9
D D D W
12 9 2 3 4 13:13 0 9
D L W W L
13 9 2 2 5 11:12 -1 8
L D L L W
14 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
15 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
16 9 2 2 5 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18 9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
D D W L D
19 9 1 3 5 6:15 -9 6
D D L W L
20 9 0 4 5 6:18 -12 4
L D L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2