SPAIN LA LIGA
13.05.2026 19:30
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Referee: J. Sanchez
Alaves
Match Timeline
Barcelona
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45'
I. Diabate · Assist: A. Blanco
Alaves
🟨
46'
Marcus Rashford
Barcelona
🔄
62'
R. Bardghji ↔ F. Torres
Barcelona
🔄
62'
M. Casado ↔ Pedri
Barcelona
🔄
62'
P. Cubarsi ↔ X. Espart
Barcelona
🔄
64'
I. Diabate ↔ A. Manas
Alaves
🔄
64'
D. Suarez ↔ P. Ibanez
Alaves
🔄
79'
A. Balde ↔ J. Cancelo
Barcelona
🔄
80'
V. Parada ↔ C. Protesoni
Alaves
🟨
81'
Abderrahman Rebbach
Alaves
🔄
87'
M. Bernal ↔ T. Marques
Barcelona
🟨
89'
João Cancelo
Barcelona

Alaves vs Barcelona Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alaves Win 18.8%
Draw 2.5%
Barcelona Win 78.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alaves1.27
Barcelona2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alaves Alaves
WWDLW
56 GF / 57 GA
Barcelona Barcelona
WLDWL
132 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
2.54
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
24
BTTS Yes
31
21
Over 2.5
39
4
Shots on Goal
7.02

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alaves Alaves 40 matches
Barcelona Barcelona 52 matches
Alaves Statistic Barcelona
13 Wins 41
10 Draws 3
17 Losses 8
56 Goals For 132
57 Goals Against 56
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 2.54
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
24 BTTS Yes 31
30 Over 1.5 49
21 Over 2.5 39
11 Over 3.5 20
7 Clean Sheets 18
10 Failed To Score 3
4 Shots On Goal 7.02
11.7 Total Shots 18.23
4.88 Corners 6.73
48.4% Ball Possession 67.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Barcelona's more proactive style and Alaves's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alaves expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Barcelona in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Barcelona having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Barcelona. Barcelona carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 91 points while Alaves sit 18 on 37, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Barcelona look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Alaves Analysis

Alaves sit 18 with 37 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 41:54, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through T. Martinez (12 goals), L. Boye (11 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), A. Perez (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without F. Garces, L. Boye, J. Guridi, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Barcelona Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 91 points from 35 games, Barcelona bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 30 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 91:31, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by F. Torres (16 goals), Lamine Yamal (16 goals), R. Lewandowski (13 goals), with creative support from Lamine Yamal (11 assists), F. Lopez (9 assists), M. Rashford (8 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 12 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without A. Christensen, Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alaves won 1 times, Barcelona won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:36 from Alaves's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (97.5%)
Predicted formations: Alaves 5-3-2 / Barcelona 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Alaves 2, Barcelona 4
H2H summary: Alaves wins 1, draws 2, Barcelona wins 12

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2