SPAIN LA LIGA
02.05.2026 16:30
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Referee: A. Quintero
Alaves
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Mikel Jauregizar
Athletic Club
8'
A. Blanco · Assist: A. Perez
Alaves
🟨
28'
Toni Martínez
Alaves
VAR
45+1'
Toni Martínez
Alaves
🔄
46'
I. Williams ↔ R. Navarro
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
M. Jauregizar ↔ I. Ruiz de Galarreta
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
U. Gomez ↔ O. Sancet
Athletic Club
46'
R. Navarro · Assist: N. Williams
Athletic Club
🟨
49'
Pablo Ibáñez
Alaves
🟨
59'
Antonio Blanco
Alaves
🟨
59'
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
🔄
62'
D. Suarez ↔ J. Guridi
Alaves
🔄
62'
P. Ibanez ↔ A. Guevara
Alaves
68'
N. Tenaglia · Assist: A. Rebbach
Alaves
🔄
73'
I. Diabate ↔ C. Alena
Alaves
🔄
73'
A. Gorosabel ↔ J. Areso
Athletic Club
74'
O. Sancet · Assist: Y. Berchiche
Athletic Club
🟨
76'
Nico Williams
Athletic Club
83'
N. Williams · Assist: G. Guruzeta
Athletic Club
87'
N. Williams · Assist: G. Guruzeta
Athletic Club
🔄
89'
N. Williams ↔ A. Boiro
Athletic Club
🟨
90+2'
Carles Aleñá
Alaves

Alaves vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 37.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
37.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alaves Win 70.1%
Draw 0%
Athletic Club Win 29.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alaves1.43
Athletic Club1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alaves Alaves
WWDLW
53 GF / 52 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
52 GF / 68 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
22
BTTS Yes
23
20
Over 2.5
22
4
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alaves Alaves 38 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 46 matches
Alaves Statistic Athletic Club
13 Wins 17
9 Draws 7
16 Losses 22
53 Goals For 52
52 Goals Against 68
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
22 BTTS Yes 23
28 Over 1.5 32
20 Over 2.5 22
10 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 17
4 Shots On Goal 4.24
11.82 Total Shots 13.5
4.95 Corners 5.46
48.7% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Athletic Club. Athletic Club arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alaves expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Athletic Club in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Alaves Analysis

With 36 points from 33 games and a place of 16, Alaves still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 38:49 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Boye (11 goals), T. Martinez (11 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), Victor Parada (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Athletic Club Analysis

With 41 points from 33 games and a place of 10, Athletic Club still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 5 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 36:48 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gorka Guruzeta (9 goals), R. Navarro (5 goals), N. Williams (4 goals), with creative support from I. Williams (4 assists), Yuri Berchiche (4 assists), Álex Berenguer (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alaves won 4 times, Athletic Club won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:17 from Alaves's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Alaves 5-3-2 / Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Alaves 3, Athletic Club 2
H2H summary: Alaves wins 4, draws 4, Athletic Club wins 7

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2