SAUDI-ARABIA › PRO LEAGUE
09.10.2026 18:00
King Saud University Stadium

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Al-Nassr Win 45.6%
Draw 12.4%
Al Diriyah Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al-Nassr1.41
Al Diriyah1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al-Nassr Al-Nassr
WWDLW
21 GF / 15 GA
Al Diriyah Al Diriyah
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
7
BTTS Yes
3
8
Over 2.5
3
6.29
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al-Nassr Al-Nassr 11 matches
Al Diriyah Al Diriyah 9 matches
Al-Nassr Statistic Al Diriyah
6 Wins 5
1 Draws 2
4 Losses 2
21 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 6
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
7 BTTS Yes 3
11 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
6.29 Shots On Goal 2.71
16.43 Total Shots 10.14
8.29 Corners 4.14
56.6% Ball Possession 40.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Al Diriyah. Al-Nassr arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 16 points compared to Al Diriyah in 8 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Al Diriyah having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Al-Nassr Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 16 points from 7 games, Al-Nassr bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 16:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Ângelo (2 goals), S. Mané (2 goals), Abdulelah Al Amri (2 goals), with creative support from Ângelo (2 assists), João Félix (2 assists), S. Mané (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Al Diriyah Analysis

Al Diriyah sit 8 with 11 points after 7 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:5 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Núñez (3 goals), A. Boulbina (2 goals), Abdulelah Al Malki (1 goals), with creative support from Óscar Rodríguez (3 assists), Abdulaziz Al Faraj (1 assists), C. Diandy (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Al-Nassr won 1 times, Al Diriyah won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:1 from Al-Nassr's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Al-Nassr 4-4-2 / Al Diriyah -
H2H summary: Al-Nassr wins 1, draws 0, Al Diriyah wins 0

Standings

Saudi Professional League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 23:5 18 18
W L W W W
2 7 5 2 0 12:6 6 17
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 16:7 9 16
D W L W W
4 7 5 1 1 16:8 8 16
D W W W W
5 7 5 0 2 13:6 7 15
W W W L L
6 7 4 0 3 16:10 6 12
W L W L L
7 7 3 3 1 12:10 2 12
L W D W D
8 7 3 2 2 7:5 2 11
D W L W D
9 7 3 2 2 11:11 0 11
D D W L L
10 7 2 2 3 7:9 -2 8
L W D D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:16 -8 8
W D L W D
12 7 1 3 3 7:11 -4 6
D L D W D
13 7 0 5 2 3:10 -7 5
D D L L D
14 7 0 4 3 6:11 -5 4
D L L D D
15 7 0 3 4 4:11 -7 3
L L D D D
16 7 0 3 4 5:13 -8 3
L D D L D
17 7 0 3 4 3:12 -9 3
L L D L D
18 7 0 2 5 5:13 -8 2
D L L L D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
Relegation - Division 1