SAUDI-ARABIA PRO LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium
Referee: S. Al Jurays
Al Najma
Match Timeline
Al Shabab
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
20'
Rakan Al-Tulayhi
Al Najma
🟨
21'
Rakan Al-Tulayhi
Al Najma
🟨
23'
Wesley Hoedt
Al Shabab
🟨
30'
Abdulaziz Al Harabi
Al Najma
VAR
41'
Rakan Al-Tulayhi
Al Najma
🟨
45+4'
Mohammed Al Fatil
Al Najma
45'
Lazaro
Al Najma
🔄
46'
A. Azaizeh ↔ A. Matuq
Al Shabab
🟨
49'
Nawaf Al-Hawsawi
Al Najma
🟨
52'
Haroune Camara
Al Shabab
🔄
59'
A. Makki ↔ M. Al Rajeh
Al Shabab
🔄
71'
B. Al Sayyali ↔ U. Hernandez
Al Shabab
🔄
77'
R. Al Tulayhi ↔ B. Boutobba
Al Najma
🔄
83'
A. Al Bulayhi ↔ K. A. Al Sibyani H.
Al Shabab
🔄
84'
N. Al Hawsawi ↔ Vitao
Al Najma
🟨
88'
Nasser Al Haleel
Al Najma
🟨
90+6'
Lázaro
Al Najma
🔄
90+6'
Lazaro ↔ M. Mile
Al Najma

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.8%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Al Najma Win 19.6%
Draw 23.4%
Al Shabab Win 57%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al Najma1.24
Al Shabab1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al Najma Al Najma
WWDLW
31 GF / 76 GA
Al Shabab Al Shabab
WLDWL
44 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.33
2.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
22
BTTS Yes
21
23
Over 2.5
15
3.03
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al Najma Al Najma 33 matches
Al Shabab Al Shabab 33 matches
Al Najma Statistic Al Shabab
2 Wins 8
7 Draws 11
24 Losses 14
31 Goals For 44
76 Goals Against 56
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
2.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
22 BTTS Yes 21
26 Over 1.5 26
23 Over 2.5 15
15 Over 3.5 13
3 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 8
3.03 Shots On Goal 4.82
9.12 Total Shots 12.97
3.58 Corners 5.27
45.3% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Al Najma expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Al Shabab in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Al Shabab having the stronger overall control. Al Shabab carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 13 with 35 points while Al Najma sit 18 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Al Shabab.

Al Najma Analysis

Al Najma approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 13 points from 33 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 24 losses, together with goals at 31:76, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lazaro (6 goals), Felippe Cardoso (4 goals), R. Al Tulayhi (4 goals), with creative support from Felippe Cardoso (4 assists), R. Al Tulayhi (4 assists), D. Tijanic (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Al Shabab Analysis

Al Shabab approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 35 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 14 defeats with a 44:56 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Y. Carrasco (18 goals), A. Hamdallah (6 goals), J. Brownhill (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Carrasco (7 assists), Yacine Adli (3 assists), A. Hamdallah (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Al Najma won 1 times, Al Shabab won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Al Najma's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (80.4%)
Predicted formations: Al Najma 3-4-2-1 / Al Shabab 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Al Najma wins 1, draws 1, Al Shabab wins 0

Standings

Saudi League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 2 4 91:28 63 86
W D W L W
2 34 25 9 0 85:27 58 84
W W D W W
3 34 25 6 3 71:25 46 81
W W W W W
4 34 23 8 3 83:34 49 77
W W W W W
5 34 16 7 11 55:48 7 55
L L W W D
6 34 15 8 11 59:46 13 53
L D L W L
7 34 14 8 12 51:55 -4 50
D L W D W
8 34 12 9 13 43:48 -5 45
D L W D D
9 34 11 9 14 38:57 -19 42
W L D L D
10 34 10 8 16 41:54 -13 38
L L L W D
11 34 9 10 15 41:55 -14 37
D W L L D
12 34 10 7 17 54:62 -8 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 44:57 -13 35
L W L L L
14 34 9 6 19 39:61 -22 33
D L D D D
15 34 7 9 18 35:63 -28 30
W D W L L
16 34 6 11 17 32:55 -23 29
L W L L L
17 34 5 5 24 27:70 -43 20
L W D L L
18 34 3 7 24 32:76 -44 16
W L D D L
Champions League Elite
Champions League 2
Relegation