SAUDI-ARABIA PRO LEAGUE
14.05.2026 15:55
Al Fateh club stadium
Referee: M. Abu Shaqarah
Al-Fateh
Match Timeline
Al Najma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Marwane Saadane
Al-Fateh
🟨
18'
Felippe Cardoso
Al Najma
21'
M. Vargas
Al-Fateh
🔄
36'
K. Al Subaie ↔ N. Al Hawsawi
Al Najma
55'
F. Al Zubaidi · Assist: A. Al Anazi
Al-Fateh
🔄
62'
N. Dunga ↔ H. Al Dubais
Al Najma
🔄
62'
A. Jasim ↔ D. Tijanic
Al Najma
🔄
63'
F. Pacheco ↔ A. Al Bukhari
Al-Fateh
🟨
66'
Nawaf Al-Hawsawi
Al Najma
🟥
69'
Gonçalo Rodrigues
Al Najma
VAR
69'
Gonçalo Rodrigues
Al Najma
🔄
73'
Z. Youssouf ↔ N. Masoud
Al-Fateh
🔄
73'
F. Al Zubaidi ↔ S. Al Sharfa
Al-Fateh
🔄
73'
M. Vargas ↔ Ramos Jefferson
Al-Fateh
🔄
85'
A. Al Anazi ↔ M. Refaat
Al-Fateh
🔄
86'
S. Al Essa ↔ M. Sharrahi
Al Najma
🟨
90+3'
Ziyad Aljari
Al-Fateh

Al-Fateh vs Al Najma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Al-Fateh Win 100%
Draw 0%
Al Najma Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al-Fateh1.66
Al Najma1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al-Fateh Al-Fateh
WWDLW
39 GF / 55 GA
Al Najma Al Najma
WLDWL
31 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
2.31
21
BTTS Yes
22
15
Over 2.5
23
4.78
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al-Fateh Al-Fateh 32 matches
Al Najma Al Najma 32 matches
Al-Fateh Statistic Al Najma
8 Wins 2
9 Draws 7
15 Losses 23
39 Goals For 31
55 Goals Against 74
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 2.31
21 BTTS Yes 22
24 Over 1.5 25
15 Over 2.5 23
10 Over 3.5 15
5 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 10
4.78 Shots On Goal 3
12.47 Total Shots 9
5.13 Corners 3.53
46.2% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Al-Fateh expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Al Najma in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Al Najma having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Al-Fateh arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 12 with 33 points compared to Al Najma in 18 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Al Najma.

Al-Fateh Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Al-Fateh have collected 33 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 39:55 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Batna (9 goals), S. Bendebka (9 goals), Matías Vargas (7 goals), with creative support from M. Batna (8 assists), Matías Vargas (4 assists), F. Al Zubaidi (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Al Najma Analysis

With 13 points from 32 games and a place of 18, Al Najma still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 23 defeats with a 31:74 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lazaro (6 goals), Felippe Cardoso (4 goals), R. Al Tulayhi (4 goals), with creative support from Felippe Cardoso (4 assists), R. Al Tulayhi (4 assists), D. Tijanic (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Al-Fateh won 1 times, Al Najma won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Al-Fateh's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Al-Fateh 3-5-2 / Al Najma 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Al-Fateh wins 1, draws 1, Al Najma wins 0

Standings

Saudi League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 2 4 91:28 63 86
W D W L W
2 34 25 9 0 85:27 58 84
W W D W W
3 34 25 6 3 71:25 46 81
W W W W W
4 34 23 8 3 83:34 49 77
W W W W W
5 34 16 7 11 55:48 7 55
L L W W D
6 34 15 8 11 59:46 13 53
L D L W L
7 34 14 8 12 51:55 -4 50
D L W D W
8 34 12 9 13 43:48 -5 45
D L W D D
9 34 11 9 14 38:57 -19 42
W L D L D
10 34 10 8 16 41:54 -13 38
L L L W D
11 34 9 10 15 41:55 -14 37
D W L L D
12 34 10 7 17 54:62 -8 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 44:57 -13 35
L W L L L
14 34 9 6 19 39:61 -22 33
D L D D D
15 34 7 9 18 35:63 -28 30
W D W L L
16 34 6 11 17 32:55 -23 29
L W L L L
17 34 5 5 24 27:70 -43 20
L W D L L
18 34 3 7 24 32:76 -44 16
W L D D L
Champions League Elite
Champions League 2
Relegation