RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Akhmat-Arena
Referee: E. Kukulyak
Akhmat
Match Timeline
Baltika
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
Ilya Petrov
Baltika
🟨
40'
Nathan Gassama
Baltika
🔄
46'
I. Petrov ↔ I. Belikov
Baltika
51'
Derik Lacerda · Assist: I. Belikov
Baltika
🔄
57'
D. Khlusevich ↔ S. Pryakhin
Akhmat
60'
K. Andrade
Akhmat
🟨
63'
Ousmane N’Dong
Akhmat
🟨
65'
Ivan Belikov
Baltika
🔄
71'
A. Mendel ↔ M. Ryadno
Baltika
🔄
81'
Derik Lacerda ↔ T. Yenne
Baltika
🔄
82'
M. Petrov ↔ I. Manelov
Baltika
🔄
85'
G. Melkadze ↔ M. Konate
Akhmat
🔄
85'
I. Silva ↔ R. Zhemaletdinov
Akhmat
🔄
87'
N. Titkov ↔ A. Mourid
Baltika
🟨
90+2'
Miroslav Bogosavac
Akhmat

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75%
-
Probability Distribution
Akhmat Win 53.1%
Draw 3.7%
Baltika Win 43.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Akhmat0.96
Baltika1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Akhmat Akhmat
WWDLW
30 GF / 34 GA
Baltika Baltika
WLDWL
36 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.6
14
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
7
3.64
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Akhmat Akhmat 25 matches
Baltika Baltika 25 matches
Akhmat Statistic Baltika
8 Wins 11
7 Draws 12
10 Losses 2
30 Goals For 36
34 Goals Against 15
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.6
14 BTTS Yes 9
18 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 6
3.64 Shots On Goal 4.2
12.08 Total Shots 12.52
4.24 Corners 3.36
45.2% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Baltika's more proactive style and Akhmat's more cautious structure. Baltika seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Akhmat expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Baltika in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Baltika having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Baltika carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 45 points while Akhmat sit 9 on 31, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Baltika. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Akhmat Analysis

Akhmat are currently 9 in the standings with 31 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 29:31 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Cacintura (7 goals), G. Melkadze (7 goals), M. Samorodov (5 goals), with creative support from M. Samorodov (4 assists), E. Cacintura (3 assists), M. Konate (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. Sidorov unavailable.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 45 points after 25 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 12 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 34:13 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Gil (13 goals), Maksim Petrov (7 goals), C. Offor (3 goals), with creative support from Ilya Petrov (4 assists), Nathan Gassama (3 assists), Maksim Petrov (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without T. Yenne, E. Civic, C. Offor, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Akhmat won 0 times, Baltika won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:19 from Akhmat's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Akhmat 4-2-3-1 / Baltika 5-4-1
Missing players: Akhmat 1, Baltika 4
H2H summary: Akhmat wins 0, draws 2, Baltika wins 5
Stats
Akhmat Akhmat
Baltika Baltika
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 4
12 Fouls 22
2 Offsides 0
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Goal 5
1 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 4
4 Shots insidebox 10
3 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
408 Total passes 318
298 Passes accurate 197
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Akhmat
Formation
Baltika
V. Ulyanov
V. Ulyanov
T. Ibishev
T. Ibishev
O. Ndong
O. Ndong
K. Cake
K. Cake
D. Khlusevich
D. Khlusevich
E. Cacintura
E. Cacintura
I. Silva
I. Silva
M. Bogosavac
M. Bogosavac
M. Samorodov
M. Samorodov
L. Sadulaev
L. Sadulaev
G. Melkadze
G. Melkadze
I. Kukushkin
I. Kukushkin
M. Beveev
M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov
K. Andrade
K. Andrade
A. Filin
A. Filin
N. Gassama
N. Gassama
N. Titkov
N. Titkov
A. Mendel
A. Mendel
I. Petrov
I. Petrov
M. Petrov
M. Petrov
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
Akhmat 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
V. Ulyanov
G
4
T. Ibishev
D
90
O. Ndong
🟨 63'
D
5
K. Cake
D
82
D. Khlusevich
↓ 57'
M
17
E. Cacintura
M
11
I. Silva
↓ 85'
M
8
M. Bogosavac
🟨 90+2'
M
20
M. Samorodov
F
7
L. Sadulaev
F
77
G. Melkadze
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
88
G. Shelia
G
72
Y. Magomedov
G
9
B. Mansilla
F
13
M. Konate
↑ 85'
F
23
G. Kenzhebek
M
19
S. Pryakhin
↑ 57'
M
37
P. Gadio
M
22
M. Zare
D
40
R. Utsiev
D
10
R. Zhemaletdinov
↑ 85'
M
27
A. Davlitgereev
M
2
D. Abdulkadyrov
D
Baltika 5-4-1
Starting XI
81
I. Kukushkin
G
23
M. Beveev
D
2
S. Varatynov
D
16
K. Andrade
⚽ 60'
D
25
A. Filin
D
4
N. Gassama
🟨 40'
D
22
N. Titkov
↓ 87'
M
8
A. Mendel
↓ 71'
M
10
I. Petrov
↓ 46' 🟨 32'
M
73
M. Petrov
↓ 82'
M
18
Derik Lacerda
⚽ 51' ↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
44
E. Lyubakov
G
36
A. Tsitsilin
G
14
S. Kovac
M
5
A. Mourid
↑ 87'
M
15
T. Yenne
↑ 81'
F
42
V. Pospelov
M
11
Y. Kovalev
M
91
B. Gil
F
69
I. Manelov
↑ 82'
F
21
E. Anderson
D
68
M. Ryadno
↑ 71'
D
26
I. Belikov
🎯 51' ↑ 46' 🟨 65'
D
Last matches: Akhmat
16.07.26
Fri
Akhmat
Ajman
1
0
W
14.07.26
Fri
Akhmat
Radnik Bijeljina
3
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Akhmat
IMT Novi Beograd
1
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Akhmat
Novi Pazar
1
1
D
29.06.26
Fri
Akhmat
Borac Banja Luka
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Akhmat
OFK Beograd
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Akhmat
FC Sochi
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pre
Akhmat
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pre
Akhmat
Nizhny Novgorod
2
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
Akhmat
Zenit
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pre
Akhmat
Spartak Moscow
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Akhmat
FC Krasnodar
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pre
Akhmat
FC Rostov
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
Akhmat
Akron
1
1
D
09.03.26
Pre
Akhmat
Lokomotiv
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Akhmat
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Akhmat
Baltika
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Akhmat
Olmaliq
3
2
W
11.02.26
Fri
Akhmat
Bars
2
0
W
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
H2H: Akhmat vs Baltika
23.04.26
H2H
Akhmat
Baltika
1
1
D
18.02.26
H2H
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
02.11.25
H2H
Baltika
Akhmat
2
0
L
13.04.24
H2H
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika
1
7
W
31.10.23
H2H
Baltika
Akhmat Grozny
4
1
L
23.09.23
H2H
Baltika
Akhmat Grozny
1
0
L
10.08.23
H2H
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika
0
2
W
Last matches: Akhmat
16.07.26
Fri
Akhmat
Ajman
1
0
W
29.06.26
Fri
Akhmat
Borac Banja Luka
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Akhmat
OFK Beograd
3
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Akhmat
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pre
Akhmat
Nizhny Novgorod
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Akhmat
FC Krasnodar
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pre
Akhmat
FC Rostov
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Akhmat
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Akhmat
Olmaliq
3
2
W
11.02.26
Fri
Akhmat
Bars
2
0
W
02.02.26
Fri
Akhmat
FK Vozdovac
3
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Akhmat
FC UFA
1
2
L
29.01.26
Fri
Akhmat
Vardar Skopje
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
Akhmat
OFK Beograd
3
0
W
05.12.25
Pre
Akhmat
FC Orenburg
1
0
W
30.11.25
Pre
Akhmat
Dynamo
2
1
W
09.11.25
Pre
Akhmat
Spartak Moscow
1
2
L
27.10.25
Pre
Akhmat
FC Sochi
2
4
L
27.09.25
Pre
Akhmat
Akron
3
0
W
13.09.25
Pre
Akhmat
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
H2H at home: Akhmat
23.04.26
H2H
Akhmat
Baltika
1
1
D
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Chelyabinsk
2
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Orenburg
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
19.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
3
0
W
28.09.25
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
0
1
L
31.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Akron
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
2
0
W
09.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
1
D
26.07.25
Pre
Baltika
Spartak Moscow
3
0
W
H2H away: Baltika
23.04.26
H2H
Akhmat
Baltika
1
1
D
13.04.24
H2H
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika
1
7
W
10.08.23
H2H
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika
0
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Akhmat 1 missing
-
M. Sidorov
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Baltika 4 missing
-
T. Yenne
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
E. Civic
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
B. Gil
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
C. Offor
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT