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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
10.10.2026 19:00
Johan Cruijff Arena
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
Ajax
Match Timeline
NEC Nijmegen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
T. Arokodare · Assist: J. Mokio
Ajax
🟨
17'
Jorthy Mokio
Ajax
⚽
19'
T. Chery
NEC Nijmegen
🟨
33'
Bryan Linssen
NEC Nijmegen
🟨
54'
Gabriel Brás
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
60'
O. Gloukh ↔ A. Ouazane
Ajax
🔄
60'
V. Tsygankov ↔ S. Adingra
Ajax
🟨
67'
Abdellah Ouazane
Ajax
🔄
73'
L. Rosa ↔ A. Bouwman
Ajax
🔄
73'
T. Arokodare ↔ Marcos Leonardo
Ajax
🔄
73'
B. Linssen ↔ M. Bakker
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
73'
P. Schuurs ↔ A. Kaplan
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
80'
O. Wijndal ↔ D. Klaassen
Ajax
🔄
82'
K. Kers ↔ J. Monteiro
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
82'
T. Chery ↔ W. T. Willumsson
NEC Nijmegen

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds 1.35
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
1.35 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.26 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.83 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Ajax Win 58.4%
Draw 15.1%
NEC Nijmegen Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ajax2.34
NEC Nijmegen1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ajax Ajax
WWDLW
58 GF / 28 GA
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen
WLDWL
31 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
2.64
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.89
16
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
15
9.08
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ajax Ajax 22 matches
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 19 matches
Ajax Statistic NEC Nijmegen
14 Wins 5
5 Draws 4
3 Losses 10
58 Goals For 31
28 Goals Against 36
2.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.89
16 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 17
17 Over 2.5 15
16 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 5
9.08 Shots On Goal 4.25
24.46 Total Shots 14.33
8.54 Corners 4.17
65.2% Ball Possession 55.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ajax's more proactive style and NEC Nijmegen's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward NEC Nijmegen. Ajax arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 14 points compared to NEC Nijmegen in 11 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and NEC Nijmegen in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward NEC Nijmegen having the stronger overall control.

Ajax Analysis

Ajax approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 14 points after 7 outings. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:9, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Brandt (4 goals), T. Arokodare (3 goals), D. Klaassen (3 goals), with creative support from O. Gloukh (4 assists), K. Dolberg (3 assists), S. Berghuis (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

NEC Nijmegen Analysis

NEC Nijmegen are currently 11 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:13 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Chery (3 goals), P. Schuurs (2 goals), Adam Tahaui (2 goals), with creative support from T. Chery (2 assists), D. Tadić (2 assists), P. Schuurs (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 8 times, NEC Nijmegen won 1 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:16 from Ajax's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)
Predicted formations: Ajax 4-3-3 / NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Ajax 5, NEC Nijmegen 6
H2H summary: Ajax wins 8, draws 6, NEC Nijmegen wins 1

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 2 0 27:7 20 20
W W W W D
2 8 6 1 1 26:10 16 19
W L W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
L W D W W
4 8 5 2 1 16:8 8 17
D W W W D
5
Ajax Home
8 4 3 1 22:10 12 15
D D W W L
6 8 4 2 2 20:14 6 14
W W D D L
7 8 4 2 2 14:15 -1 14
D W L W W
8 8 2 5 1 19:17 2 11
D D D D L
9 8 3 2 3 16:14 2 11
L D L D W
10 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L W D L D
11 8 2 3 3 13:14 -1 9
D D L D L
12 8 2 2 4 11:19 -8 8
W D W D L
13 8 2 2 4 14:25 -11 8
W L W D L
14 8 1 3 4 13:20 -7 6
D L L D L
15 8 1 3 4 7:14 -7 6
D L D L D
16 8 1 1 6 6:21 -15 4
L L L D L
17 8 0 3 5 9:19 -10 3
D D L L D
18 8 0 2 6 7:23 -16 2
L L L D L
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