Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
58.4%
|
1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
1.44 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
87%
|
1.26 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.23 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
1.83 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
10.00 |
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Ajax
22 matches
NEC Nijmegen
19 matches
| Ajax | Statistic | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wins | 5 |
| 5 | Draws | 4 |
| 3 | Losses | 10 |
| 58 | Goals For | 31 |
| 28 | Goals Against | 36 |
| 2.64 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.63 |
| 1.27 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.89 |
| 16 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 19 | Over 1.5 | 17 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 16 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 9.08 | Shots On Goal | 4.25 |
| 24.46 | Total Shots | 14.33 |
| 8.54 | Corners | 4.17 |
| 65.2% | Ball Possession | 55.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ajax's more proactive style and NEC Nijmegen's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward NEC Nijmegen. Ajax arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 14 points compared to NEC Nijmegen in 11 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and NEC Nijmegen in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward NEC Nijmegen having the stronger overall control.
Ajax approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 14 points after 7 outings. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:9, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Brandt (4 goals), T. Arokodare (3 goals), D. Klaassen (3 goals), with creative support from O. Gloukh (4 assists), K. Dolberg (3 assists), S. Berghuis (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
NEC Nijmegen are currently 11 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 12:13 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Chery (3 goals), P. Schuurs (2 goals), Adam Tahaui (2 goals), with creative support from T. Chery (2 assists), D. Tadić (2 assists), P. Schuurs (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 8 times, NEC Nijmegen won 1 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:16 from Ajax's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27:7 | 20 | 20 |
W
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26:10 | 16 | 19 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 10 | 19 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 17 |
D
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 |
Ajax
Home
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 | 15 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
| 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20:14 | 6 | 14 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14:15 | -1 | 14 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 19:17 | 2 | 11 |
D
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 11 |
L
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 9 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 11 |
NEC Nijmegen
Away
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | -1 | 9 |
D
D
L
D
L
|
| 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:19 | -8 | 8 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14:25 | -11 | 8 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13:20 | -7 | 6 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:14 | -7 | 6 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6:21 | -15 | 4 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 3 |
D
D
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7:23 | -16 | 2 |
L
L
L
D
L
|