BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Água Santa
Match Timeline
Velo Clube
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
Vitinho
Velo Clube
83'
Gabriel Rossetto
Água Santa
120+4'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube
120+3'
Água Santa
Água Santa
120+3'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube
120+2'
Água Santa
Água Santa
120+2'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube
120+1'
Água Santa
Água Santa
120+1'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Água Santa Win 82.5%
Draw 5.6%
Velo Clube Win 11.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Água Santa1.23
Velo Clube0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Água Santa Água Santa
WWDLW
16 GF / 8 GA
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WLDWL
10 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.91
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
3
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Água Santa Água Santa 11 matches
Velo Clube Velo Clube 11 matches
Água Santa Statistic Velo Clube
5 Wins 3
3 Draws 5
3 Losses 3
16 Goals For 10
8 Goals Against 10
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
3 BTTS Yes 5
6 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 1
6 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Água Santa's more proactive style and Velo Clube's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Velo Clube. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Velo Clube having the stronger overall control.

Água Santa Analysis

Água Santa come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 17 points from 10 matches. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 16:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Levi (6 goals), Gustavinho (3 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Velo Clube Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Velo Clube arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 13 points after 10 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 10:10 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Lucas Duni (3 goals), Matheus Firmino (3 goals), Felipe Pacajus (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Água Santa won 1 times, Velo Clube won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Água Santa's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
H2H summary: Água Santa wins 1, draws 2, Velo Clube wins 1
Last matches: Água Santa
20.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
0
0
D
06.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
1
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
0
1
L
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
2
3
L
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H: Água Santa vs Velo Clube
27.06.26
H2H
Água Santa
Velo Clube
1
1
D
20.06.26
H2H
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
23.02.25
H2H
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
0
L
27.02.21
H2H
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
2
W
Last matches: Água Santa
30.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
17.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
04.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
2
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
3
L
H2H at home: Água Santa
27.06.26
H2H
Água Santa
Velo Clube
1
1
D
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
H2H away: Velo Clube
27.06.26
H2H
Água Santa
Velo Clube
1
1
D

Standings

Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)