BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Água Santa
Match Timeline
Pouso Alegre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Daniel Bahia
Água Santa
73'
Levi
Água Santa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Água Santa Win 100%
Draw 0%
Pouso Alegre Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Água Santa1.37
Pouso Alegre0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Água Santa Água Santa
WWDLW
10 GF / 6 GA
Pouso Alegre Pouso Alegre
WLDWL
5 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
0.71
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
2
BTTS Yes
0
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Água Santa Água Santa 7 matches
Pouso Alegre Pouso Alegre 7 matches
Água Santa Statistic Pouso Alegre
3 Wins 2
2 Draws 1
2 Losses 4
10 Goals For 5
6 Goals Against 9
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
2 BTTS Yes 0
4 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 2
3 Over 3.5 0
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Água Santa's more proactive style and Pouso Alegre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Pouso Alegre. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Pouso Alegre having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Água Santa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 11 points compared to Pouso Alegre in 6 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Pouso Alegre arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Água Santa Analysis

Água Santa come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 11 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Levi (3 goals), Gustavinho (2 goals), Cesinha Belli (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Pouso Alegre Analysis

Pouso Alegre sit 6 with 7 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 5:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Michael Paulista (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Água Santa won 4 times, Pouso Alegre won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:3 from Água Santa's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
H2H summary: Água Santa wins 4, draws 1, Pouso Alegre wins 1
Last matches: Água Santa
27.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
0
0
D
06.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
1
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
0
1
L
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
2
3
L
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
Last matches: Pouso Alegre
06.06.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Madureira
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa RJ
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
América RJ
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
América RJ
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa RJ
0
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Madureira
2
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Porto Vitória
0
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Boavista SC
2
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
2
0
W
04.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
31.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
1
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
10.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
H2H: Água Santa vs Pouso Alegre
23.05.26
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
W
26.07.25
H2H
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
W
19.04.25
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
3
L
17.06.24
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
1
0
W
02.06.24
H2H
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
0
D
Last matches: Água Santa
27.06.26
Ser
Água Santa
Velo Clube
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
17.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
04.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
2
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
3
L
H2H at home: Água Santa
23.05.26
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
19.04.25
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
3
L
17.06.24
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
1
0
W
Last matches: Pouso Alegre
06.06.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Madureira
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
América RJ
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa RJ
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Porto Vitória
0
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
04.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
24.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
1
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
03.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Boavista SC
0
1
L
19.04.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
3
2
W
H2H away: Pouso Alegre
23.05.26
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
L
19.04.25
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
3
W
17.06.24
H2H
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
1
0
L