BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Água Santa
Match Timeline
Madureira
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
Levi
Água Santa
49'
Diogo Marzagao
Água Santa
56'
M. Fashanu
Madureira
67'
Levi
Água Santa
79'
Gustavinho
Água Santa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 98.3%
Odds 1.63
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds 1.54
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds 1.50
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
98.3%
1.63
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
1.54
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
1.50
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.48
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Água Santa Win 98.3%
Draw 0%
Madureira Win 1.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Água Santa1.5
Madureira0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Água Santa Água Santa
WWDLW
12 GF / 6 GA
Madureira Madureira
WLDWL
9 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.13
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
2
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Água Santa Água Santa 8 matches
Madureira Madureira 8 matches
Água Santa Statistic Madureira
4 Wins 2
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
12 Goals For 9
6 Goals Against 12
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
2 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Água Santa's more proactive style and Madureira's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Madureira. Água Santa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 11 points compared to Madureira in 5 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Madureira arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Madureira having the stronger overall control.

Água Santa Analysis

Água Santa come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 11 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:6 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Levi (3 goals), Gustavinho (2 goals), Cesinha Belli (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Madureira Analysis

With 7 points from 7 games and a place of 5, Madureira still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 8:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Joao Carlos (2 goals), Wallace Camilo (2 goals), Adriano (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Água Santa won 1 times, Madureira won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from Água Santa's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Água Santa wins 1, draws 0, Madureira wins 1
Last matches: Água Santa
23.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Madureira
1
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
0
1
L
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
2
3
L
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
2
D
17.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
Last matches: Madureira
23.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Madureira
América RJ
1
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Madureira
América RJ
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Água Santa
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Pouso Alegre
0
2
L
H2H: Água Santa vs Madureira
30.05.26
H2H
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
11.04.26
H2H
Madureira
Água Santa
3
1
L
Last matches: Água Santa
23.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa RJ
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Água Santa
América RJ
4
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Água Santa
Ceilândia
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Nova Iguaçu
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Água Santa
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
14.06.25
Ser
Água Santa
Boavista SC
2
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
17.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
04.05.25
Ser
Água Santa
Portuguesa
2
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Água Santa
Pouso Alegre
2
3
L
H2H at home: Água Santa
30.05.26
H2H
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
W
Last matches: Madureira
16.05.26
Ser
Madureira
América RJ
1
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Pouso Alegre
0
2
L
H2H away: Madureira
30.05.26
H2H
Água Santa
Madureira
4
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.56
Draw 3.24
Home 1.63
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.76
Draw 1.91
Home 2.28
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.66
Draw 2.27
Home 2.03
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 0.75 1.08
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.43
Over 1.75 1.55
Over 2.0 1.76
Over 2.25 2.08
Over 2.5 2.38
Over 2.75 2.74
Over 3.0 3.58
Over 3.25 4.00
Over 3.5 4.35
Over 3.75 5.50
Over 4.0 7.90
Over 4.25 7.65
Over 4.5 8.50
Over 5.5 29.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.20
Under 0.75 5.65
Under 1.0 5.05
Under 1.25 3.14
Under 1.5 2.46
Under 1.75 2.17
Under 2.0 1.86
Under 2.25 1.65
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 2.75 1.35
Under 3.0 1.21
Under 3.25 1.17
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 3.75 1.08
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 3.20
Home 1.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.10
Home 2.35
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.30
Draw 2.38
Home 2.18
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 3.5 3.85
Under 1.5 2.85
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 3.5 1.19

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 14:6 8 20
W D W W D
1 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
L W W W D
1 9 5 3 1 18:7 11 18
D D W W W
1 9 5 3 1 12:7 5 18
D D D W W
1 9 5 1 3 13:9 4 16
W W L L W
1 9 5 3 1 14:6 8 18
W W D L W
1 9 4 5 0 14:8 6 17
D D W W D
1 9 5 1 3 14:9 5 16
W W W L W
1 9 6 1 2 14:7 7 19
W W L D L
1 9 5 4 0 12:5 7 19
W D W D W
1 9 6 3 0 17:7 10 21
W W D W D
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
W W W W W
1 9 6 2 1 14:6 8 20
W D W W D
1 9 5 3 1 20:9 11 18
W W L W W
1 9 4 5 0 13:7 6 17
D D D W D
1 9 5 3 1 14:7 7 18
D W W D W
2 9 3 5 1 11:7 4 14
D W L D W
2 9 4 3 2 10:6 4 15
D D W W L
2 9 3 3 3 10:8 2 12
?
2 9 4 4 1 13:6 7 16
W D W D D
2 9 5 2 2 16:7 9 17
W W D D W
2 9 3 3 3 11:7 4 12
D L W W W
2 9 4 3 2 9:3 6 15
D W L W D
2 8 4 3 1 9:4 5 15
D W W W L
2 9 5 2 2 12:8 4 17
D W L W D
2 9 4 3 2 22:9 13 15
L D L W W
2 9 3 3 3 11:10 1 12
D L D W D
2 9 4 4 1 12:7 5 16
D D L D W
2 9 5 2 2 17:13 4 17
L W W L W
2 9 4 4 1 10:6 4 16
W W D D D
2 9 3 5 1 12:8 4 14
D W D L D
2 9 5 3 1 12:3 9 18
W D W D D
3 9 4 2 3 14:12 2 14
L L D W W
3 9 4 2 3 11:9 2 14
D D L L L
3 9 3 3 3 6:6 0 12
L D W D W
3 9 4 2 3 12:8 4 14
D W D W L
3 9 3 5 1 14:7 7 14
D D W D L
3 9 3 3 3 8:9 -1 12
W D L L D
3 9 4 3 2 9:5 4 15
W D L L D
3 9 3 3 3 3:4 -1 12
L D L D W
3 9 3 4 2 10:6 4 13
W D L L D
3 9 4 3 2 20:9 11 15
W D D W D
3 9 3 3 3 9:11 -2 12
D L W W W
3 9 2 5 2 9:8 1 11
D D W L D
3 9 3 4 2 14:13 1 13
W D W L D
3 9 3 4 2 12:5 7 13
W W W D L
3 9 4 2 3 12:10 2 14
W L W D L
3 8 2 4 2 6:4 2 10
D D D D L
4 9 2 4 3 6:6 0 10
L D D L D
4 9 2 4 3 13:15 -2 10
W D D D L
4 9 3 3 3 11:13 -2 12
D D W W L
4 9 3 3 3 8:11 -3 12
D L L D D
4 9 2 4 3 10:12 -2 10
L L D D D
4 9 2 3 4 10:21 -11 9
D L W L D
4 9 3 2 4 8:11 -3 11
W D L L L
4 9 4 1 4 8:8 0 13
L D W L W
4 9 2 4 3 5:8 -3 10
W D D W D
4 9 2 4 3 10:11 -1 10
L D W W D
4 9 4 2 3 15:8 7 14
W W W L D
4 9 3 3 3 7:10 -3 12
D W L L L
4 9 3 2 4 8:9 -1 11
D W L L W
4 9 3 3 3 11:10 1 12
W L L W L
4 9 3 2 4 10:13 -3 11
D L L W W
4 9 2 4 3 9:8 1 10
D W D W L
5 8 3 1 4 4:7 -3 10
D L W W L
5 9 2 3 4 10:15 -5 9
D D W L L
5 9 2 3 4 10:16 -6 9
D D L L W
5 9 2 3 4 8:10 -2 9
W L W L L
5 9 3 1 5 9:17 -8 10
L L D L W
5 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L D L W L
5 9 2 4 3 7:9 -2 10
L D L D D
5 9 3 3 3 8:8 0 12
D L W W L
5 9 2 3 4 8:11 -3 9
L D D L L
5 9 2 4 3 7:10 -3 10
D D W L D
5 9 3 1 5 14:22 -8 10
L L W L D
5 9 2 5 2 9:9 0 11
D W L L D
5 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
D L W D L
5 9 2 3 4 11:17 -6 9
L L W W D
5 9 2 3 4 8:14 -6 9
L L D L W
5 9 2 2 5 6:13 -7 8
D L L L W
6 9 0 2 7 2:18 -16 2
L D L L L
6 8 2 1 5 9:15 -6 7
W L L L W
6 9 1 2 6 4:13 -9 5
D D L L W
6 9 2 3 4 7:9 -2 9
W W L D D
6 9 1 4 4 6:11 -5 7
D D D W L
6 9 2 1 6 6:13 -7 7
L L L W D
6 9 2 3 4 6:10 -4 9
L W W D D
6 9 1 1 7 2:17 -15 4
L L L W L
6 8 1 2 5 5:10 -5 5
L W L D L
6 9 0 2 7 5:16 -11 2
L L L D L
6 9 0 0 9 4:37 -33 0
L L L L L
6 9 0 1 8 3:16 -13 1
L L D L L
6 9 1 2 6 7:15 -8 5
L D L W L
6 9 1 1 7 11:22 -11 4
L D L L L
6 9 0 4 5 10:18 -8 4
L D D L L
6 9 1 4 4 4:11 -7 7
L L L W D