Login Register
ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
20.10.2026 18:45
Plough Lane

AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds 2.90
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.8%
2.90 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.82 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
AFC Wimbledon Win 60.8%
Draw 6.7%
Mansfield Town Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
AFC Wimbledon1.25
Mansfield Town1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon
WWDLW
13 GF / 20 GA
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
WLDWL
21 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.87
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.83
5
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
9
2.6
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 15 matches
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 12 matches
AFC Wimbledon Statistic Mansfield Town
5 Wins 4
4 Draws 3
6 Losses 5
13 Goals For 21
20 Goals Against 22
0.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.83
5 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 3
2.6 Shots On Goal 4
10.5 Total Shots 14.89
5.3 Corners 4.89
45% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Mansfield Town. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AFC Wimbledon expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mansfield Town in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mansfield Town having the stronger overall control.

AFC Wimbledon Analysis

AFC Wimbledon are currently 11 in the standings with 12 points from 9 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 7:10 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Stockley (4 goals), M. Hippolyte (3 goals), with creative support from J. Tilley (2 assists), J. Stockley (1 assists), C. Maycock (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mansfield Town Analysis

Mansfield Town sit 14 with 11 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 12:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through N. Moriah-Welsh (3 goals), J. Russell (2 goals), M. Smith (2 goals), with creative support from N. Moriah-Welsh (2 assists), J. Russell (2 assists), M. Smith (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, AFC Wimbledon won 2 times, Mansfield Town won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from AFC Wimbledon's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.42 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.3%)
Predicted formations: AFC Wimbledon 3-4-2-1 / Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: AFC Wimbledon wins 2, draws 5, Mansfield Town wins 5

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 10:5 5 20
W D D W W
2 10 6 1 3 21:11 10 19
W W W D L
3 10 5 4 1 18:9 9 19
W D W L D
4 11 6 1 4 18:14 4 19
L W W L W
5 10 5 4 1 16:12 4 19
W W D D W
6 9 5 3 1 20:8 12 18
W D D D W
7 10 4 3 3 22:12 10 15
L W D D W
8 8 4 3 1 16:9 7 15
D W D W W
9 10 4 2 4 15:11 4 14
W D L W L
10 11 3 4 4 16:18 -2 13
D L L W D
11 10 3 4 3 16:20 -4 13
W L D W W
12 9 3 3 3 12:10 2 12
L W L W W
13 9 3 3 3 13:15 -2 12
D W D D L
14 9 3 3 3 12:15 -3 12
W L D W L
15 10 3 3 4 7:15 -8 12
L L D D W
16 9 3 2 4 17:17 0 11
L W L L D
17 9 2 3 4 10:11 -1 9
L W W L L
18 9 1 6 2 11:16 -5 9
W L D D D
19 10 2 3 5 9:16 -7 9
D W L L D
20 9 2 2 5 13:16 -3 8
L L L D L
21 9 2 2 5 9:17 -8 8
L L D L L
22 9 2 2 5 9:21 -12 8
L L W D L
23 9 1 4 4 8:13 -5 7
L L L L D
24 9 2 1 6 6:13 -7 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two