Login Register
CYPRUS › 1. DIVISION
25.10.2026 17:00
Alphamega Stadium

AEL vs Aris Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AEL Win 58.9%
Draw 5.5%
Aris Win 35.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
AEL1.7
Aris1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
AEL AEL
WWDLW
15 GF / 9 GA
Aris Aris
WLDWL
16 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
3
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AEL AEL 8 matches
Aris Aris 12 matches
AEL Statistic Aris
6 Wins 4
1 Draws 3
1 Losses 5
15 Goals For 16
9 Goals Against 17
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
3 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aris. AEL come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. AEL arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 12 points compared to Aris in 6 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AEL Analysis

AEL come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 12 points after 5 matches. With 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:8, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aris Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Aris have collected 8 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 6:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, AEL won 3 times, Aris won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:24 from AEL's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.31 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: AEL 4-2-3-1 / Aris 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: AEL wins 3, draws 3, Aris wins 7

Standings

1-division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
AEL Home
6 5 0 1 10:8 2 15
W W W W L
2 6 4 1 1 11:5 6 13
D W W L W
3 6 3 3 0 14:8 6 12
W W D D W
4 5 3 2 0 11:2 9 11
W W D W D
5 5 3 1 1 7:3 4 10
W L W D W
6
Aris Away
6 2 3 1 7:8 -1 9
D W D W L
7 6 2 2 2 11:9 2 8
W L L D D
8 5 2 1 2 12:8 4 7
W D L W L
9 6 1 3 2 4:6 -2 6
L L D D W
10 5 0 4 1 8:9 -1 4
L D D D D
11 6 1 1 4 11:15 -4 4
L L W L L
12 6 1 0 5 5:14 -9 3
W L L L L
13 6 1 0 5 4:13 -9 3
L L L W L
14 6 0 3 3 4:11 -7 3
L L D D D
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Cyprus League (Relegation Group)