GREECE SUPER LEAGUE 1
19.04.2026 15:00
Allwyn Arena
Referee: J. Manzano
AEK Athens FC
Match Timeline
PAOK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Jorge Sánchez
PAOK
🟨
30'
Mijat Gacinovic
AEK Athens FC
36'
T. Kedziora
AEK Athens FC
🔄
46'
J. Sanchez ↔ J. Kenny
PAOK
🔄
46'
D. Lovren ↔ G. Michailidis
PAOK
🟨
47'
Christos Zafeiris
PAOK
🟨
51'
Giannis Konstantelias
PAOK
🔄
56'
J. Penrice ↔ S. Pilios
AEK Athens FC
🔄
56'
M. Gacinovic ↔ A. Koita
AEK Athens FC
🔄
58'
D. Chatsidis ↔ A. Zivkovic
PAOK
🔄
58'
C. Zafeiris ↔ M. Camara
PAOK
🔄
67'
R. Pereyra ↔ Joao Mario
AEK Athens FC
73'
A. Koita · Assist: O. Pineda
AEK Athens FC
80'
O. Pineda
AEK Athens FC
🔄
82'
Taison ↔ D. Pelkas
PAOK
🔄
85'
Zini ↔ D. Kutesa
AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC vs PAOK Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 50.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
50.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
57.1%
-
Probability Distribution
AEK Athens FC Win 58.1%
Draw 5.2%
PAOK Win 36.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AEK Athens FC1.46
PAOK1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
WWDLW
80 GF / 34 GA
PAOK PAOK
WLDWL
76 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.85
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
17
BTTS Yes
16
20
Over 2.5
22
4.7
Shots on Goal
4.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 43 matches
PAOK PAOK 41 matches
AEK Athens FC Statistic PAOK
28 Wins 22
10 Draws 11
5 Losses 8
80 Goals For 76
34 Goals Against 35
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
17 BTTS Yes 16
30 Over 1.5 29
20 Over 2.5 22
16 Over 3.5 12
22 Clean Sheets 22
6 Failed To Score 10
4.7 Shots On Goal 4.68
14.14 Total Shots 12.37
5.02 Corners 4.9
50.9% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring PAOK. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AEK Athens FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and PAOK in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward PAOK having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

AEK Athens FC Analysis

AEK Athens FC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 63 points after 27 matches. The return of 19 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 50:17, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Luka Jović (16 goals), B. Varga (5 goals), Orbelín Pineda (4 goals), with creative support from R. Marin (7 assists), Lazaros Rota (5 assists), Robert Ljubičić (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

PAOK Analysis

PAOK come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 58 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 52:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Konstantelias (7 goals), Giorgos Giakoumakis (7 goals), M. Ozdoev (7 goals), with creative support from A. Zivkovic (9 assists), Taison (6 assists), M. Ozdoev (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AEK Athens FC won 4 times, PAOK won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from AEK Athens FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: AEK Athens FC 4-4-2 / PAOK 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: AEK Athens FC wins 4, draws 6, PAOK wins 5

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3
PAOK Away
26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round