GREECE › SUPER LEAGUE 1
10.05.2026 16:30
Allwyn Arena
Referee: H. Osmers
AEK Athens FC
Match Timeline
Panathinaikos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Harold Moukoudi
AEK Athens FC
🟨
34'
Filipe Relvas
AEK Athens FC
🟨
42'
Davide Calabria
Panathinaikos
🟨
61'
Andreas Tetteh
Panathinaikos
⚽
62'
A. Tetteh
Panathinaikos
🟨
64'
Thomas Strakosha
AEK Athens FC
🔄
66'
R. Pereyra ↔ Zini
AEK Athens FC
⚽
72'
Zini
AEK Athens FC
🔄
73'
P. Pantelidis ↔ A. Zaroury
Panathinaikos
🔄
74'
S. Kontouris ↔ M. Siopis
Panathinaikos
🔄
79'
S. Andino ↔ A. Jagusic
Panathinaikos
🔄
84'
V. Taborda ↔ F. Djuricic
Panathinaikos
🔄
84'
A. Tetteh ↔ M. Pantovic
Panathinaikos
🟨
85'
Orbelín Pineda
AEK Athens FC
🔄
86'
A. Koita ↔ P. Mantalos
AEK Athens FC
🔄
86'
R. Marin ↔ Joao Mario
AEK Athens FC
🔄
90+6'
L. Jovic ↔ R. Ljubicic
AEK Athens FC
⚽
90'
Joao Mario
AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AEK Athens FC Win 67%
Draw 0%
Panathinaikos Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
AEK Athens FC1.51
Panathinaikos1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
WWDLW
83 GF / 34 GA
Panathinaikos Panathinaikos
WLDWL
62 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
17
BTTS Yes
24
21
Over 2.5
21
4.73
Shots on Goal
4.34

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 45 matches
Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 47 matches
AEK Athens FC Statistic Panathinaikos
29 Wins 19
11 Draws 18
5 Losses 10
83 Goals For 62
34 Goals Against 48
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
17 BTTS Yes 24
31 Over 1.5 34
21 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 11
24 Clean Sheets 17
7 Failed To Score 14
4.73 Shots On Goal 4.34
14.29 Total Shots 12.32
5.09 Corners 4.6
51% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. AEK Athens FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 67 points compared to Panathinaikos in 4 on 51, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AEK Athens FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Panathinaikos in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Panathinaikos having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Panathinaikos. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

AEK Athens FC Analysis

AEK Athens FC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 67 points after 29 outings. With 20 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 53:17, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Luka Jović (16 goals), B. Varga (5 goals), Orbelín Pineda (5 goals), with creative support from R. Marin (7 assists), Lazaros Rota (5 assists), Robert Ljubičić (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 12 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Panathinaikos Analysis

Placed 4 with 51 points from 29 outings, Panathinaikos continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses, while the 44:28 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Alexander Jeremejeff (8 goals), Anastasios Bakasetas (5 goals), K. Swiderski (5 goals), with creative support from D. Calabria (4 assists), Anastasios Bakasetas (3 assists), Tete (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AEK Athens FC won 7 times, Panathinaikos won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:14 from AEK Athens FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AEK Athens FC 4-4-2 / Panathinaikos 5-4-1
H2H summary: AEK Athens FC wins 7, draws 4, Panathinaikos wins 4

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3 26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round