PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Union Tarma
Referee: A. Menendez
ADT
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
A. Valera
Universitario
28'
J. J. Canela Torres
ADT
🟨
30'
Luis Pérez
ADT
31'
L. Alzugaray
Universitario
🟥
45+4'
John Narváez
ADT
VAR
45+10'
Horacio Benincasa
ADT
VAR
45+4'
John Narváez
ADT
🟨
45+7'
Jorge Murrugarra
Universitario
VAR
52'
José Rivera
Universitario
🔄
67'
J. J. Canela Torres ↔ A. Mazzo
ADT
🔄
67'
J. Rivera ↔ E. Flores
Universitario
🔄
67'
J. Concha ↔ A. Quiroz
Universitario
🔄
76'
H. Fertoli ↔ J. Requena
Universitario
🔄
76'
J. Murrugarra ↔ J. Castillo
Universitario
🔄
78'
J. Alvino ↔ H. Rengifo
ADT
🔄
83'
A. Valera ↔ G. Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
87'
J. Garcilazo ↔ A. Rodriguez
ADT
🔄
87'
A. Ojeda ↔ L. Rugel
ADT

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.2%
Odds 1.36
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.2%
1.36
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.47
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75
Correct Score 2-0
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
ADT Win 49.1%
Draw 4.8%
Universitario Win 46.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
ADT1.12
Universitario1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
ADT ADT
WWDLW
23 GF / 23 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
37 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
9
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
12
5.35
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ADT ADT 18 matches
Universitario Universitario 27 matches
ADT Statistic Universitario
5 Wins 12
5 Draws 8
8 Losses 7
23 Goals For 37
23 Goals Against 24
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
9 BTTS Yes 12
12 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 12
4 Failed To Score 9
5.35 Shots On Goal 3.96
13.06 Total Shots 13.48
4.06 Corners 6.3
55.1% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ADT expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universitario in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universitario. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

ADT Analysis

ADT are currently 10 in the standings with 20 points from 17 matches. The record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 22:21 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Guivin Tanta (5 goals), Jonathan Bauman (4 goals), J. Rojas (3 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cabello (5 assists), J. Rojas (2 assists), John Narváez (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 29 points after 17 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 24:15 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by A. Valera (8 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), C. Fara (2 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (5 assists), J. Carabali (4 assists), A. Polo (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, ADT won 2 times, Universitario won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:19 from ADT's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: ADT 4-2-3-1 / Universitario 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: ADT wins 2, draws 1, Universitario wins 7
Stats
ADT ADT
Universitario Universitario
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 3
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Goal 6
7 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 3
4 Shots insidebox 8
10 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
419 Total passes 302
372 Passes accurate 247
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

ADT
Formation
Universitario
J. Valencia
J. Valencia
J. Garcilazo
J. Garcilazo
J. Narvaez
J. Narvaez
A. Ojeda
A. Ojeda
H. Benincasa
H. Benincasa
J. Alvino
J. Alvino
L. Perez
L. Perez
J. J. Canela Torres
J. J. Canela Torres
J. Rojas
J. Rojas
O. Nunez
O. Nunez
J. Bauman
J. Bauman
D. Romero
D. Romero
A. Polo
A. Polo
C. Fara
C. Fara
M. Di Benedetto
M. Di Benedetto
C. Inga
C. Inga
J. Murrugarra
J. Murrugarra
L. Alzugaray
L. Alzugaray
H. Fertoli
H. Fertoli
J. Concha
J. Concha
A. Valera
A. Valera
J. Rivera
J. Rivera
ADT 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
J. Valencia
G
26
J. Garcilazo
↓ 87'
D
23
J. Narvaez
🟥 45+4'
D
6
A. Ojeda
↓ 87'
D
44
H. Benincasa
D
15
J. Alvino
↓ 78'
16
L. Perez
🟨 30'
M
80
J. J. Canela Torres
⚽ 28' ↓ 67'
M
7
J. Rojas
M
59
O. Nunez
M
32
J. Bauman
F
Substitutes
33
C. Solis
G
9
H. Rengifo
↑ 78'
F
22
A. Rodriguez
↑ 87'
F
31
J. Navarro
D
25
S. Garcia
24
S. Peralta
3
L. Rugel
↑ 87'
D
2
J. Reyes
M
18
A. Mazzo
↑ 67'
F
Universitario 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
D. Romero
G
24
A. Polo
D
2
C. Fara
D
5
M. Di Benedetto
D
33
C. Inga
D
23
J. Murrugarra
↓ 76' 🟨 45+7'
M
30
L. Alzugaray
⚽ 31'
M
8
H. Fertoli
↓ 76'
M
17
J. Concha
↓ 67'
M
20
A. Valera
⚽ 20' ↓ 83'
F
11
J. Rivera
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
25
M. Vargas
G
19
E. Flores
↑ 67'
M
3
W. Riveros
D
15
J. Requena
↑ 76'
M
6
J. Castillo
↑ 76'
M
34
C. Loayza
18
G. Lapadula
↑ 83'
F
28
A. Quiroz
↑ 67'
M
60
J. Diaz
Last matches: ADT
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
ADT
Sporting Cristal
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
ADT
UCV Moquegua
2
2
D
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
ADT
Cienciano
2
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Huancayo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
0
2
L
18.01.26
Fri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
Last matches: Universitario
11.07.26
Fri
Universitario
Millonarios
2
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Universitario
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
Universitario
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
H2H: ADT vs Universitario
18.07.26
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
01.02.26
H2H
Universitario
ADT
2
0
L
26.10.25
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
21.06.25
H2H
Universitario
ADT
5
0
L
20.10.24
H2H
Universitario
ADT
2
1
L
03.05.24
H2H
ADT
Universitario
2
0
W
16.08.23
H2H
ADT
Universitario
2
0
W
19.03.23
H2H
Universitario
ADT
3
1
L
21.08.22
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
1
D
05.04.22
H2H
Universitario
ADT
2
1
L
Last matches: ADT
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
H2H at home: ADT
18.07.26
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
26.10.25
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
03.05.24
H2H
ADT
Universitario
2
0
W
16.08.23
H2H
ADT
Universitario
2
0
W
21.08.22
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
1
D
Last matches: Universitario
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
1
1
D
H2H away: Universitario
18.07.26
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
2
W
26.10.25
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
2
W
03.05.24
H2H
ADT
Universitario
2
0
L
16.08.23
H2H
ADT
Universitario
2
0
L
21.08.22
H2H
ADT
Universitario
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.92
Home 2.98
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.96
Draw 2.06
Home 3.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.58
Over 2.25 1.87
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 2.75 2.44
Over 3.0 3.04
Under 1.5 3.07
Under 1.75 2.70
Under 2.0 2.34
Under 2.25 1.93
Under 2.5 1.69
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.35
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 3.20
Home 2.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.10
Home 3.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.38
Home 3.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.29
Draw 3.06
Home 3.22
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.98
Draw 1.92
Home 4.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.57
Draw 2.33
Home 3.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.19
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 2.75 2.36
Over 3.0 2.91
Over 3.25 3.26
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 3.75 4.52
Over 4.0 6.40
Over 4.25 6.85
Over 4.5 7.30
Over 5.0 11.50
Over 5.5 14.50
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 0.75 7.46
Under 1.0 6.65
Under 1.25 4.00
Under 1.5 2.97
Under 1.75 2.66
Under 2.0 2.26
Under 2.25 1.93
Under 2.5 1.71
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.25 1.04
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.33
Draw 3.25
Home 2.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 2.16
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.63
Draw 2.45
Home 3.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.74
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.28
Over 3.0 2.80
Over 3.25 3.10
Over 3.5 3.45
Over 3.75 4.20
Over 4.0 5.75
Over 4.25 6.00
Over 4.5 6.25
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 2.0 2.40
Under 2.25 1.96
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08