PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.97
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.6%
1.97
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.97
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.1%
1.09
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
ADT Win 59.6%
Draw 5.7%
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 34.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
ADT1.14
Deportivo Garcilaso1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
ADT ADT
WWDLW
24 GF / 27 GA
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WLDWL
23 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
10
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
7
5.05
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ADT ADT 20 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 19 matches
ADT Statistic Deportivo Garcilaso
5 Wins 8
5 Draws 5
10 Losses 6
24 Goals For 23
27 Goals Against 20
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
10 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 5
5.05 Shots On Goal 4.16
12.84 Total Shots 11.47
3.84 Corners 3.32
54.7% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Deportivo Garcilaso's more proactive style and ADT's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. ADT have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Garcilaso. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ADT Analysis

ADT sit 12 with 20 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 23:25 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jonathan Bauman (3 goals), Jordan Guivin (3 goals), Joao Rojas (2 goals), with creative support from Joao Rojas (2 assists), John Narváez (2 assists), Carlos Cabello (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

So far, Deportivo Garcilaso have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 26 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 21:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Christopher Olivares (5 goals), Beto Da Silva (3 goals), Francisco Arancibia (1 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (3 assists), Christopher Olivares (1 assists), Beto Da Silva (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, ADT won 1 times, Deportivo Garcilaso won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from ADT's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.63 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: ADT 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: ADT wins 1, draws 3, Deportivo Garcilaso wins 4
Last matches: ADT
25.07.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
0
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
ADT
Sporting Cristal
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
ADT
UCV Moquegua
2
2
D
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
ADT
Cienciano
2
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Huancayo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
0
2
L
18.01.26
Fri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
27.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
17.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
30.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Boys
3
2
W
22.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
2
3
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
H2H: ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso
14.02.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
L
01.11.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
L
28.06.25
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
13.09.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
2
D
06.03.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
0
0
D
15.07.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
2
W
11.02.23
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
Last matches: ADT
18.07.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
H2H at home: ADT
28.06.25
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
2
D
11.02.23
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
17.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
0
1
L
25.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
1
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
0
1
L
09.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
H2H away: Deportivo Garcilaso
28.06.25
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
2
D
11.02.23
H2H
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.32
Draw 3.38
Home 1.97
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.76
Draw 2.10
Home 2.49
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.36
Over 2.0 1.47
Over 2.25 1.72
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.24
Over 3.0 2.70
Over 3.25 3.02
Under 1.75 2.82
Under 2.0 2.45
Under 2.25 2.01
Under 2.5 1.78
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.32
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 3.30
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.40
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.43
Draw 3.42
Home 2.04
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.18
Draw 2.09
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.42
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.46
Over 2.25 1.74
Over 2.5 1.96
Over 2.75 2.20
Over 3.0 2.66
Over 3.25 2.98
Over 3.5 3.28
Over 3.75 4.02
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.25 5.80
Over 4.5 6.15
Over 5.0 10.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 8.40
Under 0.75 7.90
Under 1.0 7.20
Under 1.25 4.23
Under 1.5 3.08
Under 1.75 2.81
Under 2.0 2.43
Under 2.25 2.04
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 2.75 1.59
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.32
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 3.35
Home 2.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.12
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.45
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.25 1.76
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 2.75 2.30
Over 3.0 2.88
Over 3.25 3.20
Over 3.5 3.55
Over 3.75 4.35
Over 4.0 6.00
Over 4.25 6.25
Over 4.5 6.50
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 2.0 2.32
Under 2.25 1.91
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.08
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W D W W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
L W D L W
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
L L W D L
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W W W D L
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W W W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
L W W W L
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W L W D W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
W L L D W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
D D L D L
10
ADT Home
17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L L L W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W L W D W
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L W L
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D L D D L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
D D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
L D D D W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
L W W L W
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
W L L D L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
W D L D L
Play-offs