PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Union Tarma
Referee: S. Lozano
ADT
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
J. Molina
Alianza Atletico
29'
J. Bauman · Assist: J. Soto
ADT
🟨
34'
J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
40'
E. Perleche
Alianza Atletico
🟨
45+2'
J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟥
45+2'
J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
59'
J. Molina
Alianza Atletico
🔄
61'
H. Benincasa ↔ A. Ramos
ADT
🔄
62'
J. Navarro ↔ J. Lucumi
ADT
🔄
65'
A. Gordillo ↔ J. Mendieta
Alianza Atletico
🟨
66'
A. Ojeda
ADT
🟨
69'
R. Suarez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
72'
S. Peralta ↔ A. Hidalgo
ADT
🔄
72'
A. Ojeda ↔ H. Rengifo
ADT
🔄
72'
E. Perleche ↔ W. Guzman
Alianza Atletico
🟨
86'
J. J. Canela Torres
ADT
🟨
86'
J. Lujan
Alianza Atletico
87'
J. Bauman · Assist: J. Bauman
ADT
🟨
89'
L. Perez
ADT
🔄
90'
J. Molina ↔ S. Fernandez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90'
J. Ingratti ↔ G. A. Larios Saavedra
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90+2'
O. Nunez ↔ J. Garcilazo
ADT

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.2%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.94
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.2%
1.28
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.94
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.9%
1.47
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
ADT Win 48.3%
Draw 21.9%
Alianza Atletico Win 29.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
ADT1.21
Alianza Atletico1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
ADT ADT
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
26 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
11
4.81
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ADT ADT 22 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 22 matches
ADT Statistic Alianza Atletico
5 Wins 7
6 Draws 6
11 Losses 9
25 Goals For 26
29 Goals Against 29
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
11 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
4.81 Shots On Goal 4.81
12.67 Total Shots 13.29
3.81 Corners 3.19
54% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Atletico. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ADT expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alianza Atletico in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Atletico having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ADT Analysis

With 20 points from 17 games and a place of 10, ADT still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:21, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Bauman (3 goals), Jordan Guivin (3 goals), Joao Rojas (2 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cabello (3 assists), Joao Rojas (2 assists), John Narváez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico sit 8 with 21 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 20:18, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Jorge del Castillo (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Hernan Lupú (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, ADT won 3 times, Alianza Atletico won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from ADT's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Predicted formations: ADT 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-3-3
H2H summary: ADT wins 3, draws 4, Alianza Atletico wins 3
Stats
ADT ADT
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
15 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 0
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Goal 3
10 Shots off Goal 2
5 Blocked Shots 2
10 Shots insidebox 4
10 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
350 Total passes 216
290 Passes accurate 145
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 6 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

ADT
Formation
Alianza Atletico
Juan Valencia
Juan Valencia
Jerry Navarro
Jerry Navarro
John Narváez
John Narváez
Jhair Soto
🎯
Jhair Soto
Horacio Benincasa
Horacio Benincasa
Luis Pérez
Luis Pérez
Ángel Ojeda
Ángel Ojeda
Said Peralta
Said Peralta
Jeremy Canela
Jeremy Canela
Orlando Nuñez
Orlando Nuñez
Jonathan Bauman
⚽ 2 🎯
Jonathan Bauman
Steven Rivadeneyra
Steven Rivadeneyra
Erick Perleche
Erick Perleche
Román Suárez
Román Suárez
José Luján
José Luján
Anthony Gordillo
Anthony Gordillo
German Diaz
German Diaz
Hernan Lupú
Hernan Lupú
José Ingratti
José Ingratti
Jorge del Castillo
Jorge del Castillo
Cristian Penilla
Cristian Penilla
Jairo Molina
Jairo Molina
ADT 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
Juan Valencia
G
31
Jerry Navarro
↓ 62'
D
23
John Narváez
D
28
Jhair Soto
🎯 29'
D
44
Horacio Benincasa
↓ 61'
D
16
Luis Pérez
🟨 89'
M
6
Ángel Ojeda
↓ 72' 🟨 66'
M
24
Said Peralta
M
80
Jeremy Canela
🟨 86'
M
59
Orlando Nuñez
↓ 90+2'
M
32
Jonathan Bauman
⚽ 29' ⚽ 87' 🎯 87'
F
Substitutes
98
Alejandro Ramos
↑ 61'
D
77
Juan Lucumí
↑ 62'
F
27
Alexander Hidalgo
↑ 72'
M
9
Hernán Rengifo
↑ 72'
F
26
Jhojan Garcilazo
↑ 90+2'
F
33
Carlos Solis
G
3
Leonardo Rugel
D
10
Víctor Cedrón
M
2
Jair Reyes
M
Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
Steven Rivadeneyra
G
21
Erick Perleche
↓ 72' 🟨 40'
D
2
Román Suárez
🟨 69'
D
6
José Luján
🟨 86'
D
24
Anthony Gordillo
↓ 65'
D
10
German Diaz
M
15
Hernan Lupú
M
27
José Ingratti
↓ 90'
M
22
Jorge del Castillo
🟨 34' 🟨 45+2' 🟥 45+2'
M
17
Cristian Penilla
M
29
Jairo Molina
⚽ 23' ↓ 90' 🟨 59'
F
Substitutes
19
Jesus Mendieta
↑ 65'
D
25
Williams Guzmán
↑ 72'
D
16
Stefano Fernández
↑ 90'
M
11
Guillermo Larios
↑ 90'
F
95
Daniel Prieto
G
23
Ariel Muñoz
M
8
Franchesco Flores
M
20
Jimmy Pérez
M
77
Christian Valladolid
F
Last matches: ADT
08.08.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
25.07.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
0
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
ADT
Sporting Cristal
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
ADT
UCV Moquegua
2
2
D
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
ADT
Cienciano
2
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Huancayo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
Last matches: Alianza Atletico
06.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cienciano
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
24.07.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cusco
1
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
24.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Universitario
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sport Boys
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Atletico Grau
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
UCV Moquegua
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
ADT
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cienciano
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
0
0
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
H2H: ADT vs Alianza Atletico
15.08.26
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
27.02.26
H2H
Alianza Atletico
ADT
0
0
D
26.09.25
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
04.05.25
H2H
Alianza Atletico
ADT
2
0
L
28.09.24
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
1
L
28.04.24
H2H
Alianza Atletico
ADT
1
2
W
24.09.23
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
06.05.23
H2H
Alianza Atletico
ADT
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Alianza Atletico
ADT
2
2
D
24.04.22
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
Last matches: ADT
02.08.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
18.07.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
H2H at home: ADT
15.08.26
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
26.09.25
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
28.09.24
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
1
L
24.09.23
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
0
W
24.04.22
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
Last matches: Alianza Atletico
02.08.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
18.07.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cusco
1
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Juan Pablo II College
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Universitario
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
07.03.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Cienciano
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Atletico
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Alianza Atletico
Juan Pablo II College
0
3
L
H2H away: Alianza Atletico
15.08.26
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
26.09.25
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
0
L
28.09.24
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
1
W
24.09.23
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
0
L
24.04.22
H2H
ADT
Alianza Atletico
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.64
Draw 3.28
Home 2.01
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.92
Draw 2.17
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.34
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.69
Over 2.5 1.94
Over 2.75 2.19
Over 3.0 2.61
Over 3.25 2.93
Under 1.75 3.07
Under 2.0 2.66
Under 2.25 2.13
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 2.75 1.65
Under 3.0 1.45
Under 3.25 1.37
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 3.30
Home 1.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.20
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.50
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.61
Draw 3.32
Home 2.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.39
Draw 2.04
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.78
Draw 2.45
Home 2.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 1.75 1.33
Over 2.0 1.42
Over 2.25 1.66
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 2.75 2.16
Over 3.0 2.52
Over 3.25 2.85
Over 3.5 3.08
Over 3.75 3.84
Over 4.0 5.20
Over 4.25 5.55
Over 4.5 5.95
Over 5.0 9.10
Over 5.5 11.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 8.80
Under 0.75 8.20
Under 1.0 7.60
Under 1.25 4.46
Under 1.5 3.28
Under 1.75 2.92
Under 2.0 2.55
Under 2.25 2.08
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 2.75 1.65
Under 3.0 1.43
Under 3.25 1.36
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 3.75 1.19
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.08
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 3.45
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.23
Home 2.63
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 2.50
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 2.0 1.43
Over 2.25 1.65
Over 2.5 1.87
Over 2.75 2.12
Over 3.0 2.55
Over 3.25 2.88
Over 3.5 3.15
Over 3.75 3.85
Over 4.0 5.20
Over 4.25 5.50
Over 4.5 5.75
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.0 2.55
Under 2.25 2.05
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 2.75 1.62
Under 3.0 1.43
Under 3.25 1.35
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.10
Under 4.5 1.09

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10
ADT Home
17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)