15.08.2026 18:00
Estadio Union Tarma
Referee: Sebastian Lozano, Peru
ADT
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
J. Molina
Alianza Atletico
29'
J. Bauman · Assist: J. Soto
ADT
🟨
34'
Jorge del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
40'
Erick Perleche
Alianza Atletico
🟨
45+2'
Jorge del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟥
45+2'
Jorge del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
59'
Jairo Molina
Alianza Atletico
🔄
61'
H. Benincasa ↔ A. Ramos
ADT
🔄
62'
J. Navarro ↔ J. Lucumi
ADT
🔄
65'
A. Gordillo ↔ J. Mendieta
Alianza Atletico
🟨
66'
Ángel Ojeda
ADT
🟨
69'
Román Suárez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
72'
S. Peralta ↔ A. Hidalgo
ADT
🔄
72'
A. Ojeda ↔ H. Rengifo
ADT
🔄
72'
E. Perleche ↔ W. Guzman
Alianza Atletico
🟨
86'
Jeremy Canela
ADT
🟨
86'
José Luján
Alianza Atletico
87'
Jonathan Bauman
ADT
🟨
89'
Luis Pérez
ADT
🔄
90+2'
O. Nunez ↔ J. Garcilazo
ADT
🔄
90'
J. Molina ↔ S. Fernandez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90'
J. Ingratti ↔ G. A. Larios Saavedra
Alianza Atletico

ADT vs Alianza Atletico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
ADT Win 48.3%
Draw 21.9%
Alianza Atletico Win 29.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
ADT1.21
Alianza Atletico1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
ADT ADT
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
26 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
11
4.81
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ADT ADT 22 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 22 matches
ADT Statistic Alianza Atletico
5 Wins 7
6 Draws 6
11 Losses 9
25 Goals For 26
29 Goals Against 29
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
11 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
4.81 Shots On Goal 4.81
12.67 Total Shots 13.33
3.81 Corners 3.19
54% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Atletico. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ADT expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alianza Atletico in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Atletico having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ADT Analysis

With 20 points from 17 games and a place of 10, ADT still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:21, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Bauman (3 goals), Jordan Guivin (3 goals), Joao Rojas (2 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cabello (3 assists), Joao Rojas (2 assists), John Narváez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico sit 8 with 21 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 20:18, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cristian Penilla (4 goals), Valentín Robaldo (2 goals), Jorge del Castillo (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Penilla (2 assists), Hernan Lupú (2 assists), Valentín Robaldo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, ADT won 3 times, Alianza Atletico won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from ADT's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.1%)
Predicted formations: ADT 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-3-3
H2H summary: ADT wins 3, draws 4, Alianza Atletico wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17
ADT Home
25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2