ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
03.10.2026 14:00
The Wham Stadium

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Accrington ST Win 31.7%
Draw 13.7%
Cheltenham Win 54.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Accrington ST1.3
Cheltenham1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Accrington ST Accrington ST
WWDLW
16 GF / 14 GA
Cheltenham Cheltenham
WLDWL
19 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.9
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
6
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
8
4.75
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Accrington ST Accrington ST 13 matches
Cheltenham Cheltenham 10 matches
Accrington ST Statistic Cheltenham
4 Wins 5
6 Draws 3
3 Losses 2
16 Goals For 19
14 Goals Against 14
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.9
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
6 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 1
4.75 Shots On Goal 4
13.5 Total Shots 9.75
4 Corners 4.38
46.6% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Cheltenham's more proactive style and Accrington ST's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cheltenham. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Accrington ST expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Cheltenham in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cheltenham having the stronger overall control. Cheltenham carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 12 points while Accrington ST sit 21 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Accrington ST Analysis

Accrington ST approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 21 with 6 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with a 10:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on C. Caton (3 goals), J. Woods (1 goals), D. Matthews (1 goals), with creative support from J. Woods (1 assists), T. Walton (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cheltenham Analysis

Cheltenham arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 12 points after 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 14:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. McCann (4 goals), A. Weimann (3 goals), R. Broom (2 goals), with creative support from A. Weimann (1 assists), P. Sweeney (1 assists), J. Shipley (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Accrington ST won 4 times, Cheltenham won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:18 from Accrington ST's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Accrington ST 3-4-1-2 / Cheltenham 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Accrington ST wins 4, draws 6, Cheltenham wins 5

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
2 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
W D W D W
3 8 5 0 3 13:11 2 15
W L L W W
4 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
5 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
6 8 3 4 1 12:8 4 13
L W W D D
7 8 4 1 3 12:10 2 13
W W D W W
8 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
L W W W D
9 8 2 6 0 8:6 2 12
D D D D D
10 8 2 5 1 10:8 2 11
D D L W D
11 8 3 2 3 11:10 1 11
L W W D D
12 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
D L L W W
13 8 2 4 2 11:11 0 10
D W D L D
14 8 2 4 2 9:9 0 10
L L D W D
15 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
16 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
W W D L W
17 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
W D D L L
18 8 2 2 4 7:13 -6 8
D D W L L
19 8 1 4 3 11:14 -3 7
D D L W D
20 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
21 8 1 3 4 4:6 -2 6
L D L D D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League