FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Raatin stadion
Referee: D. Antamo
AC Oulu
Match Timeline
VPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Julius Paananen
AC Oulu
🟨
52'
Simon van Duivenbooden
VPS
🔄
58'
M. Pitkanen ↔ A. Lietsa
AC Oulu
🟥
66'
Martti Haukioja
VPS
🔄
70'
S. van Duivenbooden ↔ M. Niemi
VPS
🔄
70'
S. Lindholm ↔ A. Raisanen
VPS
73'
I. Mendolin · Assist: E. Kallio
AC Oulu
🟨
78'
Alex Lietsa
AC Oulu
🔄
80'
L. Ghezali ↔ K. Jatta
AC Oulu
🔄
80'
Y. Daoussi ↔ L. Smyth
VPS
🔄
80'
J. Turfkruier ↔ K. Kouassivi-Benissan
VPS
🔄
80'
J. Muzinga ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS
🟨
90+2'
Vilmer Ronnberg
VPS
🟥
90+2'
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
VPS
🔄
90+3'
E. Kallio ↔ S. Silander
AC Oulu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 76%
Draw 20.6%
VPS Win 3.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.83
VPS0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
10 GF / 4 GA
VPS VPS
WLDWL
4 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
2.5
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
2
5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 4 matches
VPS VPS 6 matches
AC Oulu Statistic VPS
3 Wins 1
1 Draws 3
0 Losses 2
10 Goals For 4
4 Goals Against 5
2.5 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
3 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 3
2 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 3
5 Shots On Goal 0
14.5 Total Shots 0.5
3 Corners 1.5
43.5% Ball Possession 16.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AC Oulu's more proactive style and VPS's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors VPS. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 4-4-2 and VPS in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VPS having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AC Oulu arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 6 points compared to VPS in 8 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

AC Oulu Analysis

Placed 1 with 6 points from 2 outings, AC Oulu continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses with goals at 6:1 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Korkko (2 goals), R. Karjalainen (2 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Kallio (1 assists), T. Kaukua (1 assists), L. Ghezali (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 8 with 2 points after 2 league matches. The record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 0:0 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 5 times, VPS won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:25 from AC Oulu's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (96.6%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 4-4-2 / VPS 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 5, draws 5, VPS wins 5
Stats
AC Oulu AC Oulu
VPS VPS
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 6
10 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 4
5 Shots insidebox 5
6 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
354 Total passes 346
252 Passes accurate 240
0.83 expected_goals 0.94
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

AC Oulu
Formation
VPS
M. Santos
M. Santos
O. Kemppainen
O. Kemppainen
M. Pitkanen
M. Pitkanen
J. Pirinen
J. Pirinen
T. Kaukua
T. Kaukua
I. Mendolin
I. Mendolin
J. Paananen
J. Paananen
L. Ghezali
L. Ghezali
R. Karjalainen
R. Karjalainen
E. Kallio
🎯
E. Kallio
J. Korkko
J. Korkko
M. Jalloh
M. Jalloh
E. Okereke
E. Okereke
M. Haukioja
M. Haukioja
V. Ronnberg
V. Ronnberg
Y. Daoussi
Y. Daoussi
P. Lima
P. Lima
L. Mane
L. Mane
S. Lindholm
S. Lindholm
J. Turfkruier
J. Turfkruier
J. Muzinga
J. Muzinga
S. van Duivenbooden
S. van Duivenbooden
AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
M. Santos
G
16
O. Kemppainen
D
5
M. Pitkanen
↓ 58'
D
66
J. Pirinen
D
22
T. Kaukua
D
21
I. Mendolin
⚽ 73'
M
6
J. Paananen
🟨 33'
M
11
L. Ghezali
↓ 80'
M
7
R. Karjalainen
M
27
E. Kallio
🎯 73' ↓ 90+3'
M
26
J. Korkko
F
Substitutes
99
N. Schulz
G
14
N. Jokelainen
M
29
S. Silander
↑ 90+3'
M
30
J. Makelainen
M
8
M. Ojala
M
2
S. Sipola
D
3
A. Lietsa
↑ 58' 🟨 78'
D
40
J. Korhonen
M
20
K. Jatta
↑ 80'
M
VPS 3-5-2
Starting XI
41
M. Jalloh
G
6
E. Okereke
D
19
M. Haukioja
🟥 66'
D
5
V. Ronnberg
🟨 90+2'
D
24
Y. Daoussi
↓ 80'
M
8
P. Lima
M
2
L. Mane
M
14
S. Lindholm
↓ 70'
M
7
J. Turfkruier
↓ 80'
M
11
J. Muzinga
↓ 80'
F
9
S. van Duivenbooden
↓ 70' 🟨 52'
F
Substitutes
12
L. Vayrynen
G
23
M. Niemi
↑ 70'
D
33
A. Kuek
15
L. Smyth
↑ 80'
F
30
J. Vahtera
M
34
A. Raisanen
↑ 70'
M
27
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
↑ 80'
M
13
O. Ogunniyi
↑ 80' 🟥 90+2'
M
35
O. Keturi
M
Last matches: AC Oulu
25.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
Last matches: VPS
25.07.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
3
L
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H: AC Oulu vs VPS
23.06.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
L
18.04.26
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
24.01.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
4
W
04.10.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
0
W
28.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
W
05.04.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
4
3
L
08.02.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
2
1
L
17.01.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
3
3
D
19.06.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
27.04.24
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
2
L
17.02.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
15.07.23
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
3
0
L
22.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
0
0
D
13.05.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
W
11.02.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
1
D
Last matches: AC Oulu
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H at home: AC Oulu
18.04.26
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
04.10.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
0
W
28.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
W
17.01.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
3
3
D
27.04.24
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
2
L
22.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
0
0
D
13.05.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
W
11.02.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
1
D
Last matches: VPS
25.07.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
3
L
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
H2H away: VPS
18.04.26
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
L
04.10.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
0
L
28.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
L
17.01.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
3
3
D
27.04.24
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
2
W
22.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
0
0
D
13.05.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
L
11.02.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
1
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 32:16 16 36
W W W W W
2 16 8 7 1 23:12 11 31
D W D D D
3
VPS Away
17 7 6 4 24:16 8 27
L L W W D
4 17 8 3 6 21:21 0 27
D L L D L
5 16 7 4 5 27:20 7 25
W L L W D
6 16 7 4 5 25:20 5 25
W W L D D
7 16 6 4 6 20:15 5 22
W W W D D
8 16 6 4 6 20:19 1 22
L W L W D
9 16 5 4 7 28:30 -2 19
W L D L W
10 17 3 6 8 17:33 -16 15
W D W L D
11 17 3 5 9 19:27 -8 14
L L L W D
12 17 0 5 12 9:36 -27 5
D L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)