FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Raatin stadion
Referee: P. Simani
AC Oulu
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Markus Arsalo
AC Oulu
44'
M. Gueye
HJK Helsinki
🔄
46'
A. Kone ↔ C. Triana
AC Oulu
🔄
49'
M. Arsalo ↔ I. Mendolin
AC Oulu
🟨
63'
Martin Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🔄
66'
L. Ghezali ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
66'
E. Kallio ↔ K. Jatta
AC Oulu
🔄
66'
T. Pukki ↔ M. Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🔄
66'
S. Haarala ↔ L. Moller
HJK Helsinki
🟨
77'
Kalifa Jatta
AC Oulu
🟨
79'
Miguel Santos
AC Oulu
🟨
79'
Ville Tikkanen
HJK Helsinki
🟨
80'
Lucas Lingman
HJK Helsinki
🔄
80'
M. Gueye ↔ A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
🔄
80'
A. Cicale ↔ T. Mero
HJK Helsinki
🔄
88'
K. Simojoki ↔ L. Montano
HJK Helsinki

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 38.7%
Draw 13%
HJK Helsinki Win 48.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.26
HJK Helsinki1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
26 GF / 24 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
44 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
10
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
15
2.11
Shots on Goal
1.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 20 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 25 matches
AC Oulu Statistic HJK Helsinki
10 Wins 12
4 Draws 5
6 Losses 8
26 Goals For 44
24 Goals Against 30
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
10 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 19
8 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 10
4 Failed To Score 5
2.11 Shots On Goal 1.67
5.61 Total Shots 3.9
2.17 Corners 1.52
21.3% Ball Possession 20.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and AC Oulu's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring HJK Helsinki. AC Oulu have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and HJK Helsinki in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu sit 6 with 27 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats with a 21:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Kallio (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 28 points from 17 games, HJK Helsinki bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Brooklyn Lyons-Foster (1 goals), M. Borchers (1 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 5 times, HJK Helsinki won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:24 from AC Oulu's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 4-2-3-1 / HJK Helsinki 4-3-3
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 5, draws 2, HJK Helsinki wins 8

Lineups

AC Oulu
Formation
HJK Helsinki
M. Santos
M. Santos
T. Kaukua
T. Kaukua
A. Lietsa
A. Lietsa
J. Pirinen
J. Pirinen
A. Cassama
A. Cassama
L. Ghezali
L. Ghezali
M. Arsalo
M. Arsalo
J. Paananen
J. Paananen
R. Karjalainen
R. Karjalainen
A. Kone
A. Kone
E. Kallio
E. Kallio
M. Markovic
M. Markovic
M. Ylitolva
M. Ylitolva
V. Tikkanen
V. Tikkanen
T. Cissokho
T. Cissokho
K. Simojoki
K. Simojoki
M. Gueye
M. Gueye
L. Lingman
L. Lingman
S. Haarala
S. Haarala
M. Kirilov
M. Kirilov
A. Cicale
A. Cicale
T. Pukki
T. Pukki
AC Oulu 4-3-3
Starting XI
13
M. Santos
🟨 79'
G
22
T. Kaukua
M
3
A. Lietsa
D
66
J. Pirinen
D
18
A. Cassama
M
11
L. Ghezali
↓ 66'
M
25
M. Arsalo
↓ 49' 🟨 20'
M
6
J. Paananen
M
7
R. Karjalainen
M
32
A. Kone
↓ 46'
M
27
E. Kallio
↓ 66'
M
Substitutes
99
N. Schulz
G
14
N. Jokelainen
↑ 66'
M
10
C. Triana
↑ 46'
F
29
S. Silander
D
21
I. Mendolin
↑ 49'
M
8
M. Ojala
M
5
M. Pitkanen
D
2
S. Sipola
D
20
K. Jatta
↑ 66' 🟨 77'
M
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
44
M. Markovic
G
28
M. Ylitolva
D
6
V. Tikkanen
🟨 79'
D
3
T. Cissokho
D
13
K. Simojoki
↓ 88'
D
32
M. Gueye
⚽ 44' ↓ 80'
10
L. Lingman
🟨 80'
M
29
S. Haarala
↓ 66'
F
17
M. Kirilov
🟨 63'
M
7
A. Cicale
↓ 80'
M
20
T. Pukki
↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Ost
G
4
A. Ring
↑ 80'
M
14
L. Montano
↑ 88'
D
18
T. Mero
↑ 80'
M
5
A. Nallo
D
9
M. Borchers
↑ 66'
F
22
L. Moller
↑ 66'
M
8
P. Mentu
M
Last matches: AC Oulu
16.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
2
3
L
02.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
0
W
25.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
16.08.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
3
0
W
13.08.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Motherwell
0
2
L
06.08.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Motherwell
1
1
D
03.08.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
0
3
L
30.07.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Coleraine FC
3
0
W
26.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Coleraine FC
5
0
W
18.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
2
1
W
11.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
4
L
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
H2H: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
09.08.26
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
11.04.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
W
14.03.26
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
21.08.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
1
0
L
20.07.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
3
1
L
14.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
27.07.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
3
0
L
31.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
27.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
3
L
23.04.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
1
1
D
01.04.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
2
1
L
07.08.22
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
18.06.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
W
17.07.21
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
28.05.21
H2H
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
3
1
L
Last matches: AC Oulu
16.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
2
3
L
02.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
0
W
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H at home: AC Oulu
09.08.26
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
14.03.26
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
14.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
31.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
27.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
3
L
07.08.22
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
17.07.21
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
13.08.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Motherwell
0
2
L
03.08.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
0
3
L
30.07.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Coleraine FC
3
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
H2H away: HJK Helsinki
09.08.26
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
1
W
14.03.26
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L
14.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
4
W
31.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
L
27.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
3
W
07.08.22
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
17.07.21
H2H
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 7 1 36:18 18 43
W D W W W
2 20 10 8 2 28:16 12 38
W D W L D
3 20 10 4 6 32:23 9 34
W W L W W
4 20 9 5 6 32:26 6 32
W D L W W
5 20 8 6 6 28:21 7 30
L W L L L
6 20 9 3 8 24:25 -1 30
L L W D L
7 20 8 5 7 27:22 5 29
W D W L L
8 20 7 5 8 23:18 5 26
L D W L W
9 20 7 4 9 33:34 -1 25
L W L W W
10 20 4 6 10 24:31 -7 18
L D W L L
11 20 3 6 11 18:41 -23 15
L L L W D
12 20 1 5 14 11:41 -30 8
W L L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)