FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Raatin stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.5%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 68.5%
Draw 4.6%
Gnistan Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.42
Gnistan1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
24 GF / 21 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
28 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
9
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
9
1.64
Shots on Goal
0.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 17 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 21 matches
AC Oulu Statistic Gnistan
9 Wins 7
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 9
24 Goals For 28
21 Goals Against 30
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
9 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 6
1.64 Shots On Goal 0.86
4.93 Total Shots 2.71
2 Corners 1.07
19.9% Ball Possession 14.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gnistan. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gnistan in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

AC Oulu Analysis

Placed 4 with 26 points from 14 outings, AC Oulu continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 20:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gnistan Analysis

So far, Gnistan have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 19 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 19:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Akinyemi (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 5 times, Gnistan won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:16 from AC Oulu's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 4-2-3-1 / Gnistan 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 5, draws 1, Gnistan wins 5
Last matches: AC Oulu
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
H2H: AC Oulu vs Gnistan
04.04.26
H2H
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
W
25.08.25
H2H
Gnistan
AC Oulu
3
2
L
10.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
2
3
L
27.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
0
L
18.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
L
11.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
1
D
17.10.20
H2H
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
2
W
27.06.20
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
2
0
W
19.08.17
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
2
L
27.06.17
H2H
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
4
W
29.04.17
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
0
W
Last matches: AC Oulu
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H at home: AC Oulu
10.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
2
3
L
11.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
1
D
27.06.20
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
2
0
W
19.08.17
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
2
L
29.04.17
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
0
W
Last matches: Gnistan
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
H2H away: Gnistan
10.05.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
2
3
W
11.05.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
1
D
27.06.20
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
2
0
L
19.08.17
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
2
W
29.04.17
H2H
AC Oulu
Gnistan
1
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)