ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: M. Guida
AC Milan
Match Timeline
Cagliari
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Zé Pedro
Cagliari
2'
A. Saelemaekers · Assist: S. Gimenez
AC Milan
20'
G. Borrelli
Cagliari
🔄
46'
S. Gimenez ↔ C. Pulisic
AC Milan
🟨
56'
Strahinja Pavlović
AC Milan
57'
J. Rodriguez
Cagliari
🟨
58'
Mike Maignan
AC Milan
🔄
61'
F. Tomori ↔ Z. Athekame
AC Milan
🔄
61'
C. Nkunku ↔ N. Fullkrug
AC Milan
🔄
62'
A. Jashari ↔ L. Modric
AC Milan
🔄
62'
J. Rodriguez ↔ A. Dossena
Cagliari
🔄
63'
J. Pedro ↔ M. Palestra
Cagliari
🔄
68'
Y. Fofana ↔ R. Leao
AC Milan
🔄
74'
A. Deiola ↔ I. Sulemana
Cagliari
🔄
74'
G. Borrelli ↔ P. Mendy
Cagliari
🟨
90+6'
Sulemana
Cagliari
🔄
90+5'
S. Esposito ↔ M. Felici
Cagliari

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Milan Win 92.2%
Draw 0%
Cagliari Win 7.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.39
Cagliari1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Milan AC Milan
WWDLW
57 GF / 36 GA
Cagliari Cagliari
WLDWL
44 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.1
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
17
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
19
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Milan AC Milan 41 matches
Cagliari Cagliari 40 matches
AC Milan Statistic Cagliari
22 Wins 11
10 Draws 12
9 Losses 17
57 Goals For 44
36 Goals Against 55
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
17 BTTS Yes 21
27 Over 1.5 31
17 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 8
17 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 14
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.35
13.61 Total Shots 10.6
4.56 Corners 3.75
53.2% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AC Milan's more proactive style and Cagliari's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Milan expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Cagliari in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cagliari having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cagliari. AC Milan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 70 points compared to Cagliari in 16 on 40, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

AC Milan Analysis

AC Milan arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 70 points after 37 matches. The record of 20 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 52:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), C. Nkunku (7 goals), with creative support from C. Pulisic (4 assists), A. Rabiot (4 assists), S. Ricci (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Cagliari Analysis

Cagliari sit 16 with 40 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 38:52, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Sebastiano Esposito (7 goals), Gennaro Borrelli (4 goals), Semih Kılıçsoy (4 goals), with creative support from Sebastiano Esposito (5 assists), G. Gaetano (4 assists), M. Palestra (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan won 10 times, Cagliari won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:11 from AC Milan's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AC Milan 3-5-2 / Cagliari 5-3-2
Missing players: AC Milan 0, Cagliari 5
H2H summary: AC Milan wins 10, draws 4, Cagliari wins 1
Stats
AC Milan AC Milan
Cagliari Cagliari
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
10
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
7
5 Corner Kicks 5
8 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Goal 10
11 Shots off Goal 8
2 Blocked Shots 7
13 Shots insidebox 16
3 Shots outsidebox 9
9 Goalkeeper Saves 2
455 Total passes 487
395 Passes accurate 430
1.74 expected_goals 2.78
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

AC Milan
Formation
Cagliari
M. Maignan
M. Maignan
F. Tomori
F. Tomori
M. Gabbia
M. Gabbia
S. Pavlovic
S. Pavlovic
A. Saelemaekers
A. Saelemaekers
Y. Fofana
Y. Fofana
A. Jashari
A. Jashari
A. Rabiot
A. Rabiot
D. Bartesaghi
D. Bartesaghi
S. Gimenez
🎯
S. Gimenez
C. Nkunku
C. Nkunku
E. Caprile
E. Caprile
J. Pedro
J. Pedro
Y. Mina
Y. Mina
J. Rodriguez
J. Rodriguez
G. Zappa
G. Zappa
M. Adopo
M. Adopo
G. Gaetano
G. Gaetano
A. Deiola
A. Deiola
A. Obert
A. Obert
G. Borrelli
G. Borrelli
S. Esposito
S. Esposito
AC Milan 3-5-2
Starting XI
16
M. Maignan
🟨 58'
G
23
F. Tomori
↓ 61'
D
46
M. Gabbia
D
31
S. Pavlovic
🟨 56'
D
56
A. Saelemaekers
⚽ 2'
M
19
Y. Fofana
↓ 68'
M
30
A. Jashari
↓ 62'
M
12
A. Rabiot
M
33
D. Bartesaghi
M
7
S. Gimenez
🎯 2' ↓ 46'
F
18
C. Nkunku
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
37
M. Pittarella
G
96
L. Torriani
G
14
L. Modric
↑ 62'
M
8
R. Loftus-Cheek
M
2
P. Estupinan
D
4
S. Ricci
M
24
Z. Athekame
↑ 61'
D
34
V. Vladimirov
D
9
N. Fullkrug
↑ 61'
F
11
C. Pulisic
↑ 46'
M
10
R. Leao
↑ 68'
F
5
K. De Winter
D
27
D. Odogu
D
45
J. Sardo
M
25
C. Balentien
F
Cagliari 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
E. Caprile
G
32
J. Pedro
↓ 63' 🟨 2'
D
26
Y. Mina
D
15
J. Rodriguez
⚽ 57' ↓ 62'
D
28
G. Zappa
M
8
M. Adopo
M
10
G. Gaetano
M
14
A. Deiola
↓ 74'
M
33
A. Obert
M
29
G. Borrelli
⚽ 20' ↓ 74'
F
94
S. Esposito
↓ 90+5'
F
Substitutes
24
G. Ciocci
G
12
A. Sherri
G
19
A. Belotti
F
4
L. Mazzitelli
M
22
A. Dossena
↑ 62'
D
38
I. Sulev
M
25
I. Sulemana
↑ 74' 🟨 90+6'
M
2
M. Palestra
↑ 63'
D
36
N. Grandu
F
37
Y. Trepy
F
41
A. Russo
M
31
P. Mendy
↑ 74'
F
17
M. Felici
↑ 90+5'
F
18
O. Raterink
D
20
A. Albarracin
F
Last matches: AC Milan
17.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Sassuolo
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
0
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
0
1
L
21.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
08.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
0
1
L
18.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
1
1
D
13.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
1
W
03.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
1
0
W
15.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
3
1
W
11.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
1
1
D
08.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
1
1
D
Last matches: Cagliari
23.07.26
Fri
Cagliari
Sampdoria
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cagliari
Torino
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Cagliari
Udinese
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Cagliari
Bologna
0
0
D
27.04.26
Ser
Cagliari
Atalanta
3
2
W
17.04.26
Ser
Cagliari
Inter
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Cagliari
Cremonese
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cagliari
Sassuolo
1
2
L
20.03.26
Ser
Cagliari
Napoli
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Cagliari
Pisa
1
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Cagliari
Como
1
2
L
27.02.26
Ser
Cagliari
Parma
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Cagliari
Lazio
0
0
D
16.02.26
Ser
Cagliari
Lecce
0
2
L
09.02.26
Ser
Cagliari
AS Roma
0
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Hellas Verona
4
0
W
24.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Fiorentina
2
1
W
17.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Juventus
1
0
W
12.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Genoa
0
3
L
08.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Cremonese
2
2
D
H2H: AC Milan vs Cagliari
24.05.26
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
L
02.01.26
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
0
1
W
11.01.25
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
1
D
09.11.24
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
3
3
D
11.05.24
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
5
1
W
02.01.24
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
4
1
W
27.09.23
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
1
3
W
19.03.22
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
0
1
W
29.08.21
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
4
1
W
16.05.21
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
0
0
D
18.01.21
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
0
2
W
01.08.20
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
3
0
W
11.01.20
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
0
2
W
10.02.19
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
3
0
W
16.09.18
H2H
Cagliari
AC Milan
1
1
D
Last matches: AC Milan
10.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
0
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
08.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
22.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
0
1
L
18.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
1
0
W
08.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
1
1
D
28.12.25
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ser
AC Milan
Sassuolo
2
2
D
29.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
1
0
W
02.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
0
W
24.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
2
D
19.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
2
1
W
28.09.25
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
2
1
W
23.09.25
Cop
AC Milan
Lecce
3
0
W
14.09.25
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
1
0
W
23.08.25
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
1
2
L
17.08.25
Cop
AC Milan
Bari
2
0
W
H2H at home: AC Milan
24.05.26
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
L
11.01.25
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
1
D
11.05.24
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
5
1
W
02.01.24
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
4
1
W
29.08.21
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
4
1
W
16.05.21
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
0
0
D
01.08.20
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
3
0
W
10.02.19
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
3
0
W
Last matches: Cagliari
23.07.26
Fri
Cagliari
Sampdoria
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cagliari
Bologna
0
0
D
17.04.26
Ser
Cagliari
Inter
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Cagliari
Sassuolo
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Cagliari
Pisa
1
3
L
27.02.26
Ser
Cagliari
Parma
1
1
D
09.02.26
Ser
Cagliari
AS Roma
0
2
L
24.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Fiorentina
2
1
W
12.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Genoa
0
3
L
08.01.26
Ser
Cagliari
Cremonese
2
2
D
27.12.25
Ser
Cagliari
Torino
2
1
W
13.12.25
Ser
Cagliari
Atalanta
1
2
L
03.12.25
Cop
Cagliari
Napoli
1
1
D
29.11.25
Ser
Cagliari
Juventus
1
2
L
08.11.25
Ser
Cagliari
Como
0
0
D
03.11.25
Ser
Cagliari
Lazio
0
2
L
26.10.25
Ser
Cagliari
Hellas Verona
2
2
D
05.10.25
Ser
Cagliari
Udinese
1
1
D
19.09.25
Ser
Cagliari
Lecce
2
1
W
30.08.25
Ser
Cagliari
Napoli
0
1
L
H2H away: Cagliari
24.05.26
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
W
11.01.25
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
1
D
11.05.24
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
5
1
L
02.01.24
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
4
1
L
29.08.21
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
4
1
L
16.05.21
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
0
0
D
01.08.20
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
3
0
L
10.02.19
H2H
AC Milan
Cagliari
3
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

AC Milan 0 missing
No missing players data
Cagliari 5 missing
-
R. Idrissi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Folorunsho
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
S. Kilicsoy
Missing Fixture Personal Reasons
OUT
-
L. Pavoletti
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Liteta
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT