ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: M. Guida
AC Milan
Match Timeline
Cagliari
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Zé Pedro
Cagliari
2'
A. Saelemaekers · Assist: S. Gimenez
AC Milan
20'
G. Borrelli
Cagliari
🔄
46'
S. Gimenez ↔ C. Pulisic
AC Milan
🟨
56'
Strahinja Pavlović
AC Milan
57'
J. Rodriguez
Cagliari
🟨
58'
Mike Maignan
AC Milan
🔄
61'
F. Tomori ↔ Z. Athekame
AC Milan
🔄
61'
C. Nkunku ↔ N. Fullkrug
AC Milan
🔄
62'
A. Jashari ↔ L. Modric
AC Milan
🔄
62'
J. Rodriguez ↔ A. Dossena
Cagliari
🔄
63'
J. Pedro ↔ M. Palestra
Cagliari
🔄
68'
Y. Fofana ↔ R. Leao
AC Milan
🔄
74'
A. Deiola ↔ I. Sulemana
Cagliari
🔄
74'
G. Borrelli ↔ P. Mendy
Cagliari
🟨
90+6'
Sulemana
Cagliari
🔄
90+5'
S. Esposito ↔ M. Felici
Cagliari

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Milan Win 92.2%
Draw 0%
Cagliari Win 7.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.39
Cagliari1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Milan AC Milan
WWDLW
57 GF / 36 GA
Cagliari Cagliari
WLDWL
44 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.1
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
17
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
19
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Milan AC Milan 41 matches
Cagliari Cagliari 40 matches
AC Milan Statistic Cagliari
22 Wins 11
10 Draws 12
9 Losses 17
57 Goals For 44
36 Goals Against 55
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
17 BTTS Yes 21
27 Over 1.5 31
17 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 8
17 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 14
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.35
13.61 Total Shots 10.6
4.56 Corners 3.75
53.2% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AC Milan's more proactive style and Cagliari's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Milan expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Cagliari in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cagliari having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cagliari. AC Milan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 70 points compared to Cagliari in 16 on 40, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

AC Milan Analysis

AC Milan arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 70 points after 37 matches. The record of 20 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 52:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), C. Nkunku (7 goals), with creative support from C. Pulisic (4 assists), A. Rabiot (4 assists), S. Ricci (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Cagliari Analysis

Cagliari sit 16 with 40 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 38:52, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Sebastiano Esposito (7 goals), Gennaro Borrelli (4 goals), Semih Kılıçsoy (4 goals), with creative support from Sebastiano Esposito (5 assists), G. Gaetano (4 assists), M. Palestra (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan won 10 times, Cagliari won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:11 from AC Milan's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AC Milan 3-5-2 / Cagliari 5-3-2
Missing players: AC Milan 0, Cagliari 5
H2H summary: AC Milan wins 10, draws 4, Cagliari wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B