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ITALY › SERIE A
18.10.2026 16:00

AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
68.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AC Milan Win 48.8%
Draw 19.6%
Atalanta Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.38
Atalanta1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Milan AC Milan
WWDLW
18 GF / 15 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
7
4.43
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Milan AC Milan 11 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 12 matches
AC Milan Statistic Atalanta
4 Wins 7
5 Draws 1
2 Losses 4
18 Goals For 17
15 Goals Against 12
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
4.43 Shots On Goal 4.63
13.14 Total Shots 13
4.14 Corners 3.88
60.3% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by AC Milan's more proactive style and Atalanta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atalanta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atalanta. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AC Milan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 11 points compared to Atalanta in 11 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Milan expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Atalanta in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atalanta having the stronger overall control.

AC Milan Analysis

AC Milan approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 11 points after 5 outings. They have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a 10:4 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Diego Moreira (3 goals), Adrien Rabiot (2 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (2 goals), with creative support from Adrien Rabiot (2 assists), Samuel Chukwueze (2 assists), Gonçalo Ramos (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Atalanta Analysis

Atalanta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 6 points from 5 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:7, reflects mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Éderson (1 goals), Lazar Samardžić (1 goals), Gianluca Scamacca (1 goals), with creative support from Charles De Ketelaere (1 assists), Gianluca Gaetano (1 assists), Nicola Zalewski (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan won 4 times, Atalanta won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:25 from AC Milan's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.4%)
Predicted formations: AC Milan 3-4-2-1 / Atalanta 4-3-3
Missing players: AC Milan 0, Atalanta 2
H2H summary: AC Milan wins 4, draws 4, Atalanta wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 18:8 10 16
W D W W W
2 6 5 1 0 11:4 7 16
W W D W W
3 6 4 2 0 14:3 11 14
D D W W W
4 6 4 1 1 6:3 3 13
D W W W L
5 6 3 3 0 11:5 6 12
D W D D W
6 6 3 2 1 9:5 4 11
D W L D W
7 6 3 2 1 9:6 3 11
D L W W W
8 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
W D W L L
9 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
L W D W W
10 6 3 0 3 8:8 0 9
W L L L W
11 6 2 2 2 10:10 0 8
D L W D W
12 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
W D L W L
13 6 2 0 4 6:12 -6 6
L L W L L
14 6 1 2 3 5:7 -2 5
W D L D L
15 6 1 1 4 9:13 -4 4
L L L L W
16 6 1 1 4 9:15 -6 4
L W L D L
17 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
W L D L L
18 6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L W L D L
19 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D W L L
20 6 0 0 6 5:16 -11 0
L L L L L
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