ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: L. Zufferli
AC Milan
Match Timeline
Atalanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
Ederson
Atalanta
29'
D. Zappacosta · Assist: N. Krstovic
Atalanta
🟨
34'
Rafael Leão
AC Milan
🔄
46'
R. Loftus-Cheek ↔ C. Nkunku
AC Milan
🔄
48'
G. Scalvini ↔ O. Kossounou
Atalanta
51'
G. Raspadori · Assist: Ederson
Atalanta
🔄
55'
D. Zappacosta ↔ R. Bellanova
Atalanta
🔄
58'
K. De Winter ↔ Z. Athekame
AC Milan
🔄
58'
S. Gimenez ↔ N. Fullkrug
AC Milan
🔄
58'
R. Leao ↔ Y. Fofana
AC Milan
🔄
63'
↔ H. Ahanor
Atalanta
🔄
63'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🟨
70'
Isak Hien
Atalanta
🔄
80'
D. Bartesaghi ↔ P. Estupinan
AC Milan
88'
S. Pavlovic · Assist: S. Ricci
AC Milan
🟨
89'
Pervis Estupiñán
AC Milan
🟨
90'
Alexis Saelemaekers
AC Milan
🟨
90+6'
Raoul Bellanova
Atalanta
🟨
90+5'
Nikola Krstović
Atalanta
90'
C. Nkunku
AC Milan

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Milan Win 52%
Draw 15.3%
Atalanta Win 32.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.27
Atalanta1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Milan AC Milan
WWDLW
53 GF / 32 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
73 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.43
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
15
BTTS Yes
26
15
Over 2.5
24
4.31
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Milan AC Milan 39 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 51 matches
AC Milan Statistic Atalanta
21 Wins 21
10 Draws 16
8 Losses 14
53 Goals For 73
32 Goals Against 58
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
15 BTTS Yes 26
25 Over 1.5 39
15 Over 2.5 24
6 Over 3.5 13
17 Clean Sheets 18
9 Failed To Score 11
4.31 Shots On Goal 4.63
13.59 Total Shots 14.84
4.64 Corners 5.39
53.5% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. AC Milan have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Milan expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Atalanta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atalanta having the stronger overall control.

AC Milan Analysis

With 67 points from 35 games and a place of 3, AC Milan still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 48:29, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), A. Rabiot (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rabiot (4 assists), R. Leao (3 assists), C. Pulisic (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Atalanta Analysis

Atalanta are currently 7 in the standings with 55 points from 35 matches. The record of 14 wins, 13 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 47:32 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), N. Krstovic (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan won 4 times, Atalanta won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:25 from AC Milan's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: AC Milan 3-5-2 / Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Missing players: AC Milan 3, Atalanta 1
H2H summary: AC Milan wins 4, draws 4, Atalanta wins 7
Stats
AC Milan AC Milan
Atalanta Atalanta
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 2
8 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 2
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Goal 5
8 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 2
9 Shots insidebox 7
11 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 8
542 Total passes 408
478 Passes accurate 326
2.21 expected_goals 1.38
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

AC Milan
Formation
Atalanta
M. Maignan
M. Maignan
K. De Winter
K. De Winter
M. Gabbia
M. Gabbia
S. Pavlovic
S. Pavlovic
A. Saelemaekers
A. Saelemaekers
R. Loftus-Cheek
R. Loftus-Cheek
S. Ricci
🎯
S. Ricci
A. Rabiot
A. Rabiot
D. Bartesaghi
D. Bartesaghi
S. Gimenez
S. Gimenez
R. Leao
R. Leao
M. Carnesecchi
M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
G. Scalvini
I. Hien
I. Hien
S. Kolasinac
S. Kolasinac
D. Zappacosta
D. Zappacosta
M. De Roon
M. De Roon
Ederson
🎯
Ederson
N. Zalewski
N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
C. De Ketelaere
G. Raspadori
G. Raspadori
N. Krstovic
🎯
N. Krstovic
AC Milan 3-5-2
Starting XI
16
M. Maignan
G
5
K. De Winter
↓ 58'
D
46
M. Gabbia
D
31
S. Pavlovic
⚽ 88'
D
56
A. Saelemaekers
🟨 90'
M
8
R. Loftus-Cheek
↓ 46'
M
4
S. Ricci
🎯 88'
M
12
A. Rabiot
M
33
D. Bartesaghi
↓ 80'
M
7
S. Gimenez
↓ 58'
F
10
R. Leao
↓ 58' 🟨 34'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Terracciano
G
37
M. Pittarella
G
18
C. Nkunku
⚽ 90' ↑ 46'
F
2
P. Estupinan
↑ 80' 🟨 89'
D
24
Z. Athekame
↑ 58'
D
9
N. Fullkrug
↑ 58'
F
19
Y. Fofana
↑ 58'
M
30
A. Jashari
M
27
D. Odogu
D
Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
29
M. Carnesecchi
G
42
G. Scalvini
↓ 48'
D
4
I. Hien
🟨 70'
D
23
S. Kolasinac
D
77
D. Zappacosta
⚽ 29' ↓ 55'
M
15
M. De Roon
M
13
Ederson
⚽ 7' 🎯 51'
M
59
N. Zalewski
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
↓ 63'
F
18
G. Raspadori
⚽ 51'
F
90
N. Krstovic
🎯 29' 🟨 90+5'
F
Substitutes
57
M. Sportiello
G
31
F. Rossi
G
16
R. Bellanova
↑ 55' 🟨 90+6'
D
6
Y. Musah
M
7
K. Sulemana
F
45
D. Vavassori
F
40
R. Obric
D
69
H. Ahanor
↑ 63'
D
8
M. Pasalic
↑ 63'
M
9
G. Scamacca
F
5
M. Bakker
D
3
O. Kossounou
↑ 48'
D
10
L. Samardzic
M
Last matches: AC Milan
24.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Sassuolo
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
0
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
0
1
L
21.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
08.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
0
1
L
18.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
1
1
D
13.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
1
W
03.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
1
0
W
15.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
3
1
W
11.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
1
1
D
08.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
1
1
D
Last matches: Atalanta
22.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
H2H: AC Milan vs Atalanta
10.05.26
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
L
28.10.25
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
1
1
D
20.04.25
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
0
1
L
06.12.24
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
2
1
L
25.02.24
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
10.01.24
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
2
L
09.12.23
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
L
26.02.23
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
0
W
21.08.22
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
1
1
D
15.05.22
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
0
W
03.10.21
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
2
3
W
23.05.21
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
0
2
W
23.01.21
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
0
3
L
24.07.20
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
22.12.19
H2H
Atalanta
AC Milan
5
0
L
Last matches: AC Milan
24.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
0
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
08.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
22.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
0
1
L
18.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
1
0
W
08.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
1
1
D
28.12.25
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ser
AC Milan
Sassuolo
2
2
D
29.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
1
0
W
02.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
0
W
24.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
2
D
19.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
2
1
W
28.09.25
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
2
1
W
23.09.25
Cop
AC Milan
Lecce
3
0
W
14.09.25
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
1
0
W
23.08.25
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
1
2
L
17.08.25
Cop
AC Milan
Bari
2
0
W
H2H at home: AC Milan
10.05.26
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
L
20.04.25
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
0
1
L
25.02.24
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
10.01.24
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
2
L
26.02.23
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
0
W
15.05.22
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
0
W
23.01.21
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
0
3
L
24.07.20
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
Last matches: Atalanta
22.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
01.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Como
0
0
D
28.01.26
UEF
Atalanta
Union St. Gilloise
0
1
L
16.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Pisa
1
1
D
07.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
2
0
W
21.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
1
0
W
06.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
3
L
26.11.25
UEF
Atalanta
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
0
W
22.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
1
3
L
05.11.25
UEF
Atalanta
Marseille
1
0
W
01.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
0
1
L
H2H away: Atalanta
10.05.26
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
W
20.04.25
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
0
1
W
25.02.24
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
10.01.24
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
2
W
26.02.23
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
0
L
15.05.22
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
0
L
23.01.21
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
0
3
W
24.07.20
H2H
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

AC Milan 3 missing
-
L. Modric
Missing Fixture Broken cheekbone
OUT
-
F. Tomori
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
C. Pulisic
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Atalanta 1 missing
-
L. Bernasconi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT