ITALY › SERIE A
10.05.2026 18:45
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: L. Zufferli
AC Milan
Match Timeline
Atalanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Ederson
Atalanta
⚽
29'
D. Zappacosta · Assist: N. Krstovic
Atalanta
🟨
34'
Rafael Leão
AC Milan
🔄
46'
R. Loftus-Cheek ↔ C. Nkunku
AC Milan
🔄
48'
G. Scalvini ↔ O. Kossounou
Atalanta
⚽
51'
G. Raspadori · Assist: Ederson
Atalanta
🔄
55'
D. Zappacosta ↔ R. Bellanova
Atalanta
🔄
58'
K. De Winter ↔ Z. Athekame
AC Milan
🔄
58'
S. Gimenez ↔ N. Fullkrug
AC Milan
🔄
58'
R. Leao ↔ Y. Fofana
AC Milan
🔄
63'
↔ H. Ahanor
Atalanta
🔄
63'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🟨
70'
Isak Hien
Atalanta
🔄
80'
D. Bartesaghi ↔ P. Estupinan
AC Milan
⚽
88'
S. Pavlovic · Assist: S. Ricci
AC Milan
🟨
89'
Pervis Estupiñán
AC Milan
🟨
90'
Alexis Saelemaekers
AC Milan
🟨
90+6'
Raoul Bellanova
Atalanta
🟨
90+5'
Nikola Krstović
Atalanta
⚽
90'
C. Nkunku
AC Milan

AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AC Milan Win 52%
Draw 15.3%
Atalanta Win 32.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.27
Atalanta1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Milan AC Milan
WWDLW
53 GF / 32 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
73 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.43
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
15
BTTS Yes
26
15
Over 2.5
24
4.31
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Milan AC Milan 39 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 51 matches
AC Milan Statistic Atalanta
21 Wins 21
10 Draws 16
8 Losses 14
53 Goals For 73
32 Goals Against 58
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
15 BTTS Yes 26
25 Over 1.5 39
15 Over 2.5 24
6 Over 3.5 13
17 Clean Sheets 18
9 Failed To Score 11
4.31 Shots On Goal 4.63
13.59 Total Shots 14.84
4.64 Corners 5.39
53.5% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. AC Milan have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Milan expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Atalanta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atalanta having the stronger overall control.

AC Milan Analysis

With 67 points from 35 games and a place of 3, AC Milan still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 48:29, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), A. Rabiot (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rabiot (4 assists), R. Leao (3 assists), C. Pulisic (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Atalanta Analysis

Atalanta are currently 7 in the standings with 55 points from 35 matches. The record of 14 wins, 13 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 47:32 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), N. Krstovic (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan won 4 times, Atalanta won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:25 from AC Milan's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: AC Milan 3-5-2 / Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Missing players: AC Milan 3, Atalanta 1
H2H summary: AC Milan wins 4, draws 4, Atalanta wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B