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11.10.2026 13:00
Pittodrie Stadium
Referee: R. Lee
Aberdeen
Match Timeline
ST Johnstone
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
11'
Josh Fowler
ST Johnstone
⚽
14'
Josh Fowler
ST Johnstone
🔄
35'
Ayoub Mouloua ↔ Lewis Smith
Aberdeen
🔄
58'
Ruari Paton ↔ Joel Cotterill
ST Johnstone
🔄
59'
Findlay Marshall ↔ Tony Yogane
Aberdeen
🔄
59'
Connor Ronan ↔ Stuart Armstrong
Aberdeen
🔄
67'
Matty Todd ↔ Taylor Steven
ST Johnstone
🔄
68'
Nesta Guinness-Walker ↔ Hicham Mahou
Aberdeen
🔄
78'
Josh Fowler ↔ Jamie Gullan
ST Johnstone
🔄
78'
Sam Stanton ↔ Josh Campbell
ST Johnstone
🟨
90'
Marius Müller
Aberdeen
🔄
90'
Chris Cadden ↔ Aremu Afeez
Aberdeen
🔄
90'
Danny Finlayson ↔ Božo Mikulić
ST Johnstone

Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aberdeen Win 27.6%
Draw 14.5%
ST Johnstone Win 57.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aberdeen1.33
ST Johnstone1.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aberdeen Aberdeen
W D W D L
9 GF / 5 GA
ST Johnstone ST Johnstone
D L W D L
5 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
2
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
4
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
6
2.57
Shots on Goal
3.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aberdeen Aberdeen 12 matches
ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 10 matches
Aberdeen Statistic ST Johnstone
5 Wins 5
2 Draws 2
5 Losses 3
17 Goals For 20
16 Goals Against 12
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
4 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
2.57 Shots On Goal 3.71
9.86 Total Shots 10.57
5.14 Corners 3.43
45.1% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aberdeen expected to line up in 3-5-2 and ST Johnstone in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward ST Johnstone having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors ST Johnstone. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Aberdeen Analysis

Aberdeen are currently 7 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Nisbet (4 goals), C. Ronan (1 goals), G. Molloy (1 goals), with creative support from K. Nisbet (1 assists), C. Ronan (1 assists), G. Molloy (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

ST Johnstone Analysis

ST Johnstone are currently 6 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 9:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Fowler (4 goals), C. Diabate (1 goals), E. Alıç (1 goals), with creative support from J. Gullan (2 assists), J. Fowler (1 assists), S. Stanton (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aberdeen won 6 times, ST Johnstone won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from Aberdeen's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Aberdeen 3-5-2 / ST Johnstone 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Aberdeen wins 6, draws 6, ST Johnstone wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 0 1 25:6 19 27
W W W L W
2 10 7 2 1 17:7 10 23
W D W W W
3 10 6 1 3 22:15 7 19
W L W D L
4 10 4 3 3 14:14 0 15
W D W W D
5 10 4 2 4 14:12 2 14
L D W W L
6 10 4 1 5 11:18 -7 13
W L L L L
7 10 3 3 4 12:12 0 12
W W L D W
8 10 3 3 4 11:15 -4 12
L D W D L
9 10 3 2 5 12:13 -1 11
L W L D W
10 10 2 2 6 11:18 -7 8
L L L L L
11 10 2 2 6 10:23 -13 8
L W L D W
12 10 2 1 7 10:16 -6 7
L L L D L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)