Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
100%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
78.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
69.6%
|
- |
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Aberdeen
41 matches
Kilmarnock
33 matches
| Aberdeen | Statistic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 6 |
| 9 | Draws | 10 |
| 23 | Losses | 17 |
| 38 | Goals For | 37 |
| 67 | Goals Against | 65 |
| 0.93 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.12 |
| 1.63 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.97 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 19 |
| 30 | Over 1.5 | 28 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 21 |
| 10 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 20 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.39 | Shots On Goal | 3.73 |
| 11.29 | Total Shots | 11.09 |
| 4.54 | Corners | 4.36 |
| 45.9% | Ball Possession | 41.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aberdeen expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Kilmarnock in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kilmarnock having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Kilmarnock. Aberdeen have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Aberdeen sit 2 with 33 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 33:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Kevin Nisbet (9 goals), J. Karlsson (5 goals), Marko Lazetić (4 goals), with creative support from Stuart Armstrong (4 assists), Topi Keskinen (3 assists), Kevin Nisbet (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Kilmarnock arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 28 points after 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, while the 37:65 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tyreece John-Jules (8 goals), Bruce Anderson (4 goals), G. Kiltie (4 goals), with creative support from G. Kiltie (4 assists), Tyreece John-Jules (2 assists), Bruce Anderson (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aberdeen won 9 times, Kilmarnock won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Aberdeen's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 58:28 | 30 | 70 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 33 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 66:31 | 35 | 69 |
W
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 3 | 33 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 59:35 | 24 | 67 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 52:29 | 23 | 54 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 51:37 | 14 | 51 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 6 | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 45:48 | -3 | 46 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 40 |
D
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 8 |
Aberdeen
Home
|
33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 33:48 | -15 | 33 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
| 9 | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 34:53 | -19 | 33 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27:48 | -21 | 30 |
W
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 11 |
Kilmarnock
Away
|
33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 37:65 | -28 | 28 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
| 12 | 33 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 35:66 | -31 | 16 |
L
D
L
D
W
|