SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Pittodrie Stadium
Referee: N. Walsh
Aberdeen
Match Timeline
Kilmarnock
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
A. Afeez · Assist: S. Armstrong
Aberdeen
🔄
5'
J. Brandon ↔ D. Thompson
Kilmarnock
🔄
58'
M. Frame ↔ G. Shinnie
Aberdeen
🔄
59'
L. Cameron ↔ D. Geiger
Aberdeen
🟨
64'
George Stanger
Kilmarnock
🟨
66'
Tom Lowery
Kilmarnock
🔄
68'
M. Schjonning-Larsen ↔ R. McKenzie
Kilmarnock
🔄
71'
A. Afeez ↔ A. Palaversa
Aberdeen
🔄
72'
S. Armstrong ↔ M. Knoester
Aberdeen
🔄
77'
G. Kiltie ↔ K. Magennis
Kilmarnock
🔄
77'
N. Clescenco ↔ B. Anderson
Kilmarnock
🟨
78'
Robbie Deas
Kilmarnock
🔄
81'
J. Milne ↔ E. Bwomono
Aberdeen
🔄
84'
F. Curtis ↔ B. Lyons
Kilmarnock
🔄
84'
T. Lowery ↔ D. Watson
Kilmarnock
🔄
88'
T. Olusanya ↔ T. Keskinen
Aberdeen
🟨
90'
Liam Morrison
Aberdeen
🟨
90+1'
Kyle Magennis
Kilmarnock

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Aberdeen Win 100%
Draw 0%
Kilmarnock Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aberdeen1.35
Kilmarnock1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aberdeen Aberdeen
WWDLW
38 GF / 67 GA
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
WLDWL
37 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.97
15
BTTS Yes
19
16
Over 2.5
21
3.39
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aberdeen Aberdeen 41 matches
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 33 matches
Aberdeen Statistic Kilmarnock
9 Wins 6
9 Draws 10
23 Losses 17
38 Goals For 37
67 Goals Against 65
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.97
15 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 21
10 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 7
20 Failed To Score 9
3.39 Shots On Goal 3.73
11.29 Total Shots 11.09
4.54 Corners 4.36
45.9% Ball Possession 41.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aberdeen expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Kilmarnock in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kilmarnock having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Kilmarnock. Aberdeen have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Aberdeen Analysis

Aberdeen sit 2 with 33 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 33:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Kevin Nisbet (9 goals), J. Karlsson (5 goals), Marko Lazetić (4 goals), with creative support from Stuart Armstrong (4 assists), Topi Keskinen (3 assists), Kevin Nisbet (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kilmarnock Analysis

Kilmarnock arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 28 points after 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, while the 37:65 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tyreece John-Jules (8 goals), Bruce Anderson (4 goals), G. Kiltie (4 goals), with creative support from G. Kiltie (4 assists), Tyreece John-Jules (2 assists), Bruce Anderson (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aberdeen won 9 times, Kilmarnock won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Aberdeen's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Aberdeen 3-5-2 / Kilmarnock 4-4-2
H2H summary: Aberdeen wins 9, draws 0, Kilmarnock wins 6
Stats
Aberdeen Aberdeen
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
6 Corner Kicks 5
16 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 3
6 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
302 Total passes 428
206 Passes accurate 321
0.47 expected_goals 0.54
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Aberdeen
Formation
Kilmarnock
D. Mitov
D. Mitov
J. Milne
J. Milne
L. Morrison
L. Morrison
G. Molloy
G. Molloy
A. Jensen
A. Jensen
A. Afeez
A. Afeez
S. Armstrong
🎯
S. Armstrong
M. Frame
M. Frame
L. Cameron
L. Cameron
T. Olusanya
T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
K. Nisbet
M. Stryjek
M. Stryjek
J. Brandon
J. Brandon
G. Stanger
G. Stanger
R. Deas
R. Deas
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Schjonning-Larsen
F. Curtis
F. Curtis
T. Lowery
T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
G. Kiltie
G. Kiltie
N. Clescenco
N. Clescenco
J. Hugill
J. Hugill
Aberdeen 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
D. Mitov
G
22
J. Milne
↓ 81'
D
23
L. Morrison
🟨 90'
D
21
G. Molloy
D
28
A. Jensen
M
32
A. Afeez
⚽ 1' ↓ 71'
M
16
S. Armstrong
🎯 1' ↓ 72'
M
3
M. Frame
↓ 58'
M
25
L. Cameron
↓ 59'
F
20
T. Olusanya
↓ 88'
F
15
K. Nisbet
F
Substitutes
99
P. Bratveit
G
18
A. Palaversa
↑ 71'
M
38
D. Lobban
M
4
G. Shinnie
↑ 58'
M
5
M. Knoester
↑ 72'
D
8
D. Geiger
↑ 59'
M
42
E. Bwomono
↑ 81'
D
27
M. Lazetic
F
81
T. Keskinen
↑ 88'
F
Kilmarnock 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
M. Stryjek
G
2
J. Brandon
↓ 5'
D
14
G. Stanger
🟨 64'
D
6
R. Deas
🟨 78'
D
21
M. Schjonning-Larsen
↓ 68'
D
52
F. Curtis
↓ 84'
M
18
T. Lowery
↓ 84' 🟨 66'
M
36
A. Tshibola
M
11
G. Kiltie
↓ 77'
M
20
N. Clescenco
↓ 77'
F
44
J. Hugill
F
Substitutes
13
K. Roos
G
7
R. McKenzie
↑ 68'
M
8
B. Lyons
↑ 84'
M
3
D. Thompson
↑ 5'
D
16
K. Magennis
↑ 77' 🟨 90+1'
M
19
B. Anderson
↑ 77'
F
5
L. Mayo
D
4
Z. Williams
D
12
D. Watson
↑ 84'
M
Last matches: Aberdeen
11.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Linfield
2
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Ross County
3
6
L
04.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Twente
0
1
L
27.06.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Cove Rangers
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
01.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
1
4
L
14.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Celtic
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
24.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
15.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
6
2
W
11.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
H2H: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
25.04.26
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
31.01.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
L
14.12.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
29.10.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
W
22.02.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
26.12.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
4
0
L
25.08.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
3
1
W
24.02.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
2
0
L
06.12.23
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
1
L
29.10.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
2
0
L
08.04.23
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
0
W
28.12.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
2
1
L
01.10.22
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
4
1
W
20.02.21
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
Last matches: Aberdeen
07.07.26
Fri
Aberdeen
Ross County
3
6
L
12.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Celtic
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
6
2
W
11.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
14.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
Aberdeen
Strasbourg
0
1
L
03.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
3
3
D
27.11.25
UEF
Aberdeen
FC Noah
1
1
D
23.11.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
1
2
L
05.10.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
4
0
W
02.10.25
UEF
Aberdeen
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
3
L
13.09.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
0
0
D
H2H at home: Aberdeen
25.04.26
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
14.12.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
22.02.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
25.08.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
3
1
W
06.12.23
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
1
L
08.04.23
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
0
W
01.10.22
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
4
1
W
20.02.21
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
1
2
L
03.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
3
L
26.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
3
L
27.09.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
30.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
2
2
D
10.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
2
2
D
H2H away: Kilmarnock
25.04.26
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
L
14.12.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
1
L
22.02.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
L
25.08.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
0
L
09.03.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
3
1
L
06.12.23
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
1
W
08.04.23
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
2
0
L
01.10.22
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
4
1
L
20.02.21
H2H
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
L

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round