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NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
11.10.2026 15:00
Color Line Stadion
Referee: Svein Tore Sinnes
Aalesund
Match Timeline
Sarpsborg 08 FF
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Eirik Wichne · Assist: Sander Johan Christiansen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
9'
Bjorn Utvik
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
40'
Sigurd Rosted
Sarpsborg 08 FF
⚽
51'
Sondre Sorlie · Assist: Noa Williams
Sarpsborg 08 FF
⚽
54'
Noa Williams
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
62'
Isak Gabriel Skotheim ↔ Elias Heggland Myrlid
Aalesund
🔄
62'
Endre Osenbroch ↔ Sander Erik Kartum
Aalesund
⚽
65'
Olaus Jair Skarsem
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
68'
Mbacke Diop ↔ Philip Sandvik Aukland
Aalesund
⚽
70'
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen · Assist: Marcus Reed
Aalesund
🔄
71'
Sigurd Rosted ↔ Marius Lode
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
71'
Olaus Jair Skarsem ↔ Aimar Sher
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
72'
Andreas Hansen ↔ Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
⚽
74'
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen · Assist: Marcus Reed
Aalesund
🔄
78'
Eirik Wichne ↔ Anders Hiim
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
78'
Noa Williams ↔ Claus Babo Niyukuri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
80'
Ólafur Gudmundsson
Aalesund
🔄
83'
Marcus Reed ↔ Paul Ngongo
Aalesund
🔄
83'
Philip Sandvik Aukland ↔ Jakob Nyland Örsahl
Aalesund

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.46
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
61.1%
1.44 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.40 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.46 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
3.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Aalesund Win 41.9%
Draw 19.2%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 38.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aalesund1.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aalesund Aalesund
WWDLW
50 GF / 59 GA
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WLDWL
46 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.72
Average Goals Scored
1.44
2.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
22
BTTS Yes
19
19
Over 2.5
19
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aalesund Aalesund 29 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 32 matches
Aalesund Statistic Sarpsborg 08 FF
8 Wins 13
9 Draws 8
12 Losses 11
50 Goals For 46
59 Goals Against 45
1.72 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
2.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
22 BTTS Yes 19
27 Over 1.5 25
19 Over 2.5 19
13 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 9
3 Failed To Score 6
5.1 Shots On Goal 4.38
15.62 Total Shots 12.9
5.05 Corners 5.19
43.7% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aalesund expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Sarpsborg 08 FF in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarpsborg 08 FF having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sarpsborg 08 FF. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 21 points from 21 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 33:46 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Christensen (8 goals), E. Osenbroch (5 goals), K. Lonebu (5 goals), with creative support from E. Osenbroch (4 assists), U. Charles (4 assists), M. Christensen (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9 with 25 points after 21 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 24:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Karlsbakk (6 goals), S. Sørli (3 goals), A. Nibe (3 goals), with creative support from S. Sørli (4 assists), C. Niyukuri (4 assists), S. Christiansen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Aalesund won 2 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Aalesund's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.1 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.8%)
Predicted formations: Aalesund 5-3-2 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
Missing players: Aalesund 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF 2
H2H summary: Aalesund wins 2, draws 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 7

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W W W D W
2 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W L W W W
3 22 11 6 5 41:30 11 39
D W L L D
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 22 10 4 8 40:31 9 34
D W W W L
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 22 9 2 11 39:34 5 29
L W L L D
8 22 8 5 9 26:33 -7 29
D D D L W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 22 6 6 10 22:28 -6 24
D W L D D
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 22 5 4 13 22:43 -21 19
L L L W D
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen