CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
A. Italiano Win 46%
Draw 24.7%
D. La Serena Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
A. Italiano1.45
D. La Serena1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WWDLW
17 GF / 20 GA
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WLDWL
22 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
5
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
9
3
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

A. Italiano A. Italiano 14 matches
D. La Serena D. La Serena 15 matches
A. Italiano Statistic D. La Serena
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
7 Losses 6
17 Goals For 22
20 Goals Against 27
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
5 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
3 Shots On Goal 3.93
11.14 Total Shots 10.14
3.86 Corners 4.21
51.2% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with A. Italiano expected to line up in 4-3-3 and D. La Serena in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward D. La Serena having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward D. La Serena.

A. Italiano Analysis

From their first 14 matches, A. Italiano have collected 15 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 17:20 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by F. Troyansky (3 goals), G. Chiaverano (3 goals), D. Coelho (2 goals), with creative support from E. Matus (3 assists), N. Aedo (2 assists), G. Chiaverano (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

D. La Serena Analysis

From their first 14 matches, D. La Serena have collected 17 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 20:24 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Chamorro (5 goals), J. Vargas (5 goals), Diego Rubio (3 goals), with creative support from J. Vargas (4 assists), Diego Rubio (3 assists), A. Henriquez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, A. Italiano won 8 times, D. La Serena won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:11 from A. Italiano's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.3%)
Predicted formations: A. Italiano 4-3-3 / D. La Serena 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: A. Italiano wins 8, draws 0, D. La Serena wins 2
Last matches: A. Italiano
01.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Palestino
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
03.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
06.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
W
30.01.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
0
0
D
Last matches: D. La Serena
30.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
2
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
4
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
26.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Huachipato
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
11.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Union La Calera
3
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
H2H: A. Italiano vs D. La Serena
09.05.26
H2H
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
2
4
W
25.03.26
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
3
1
W
25.10.25
H2H
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
2
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
W
06.11.22
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
3
0
W
28.05.22
H2H
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
3
2
L
26.08.21
H2H
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
0
2
W
30.03.21
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
W
14.02.21
H2H
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
0
2
W
10.09.20
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
W
Last matches: A. Italiano
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
W
H2H at home: A. Italiano
25.03.26
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
3
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
W
06.11.22
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
3
0
W
30.03.21
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
W
10.09.20
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
W
Last matches: D. La Serena
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
19.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Concepción
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
H2H away: D. La Serena
25.03.26
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
3
1
L
04.05.25
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
L
06.11.22
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
3
0
L
30.03.21
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
L
10.09.20
H2H
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 11 0 3 26:12 14 33
?
2 14 7 2 5 30:19 11 23
?
3 14 7 2 5 22:18 4 23
?
4 14 6 4 4 18:13 5 22
?
5 14 7 1 6 21:20 1 22
?
6 14 6 3 5 28:20 8 21
?
7 14 6 3 5 21:20 1 21
?
8 14 5 6 3 16:17 -1 21
?
9 13 5 5 3 13:8 5 20
?
10 13 6 1 6 19:20 -1 19
?
11 14 5 4 5 12:21 -9 19
?
12 14 4 5 5 20:24 -4 17
?
13 14 4 3 7 17:20 -3 15
?
14 14 4 1 9 19:26 -7 13
?
15 14 3 2 9 11:21 -10 11
?
16 14 3 2 9 12:26 -14 11
?