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BRAZIL › SERIE B
08.10.2026 22:30
Estadio Castelão
Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho
Ceara
Match Timeline
Criciuma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
Marcelo Hermes
Criciuma
🟨
48'
Rodrigo Fagundes
Criciuma
🔄
54'
Rómulo Otero ↔ Romarinho
Criciuma
🔄
63'
Enzo Lodovico ↔ Rian Santana
Ceara
🔄
63'
Renzo López ↔ Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli
Ceara
🟨
67'
Ronald
Criciuma
🔄
68'
Yuri Jonathan ↔ Caue
Criciuma
🔄
69'
Fellipe Mateus ↔ Willean Bernardo
Criciuma
🔄
75'
Ronald ↔ Eduardo Biasi
Criciuma
🔄
75'
Jhonata Robert Alves da Silva ↔ João Carlos Barros Lopes
Criciuma
🟨
78'
Vinícius
Ceara
🔄
78'
Vinícius ↔ Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares
Ceara
🔄
78'
Julio Cesar ↔ Rafael Ramos
Ceara
🔄
84'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Lucas Mugni
Ceara
⚽
88'
Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli · Assist: Vinicius Zanocelo
Ceara

Ceara vs Criciuma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds 2.61
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.6%
Odds 2.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.1%
2.61 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.6%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.6%
2.39 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 59.1%
Draw 8.3%
Criciuma Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1.01
Criciuma1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
34 GF / 39 GA
Criciuma Criciuma
WLDWL
33 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
17
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
7
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 31 matches
Criciuma Criciuma 31 matches
Ceara Statistic Criciuma
10 Wins 15
9 Draws 8
12 Losses 8
34 Goals For 33
39 Goals Against 27
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
17 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 20
12 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 14
10 Failed To Score 8
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.77
13.58 Total Shots 13.84
5.61 Corners 6.65
50.9% Ball Possession 53.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Criciuma's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Criciuma. Criciuma carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 53 points while Ceara sit 15 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Criciuma arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ceara expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Criciuma in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Criciuma having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 15 with 39 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 34:39, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lucas Lima (4 goals), Melk (4 goals), Richard (4 goals), with creative support from Lucas Lima (3 assists), Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Criciuma Analysis

Criciuma approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 53 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 15 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 33:27 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Fellipe Mateus (4 goals), Willean Lepo (3 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (4 assists), Romarinho (3 assists), Willean Lepo (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 5 times, Criciuma won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:14 from Ceara's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-2-3-1 / Criciuma 4-3-3
H2H summary: Ceara wins 5, draws 4, Criciuma wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
4 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
5 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15
Ceara Home
31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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