GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
25.04.2026 13:30
Voith-Arena
Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany
1. FC Heidenheim
Match Timeline
FC St. Pauli
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
B. Zivzivadze · Assist: J. Schoppner
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
46'
M. Rasmussen ↔ E. Smith
FC St. Pauli
🔄
46'
J. Fujita ↔ M. Kaars
FC St. Pauli
🔄
56'
A. Beck ↔ L. Kerber
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
63'
M. Saliakas ↔ L. Ritzka
FC St. Pauli
🔄
64'
A. Hountondji ↔ A. Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🟨
76'
Martijn Kaars
FC St. Pauli
82'
E. Dinkci · Assist: D. Ramaj
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
85'
N. Dorsch ↔ J. Niehues
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
88'
D. Sinani ↔ C. Metcalfe
FC St. Pauli
🔄
90+1'
M. Pieringer ↔ S. Schimmer
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
90+1'
B. Zivzivadze ↔ C. Conteh
1. FC Heidenheim
🔄
90+1'
E. Dinkci ↔ A. Ibrahimovic
1. FC Heidenheim

1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
71.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.4%
-
Probability Distribution
1. FC Heidenheim Win 41.8%
Draw 14.4%
FC St. Pauli Win 43.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
1. FC Heidenheim1.34
FC St. Pauli1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim
WWDLW
33 GF / 66 GA
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
WLDWL
26 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.87
2.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
19
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
16
3.43
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 30 matches
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 30 matches
1. FC Heidenheim Statistic FC St. Pauli
4 Wins 6
7 Draws 8
19 Losses 16
33 Goals For 26
66 Goals Against 51
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
2.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
19 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 16
12 Over 3.5 6
0 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 12
3.43 Shots On Goal 3.47
11.27 Total Shots 10.3
4.43 Corners 4.5
42.7% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. 1. FC Heidenheim appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward FC St. Pauli. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with 1. FC Heidenheim expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FC St. Pauli in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC St. Pauli having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward FC St. Pauli. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. FC St. Pauli arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

1. FC Heidenheim Analysis

1. FC Heidenheim approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 19 points from 30 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 32:64 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Schimmer (5 goals), M. Pieringer (4 goals), Budu Zivzivadze (3 goals), with creative support from Marnon Busch (3 assists), P. Mainka (2 assists), Arijon Ibrahimović (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with L. Paqarada, M. Kaufmann, S. Conteh unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

With 26 points from 30 games and a place of 16, FC St. Pauli still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 25:50 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Sinani (5 goals), A. Hountondji (4 goals), M. Kaars (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sinani (3 assists), J. Fujita (3 assists), M. Saliakas (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with R. Jones, J. Sands, M. Pereira Lage unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim won 5 times, FC St. Pauli won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:20 from 1. FC Heidenheim's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: 1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2 / FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
Missing players: 1. FC Heidenheim 6, FC St. Pauli 3
H2H summary: 1. FC Heidenheim wins 5, draws 3, FC St. Pauli wins 7

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation