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Could City Finish Outside the Top Four?

Published 21 Jan 2025

Could City Finish Outside the Top Four?
In recent months, English Premier League side Manchester City have slipped down into sixth place in the league, with many blaming key players that have been missing through illness or injury, such as Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne, Manuel Akanji, Jack Grealish, and Kyle Walker, to name a few.      Most of their issues have been in defence; they don’t seem to be struggling up front. However, there are just 17 games to go before the end of the season, and if they want to secure European football next season, they must finish in the top four.  The question being asked here is, could Manchester City finish outside of the top four? Let’s dive straight in to find out. 

Can Manchester City finish in the top four?

To find out if EPL side Manchester City can finish in the top four by the end of the current 2024/25 campaign, the best thing to do would be to closely examine the latest sports betting odds for this particular outcome.  For example, right now, on trusted sites like the official 10bet.co.za online sports betting and casino website – South Africa’s number one iGaming brand, you are looking at average odds of around 11/20 (fractional), 1.55 (decimal) and -182 (American/moneyline) for Manchester City to finish in the top four at the end of the season.  In other words, there’s a 64.50% chance (implied probability rate) that they will secure a top-four spot and a 35.50% chance they won’t. They are currently priced at around 25/1 (26.00 or +2,500) to win the Premier League outright, meaning they have a 3.80% IPR (implied probability rate) of actually achieving this.  To finish in the top 2, you’re looking at around 5/1 (6.00 or +500 with a 16.70% IPR). They are currently priced at around 11/50 (1.22 or -455, with a whopping 82.00% IPR) to finish in the top 6 and at around 1/10 (1.10 or -1,000 with a 90.90% IPR) to finish in the top 10.  In other words, despite the current panic at the club, it’s still highly likely that Manchester City will finish in the top 4 by the end of the season. 

Can Manchester City still win the treble?

Winning the treble means winning three major trophies in one season. They are still in the FA Cup and the UEFA Champions League, meaning they could still potentially achieve the almost impossible and win the treble again, just like they did in 2022/23.  However, the chances of them actually winning all three competitions is as low as 0.2%. When you look at it in odds, it works out to 500/1 in fractional odds, 501.00 in decimal odds, and +50,000 in American/moneyline odds.  In other words, it’s not looking likely at all. A likelier bet would be for rivals Liverpool to win the treble this year. They are currently priced at around 25/1 (26.00 or +2,500), meaning there’s a 3.80% implied probability rate that Liverpool will win the treble.  Manchester City are currently 12 points behind Liverpool in the league, and the Reds also have one game in hand, so it is almost impossible at this stage for Manchester City to win the league. 

Upcoming Manchester City fixtures

Their next game is the seventh of eight UEFA Champions League matches on Wednesday, January 22, when they travel away to play Paris Saint-Germain (PSG).  When they return for league duties on January 25, they host London side Chelsea, who are currently one spot above them. Their final qualifying stage match in the Champions League is against Club Brugge (at home) on Wednesday, January 29.  Other upcoming fixtures for Manchester City are against Arsenal (league), Leyton Orient (FA Cup), Newcastle United (league), and Liverpool (league), meaning they have some tough fixtures ahead in the league and must win all of their games to secure a top 4 finish. 

Final thoughts

If Manchester City players keep picking up injuries or suffering from various illnesses and miss these key fixtures, there’s a chance they could end up finishing outside of the top 4. It will be interesting to see how they do over the coming weeks, and many optimistic Man City fans believe they can finish in the top 4.  If you decide to place a wager on this particular market, remember to stick to betting on legally permitted SA sportsbooks, such as the official 10bet online sports betting and casino site, which is fully licensed and regulated by the Mpumalanga Economic Regulator.  Finally, remember to gamble responsibly at all times, and consider setting yourself a reasonable spending budget before logging in to place bets. 
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