UKRAINE › PREMIER LEAGUE
18.05.2026 10:00
Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho
Referee: V. Kopiyevsky
Zorya Luhansk
Match Timeline
Polessya
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
Gabriel Eskinja
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
31'
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
58'
M. Bragaru ↔ O. Filippov
Polessya
🔄
58'
L. Emerllahu ↔ M. Gayduchyk
Polessya
🔄
69'
D. Jelavic ↔ N. Malysh
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
69'
B. Kushnirenko ↔ J. Basic
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
77'
Ruslan Babenko
Polessya
🔄
78'
P. Micin ↔ K. Dryshlyuk
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
83'
O. Nazarenko ↔ V. Veleten
Polessya
🔄
84'
A. Slesar ↔ R. Verley
Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
53.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
90.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Zorya Luhansk Win 28.6%
Draw 13.1%
Polessya Win 58.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zorya Luhansk1.23
Polessya1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
WWDLW
40 GF / 35 GA
Polessya Polessya
WLDWL
60 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
17
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
18
2.68
Shots on Goal
3.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 28 matches
Polessya Polessya 34 matches
Zorya Luhansk Statistic Polessya
11 Wins 19
9 Draws 4
8 Losses 11
40 Goals For 60
35 Goals Against 32
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
17 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 26
15 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 16
6 Failed To Score 8
2.68 Shots On Goal 3.84
7.48 Total Shots 10.48
3.24 Corners 3.81
31.4% Ball Possession 37.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Polessya. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zorya Luhansk expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Polessya in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Polessya having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Zorya Luhansk Analysis

Zorya Luhansk are currently 8 in the standings with 42 points from 28 matches. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 40:35 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Budkivsky (12 goals), N. Andjusic (7 goals), Roman Vantukh (4 goals), with creative support from A. Slesar (4 assists), Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior (4 assists), N. Andjusic (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Polessya Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 55 points from 28 games, Polessya bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 17 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 49:21, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Gayduchyk (9 goals), O. Gutsulyak (8 goals), Eduard Sarapiyy (5 goals), with creative support from O. Gutsulyak (6 assists), O. Nazarenko (2 assists), Oleksandr Andriyevskyi (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 10 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Zorya Luhansk won 2 times, Polessya won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from Zorya Luhansk's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: Zorya Luhansk 4-4-2 / Polessya 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Zorya Luhansk wins 2, draws 3, Polessya wins 3

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga