IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
04.05.2026 16:00
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: D. Murphy
Waterford
Match Timeline
Dundalk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
D. Horgan · Assist: E. Kenny
Dundalk
🟨
28'
Ronan Mansfield
Waterford
35'
G. Arubi
Dundalk
🟨
37'
Mayowa Animasahun
Dundalk
40'
T. Lonergan · Assist: J. Houston
Waterford
🟨
45+1'
John Mahon
Waterford
🔄
57'
H. Groome ↔ R. Teahan
Dundalk
🔄
57'
S. Tracey ↔ A. Dervin
Dundalk
🔄
58'
B. Couto ↔ J. Faria
Waterford
60'
P. Amond · Assist: D. McMenamy
Waterford
🟨
62'
Evan McLaughlin
Waterford
🔄
66'
M. Animasahun ↔ H. Warren
Dundalk
🔄
72'
C. Noonan ↔ S. Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
78'
B. Burns ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
83'
D. Horgan · Assist: E. Kenny
Dundalk
🔄
87'
D. McMenamy ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
🔄
87'
J. Houston ↔ W. Johnson
Waterford
88'
J. Mahon · Assist: E. McLaughlin
Waterford

Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.1%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 31.4%
Draw 13.9%
Dundalk Win 54.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.24
Dundalk1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
22 GF / 35 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
29 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
11
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
10
2.85
Shots on Goal
6.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 20 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 16 matches
Waterford Statistic Dundalk
5 Wins 6
5 Draws 6
10 Losses 4
22 Goals For 29
35 Goals Against 23
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
11 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 2
2.85 Shots On Goal 6.43
11.23 Total Shots 16.5
4.92 Corners 6.43
40.8% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Dundalk's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Dundalk carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 21 points while Waterford sit 10 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dundalk. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Dundalk in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundalk having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 5 points from 13 matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 9:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Lonergan (3 goals), P. Amond (2 goals), Dean McMenamy (1 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), C. Noonan (1 assists), Evan McLaughlin (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundalk Analysis

Placed 4 with 21 points from 14 outings, Dundalk continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, while the 23:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Horgan (3 goals), Declan McDaid (3 goals), E. Kenny (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), G. Arubi (2 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 8 times, Dundalk won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:23 from Waterford's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Waterford wins 8, draws 4, Dundalk wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation