ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
02.05.2026 14:00
County Ground
Referee: S. Oldham
Swindon Town
Match Timeline
Chesterfield
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Thomas Wilson-Brown
Swindon Town
⚽
19'
L. Bonis · Assist: A. Dobra
Chesterfield
⚽
45'
B. Middlemas · Assist: A. Drinan
Swindon Town
🔄
46'
T. Nichols ↔ A. Borland
Swindon Town
🔄
46'
J. Knight-Lebel ↔ M. Olakigbe
Swindon Town
🔄
46'
K. McFadzean ↔ J. Donacien
Chesterfield
🟨
51'
Junior Hoilett
Swindon Town
🟨
58'
Ryan Stirk
Chesterfield
⚽
61'
D. Markanday · Assist: A. Dobra
Chesterfield
🔄
70'
L. Mandeville ↔ T. Naylor
Chesterfield
🔄
71'
J. Hoilett ↔ O. Palmer
Swindon Town
🔄
71'
T. Wilson-Brown ↔ J. Snowdon
Swindon Town
🟨
75'
Ben Middlemas
Swindon Town
🔄
76'
B. Middlemas ↔ D. Oldaker
Swindon Town
🟨
78'
Lee Bonis
Chesterfield
🔄
90+3'
L. Bonis ↔ W. Grigg
Chesterfield
🔄
90+3'
A. Dobra ↔ J. Berry-McNally
Chesterfield
🔄
90+4'
S. Braybrooke ↔ W. Dickson
Chesterfield

Swindon Town vs Chesterfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Swindon Town Win 41.4%
Draw 14.5%
Chesterfield Win 44.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swindon Town1.44
Chesterfield1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swindon Town Swindon Town
WWDLW
77 GF / 61 GA
Chesterfield Chesterfield
WLDWL
71 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
28
BTTS Yes
28
31
Over 2.5
21
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Swindon Town Swindon Town 48 matches
Chesterfield Chesterfield 47 matches
Swindon Town Statistic Chesterfield
24 Wins 21
9 Draws 16
15 Losses 10
77 Goals For 71
61 Goals Against 57
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
28 BTTS Yes 28
41 Over 1.5 34
31 Over 2.5 21
15 Over 3.5 14
14 Clean Sheets 15
7 Failed To Score 5
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.93
11.17 Total Shots 12.11
5 Corners 5.48
50.2% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Chesterfield. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Swindon Town expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Chesterfield in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chesterfield having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Swindon Town Analysis

From their first 45 matches, Swindon Town have collected 75 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 22 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 69:57 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Drinan (22 goals), O. Palmer (8 goals), O. Clarke (6 goals), with creative support from F. Munroe (6 assists), J. Snowdon (5 assists), D. Oldaker (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Chesterfield Analysis

Chesterfield are currently 7 in the standings with 76 points from 45 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 20 wins, 16 draws, and 9 losses, while the 69:55 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Bonis (12 goals), Tom Naylor (8 goals), D. Markanday (7 goals), with creative support from L. Mandeville (11 assists), D. Markanday (5 assists), D. Duffy (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Swindon Town won 6 times, Chesterfield won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Swindon Town's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.69 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Swindon Town 4-1-3-2 / Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Swindon Town wins 6, draws 2, Chesterfield wins 5

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
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